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Miami opens 11.5 point favorite at Cal

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I think the line is about right. 10-14 range is what I'd expect.

With that O/U of 56.5 that would put team totals at around 33-23 or 34-23.

I don't see it getting that high. I'm thinking 30-17 or something like that. I think under is the best play
 
JayCane20 said:
I think the line is about right. 10-14 range is what I'd expect.

With that O/U of 56.5 that would put team totals at around 33-23 or 34-23.

I don't see it getting that high. I'm thinking 30-17 or something like that. I think under is the best play
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I would take the total on the over if it's at 56.5. We can easily average over 40+ points a game. Against FBS comp it's like 39.5 points, and that's with some 3 turnovers/phantom holding call.

If the D (pause) isn't fixed then it's 100% going over, corrections on D (again...pause) and a UF score would be get you over too.
 
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CaneLife93 said:
I would take the total on the over if it's at 56.5. We can easily average over 40+ points a game. Against FBS comp it's like 39.5 points, and that's with some 3 turnovers/phantom holding call.

If the D (pause) isn't fixed then it's 100% going over, corrections on D (again...pause) and a UF score would be get you over too.
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A lot of metrics have Cal as the #1 most efficient defense in the ACC. If we score 40, we are 100000% winning. I have 30 as my realistic expectation this week. I think we win if we get 30. If we get 40, forget about it. Cal isn't scoring 40 on us without massive help from our offense or special teams.
 
CaneLife93 said:
I would take the total on the over if it's at 56.5. We can easily average over 40+ points a game. Against FBS comp it's like 39.5 points, and that's with some 3 turnovers/phantom holding call.

If the D (pause) isn't fixed then it's 100% going over, corrections on D (again...pause) and a UF score would be get you over too.
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If we score 40 and its just one of those games... I would bet Cal folded on offense too and it would be 42-10 type game.

I don't see it. Cal is good on defense and Wilcox is familiar with both Mario and Cam with 2 weeks to prepare while we're coming in hobbled and playing late on a coast to coast trip. I think we're lucky to get 30.

I will add that with Cal's familiarity with Mario/Ward, the road trip, the defense last week, and knowing Cal gets a ton of interceptions and turnovers in general...especially with Cam's turnovers last week and the impact on the game... I expect us to be overly conservative. Lots of trying to establish the run and telling Cam to check down or throw away. We know Cal's offense shouldn't threaten us. If they do, Ott would probably have to be 100%.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
A lot of metrics have Cal as the #1 most efficient defense in the ACC. If we score 40, we are 100000% winning. I have 30 as my realistic expectation this week. I think we win if we get 30. If we get 40, forget about it. Cal isn't scoring 40 on us without massive help from our offense or special teams.
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I think the metrics are a little misleading. Cal has played 2 P5 teams, Auburn and FSU. Cal racked up good defensive stats against UC Davis (FCS I believe) and SDSU (just awful this year). FSU may have one of the worst offenses I've ever seen, yet somehow they still managed to control the ball longer that Cal (30 min compared to 29 min).

Auburn has played 3 P5 teams (Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma). Auburn only scored 14 pts against both Cal and Arkansas, and 21 against Oklahoma. They don't have a good offense, so Cal holding them to 14 isn’t compelling evidence of a good D.

To illustrate this point further, UM is currently tied with Alabama in scoring defense. Does anyone really think that UM's defense is as good as Bama's?

I think UM is going to light them up. Ward has a different mentality than any other QB we've had in recent years. He knows this opponent and he knows how poorly he started the game last week. Not going to happen again.
 
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VT was arguably the best DL in the ACC (other than us)

we'll play arguably the best linebacker group in the ACC this weekend

let's see how good the OL and backs can operate
 
Squid Bumciorek said:
I think the metrics are a little misleading. Cal has played 2 P5 teams, Auburn and FSU. Cal racked up good defensive stats against UC Davis (FCS I believe) and SDSU (just awful this year). FSU may have one of the worst offenses I've ever seen, yet somehow they still managed to control the ball longer that Cal (30 min compared to 29 min).

Auburn has played 3 P5 teams (Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma). Auburn only scored 14 pts against both Cal and Arkansas, and 21 against Oklahoma. They don't have a good offense, so Cal holding them to 14 isn’t compelling evidence of a good D.

To illustrate this point further, UM is currently tied with Alabama in scoring defense. Does anyone really think that UM's defense is as good as Bama's?

I think UM is going to light them up. Ward has a different mentality than any other QB we've had in recent years. He knows this opponent and he knows how poorly he started the game last week. Not going to happen again.
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UC Davis went up 13-7 with under 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Cal took the KO back to take lead at 14-13 and never looked back.

SDSU’s lone win is TAMU Commerce. SDSU has scored 31 points in their 3 games vs FBS.

I won’t say we will light them up but am fully on board that they have played bums and haven’t really been impressive vs said bums.
 
We got our wake-up call IMO, We'll win a comfortable 31-13/17 type game.
Most other QB's would have gotten beaten up last week, Drone is good.
 
What's interesting about our line is that usually the pointspread and the ML are correlated, but right now at Pinnacle, we are -10 -109 with a ML of -434. Sam Houston State is -10.5 -107 with a ML of -426.

So Vegas (no, Pinnacle isn't in Vegas) has our game with a tighter spread, yet it costs you more to bet Miami to outright win than to bet Sam Houston State to do so.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
A lot of metrics have Cal as the #1 most efficient defense in the ACC. If we score 40, we are 100000% winning. I have 30 as my realistic expectation this week. I think we win if we get 30. If we get 40, forget about it. Cal isn't scoring 40 on us without massive help from our offense or special teams.
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Very good point - does their #1 efficient defense have anything to do with their competition or lack there of? Haven’t started watching some of their games but I know the FBS games were against Payton Thorne (Barf) and DJU (Double Barf).
 
407cane said:
VT was arguably the best DL in the ACC (other than us)

we'll play arguably the best linebacker group in the ACC this weekend

let's see how good the OL and backs can operate
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VT had the better DL on Friday. Our Canes DL should take that personally
 
JayCane20 said:
If we score 40 and its just one of those games... I would bet Cal folded on offense too and it would be 42-10 type game.

I don't see it. Cal is good on defense and Wilcox is familiar with both Mario and Cam with 2 weeks to prepare while we're coming in hobbled and playing late on a coast to coast trip. I think we're lucky to get 30.

I will add that with Cal's familiarity with Mario/Ward, the road trip, the defense last week, and knowing Cal gets a ton of interceptions and turnovers in general...especially with Cam's turnovers last week and the impact on the game... I expect us to be overly conservative. Lots of trying to establish the run and telling Cam to check down or throw away. We know Cal's offense shouldn't threaten us. If they do, Ott would probably have to be 100%.
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Very good points

I think that familiarity does go both ways though (no diddy)

One thing I didn’t look up is a historical match up between Wilcox and Mario and if Mario ever went over on the game totals? Would be an interesting data point.
 
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CaneLife93 said:
Very good point - does their #1 efficient defense have anything to do with their competition or lack there of? Haven’t started watching some of their games but I know the FBS games were against Payton Thorne (Barf) and DJU (Double Barf).
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Could be. Someone else had a similar thought above. They haven’t played a murderers row of offenses. But we haven’t played a murderers row of defenses.

I do think very highly of their DC, Peter Sirmon.
 
They beat Auburn at home game one.
Regardless it’s still a sec team at home.
if it’s a cakewalk then let’s go. But I’m done saying any team is an easy w.
 
Not falling for this again. Cal beat Auburn. We win another squeaker.
 
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