Miami opens 11.5 point favorite at Cal

[BeastMode]

Well, the line is now Miami -10 -105, ML is -415 at Pinnacle. Obviously, not a good sign since it opened -11 and has linearly dropped. In case you are wondering, no, it won’t close at or above -11. We just need to hope it doesn’t drop any more.

All signs point to upset. It is what it is.

Long road trip for the first time all year, beat up roster, 10:30pmest kick.

Time for the team to stand on business if they really want to be a championship team.

 

[BoxingRobes]

Well, the line is now Miami -10 -105, ML is -415 at Pinnacle. Obviously, not a good sign since it opened -11 and has linearly dropped. In case you are wondering, no, it won’t close at or above -11. We just need to hope it doesn’t drop any more.

I made mention of this earlier in the week.

Going to be closer than we think.

Long week. Long flight. Long wait.

ACC After Dark might still be haunted by same ghosts as Pac12 After Dark.

Beware. This is a tough game. Situationals are weird and we'll will be out of our comfort zone.

Just another test.

 

[Hoyacane1620]

Unfortunately, that’s what they do. They’ve forced a lot of turnovers.

7 of the 10 are against Auburn and San Diego State.

 

[bobbydigius]

We are going to skull **** them tonight. We are locked in and the talent gap is just too wide.

 

[scrantoncane]

Buy the dip.

Every podcast I heard all week liked Cal.

Miami looked human for the first time vs Va Tech and now the market is overreacting.

 

[ajkreider]

Take Cal and the money line. Money softens tears.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Take Cal and the money line. Money softens tears.

 

[JHallCanes]

Well, the line is now Miami -10 -105, ML is -415 at Pinnacle. Obviously, not a good sign since it opened -11 and has linearly dropped. In case you are wondering, no, it won’t close at or above -11. We just need to hope it doesn’t drop any more.

Not trying to be a **** here but…

Why do we “need to hope it doesn’t drop anymore”?

Like wtf does that have to do with the game? It’s still the same team and same situation it was a week ago

 

[ajkreider]

Not trying to be a **** here but…

Why do we “need to hope it doesn’t drop anymore”?

Like wtf does that have to do with the game? It’s still the same team and same situation it was a week ago

We don't. It's based on the knowledge of the sharps, which obviously isn't a thing. This isn't horse racing.

 

[JHallCanes]

We don't. It's based on the knowledge of the sharps, which obviously isn't a thing. This isn't horse racing.

Yeah I mean I understand how sports betting works so Im just cracking up at the “we need to hope it doesn’t drop anymore” line

I guess people being desperate to show off understanding handicapping makes them say weird things

 

[Poptimus]

Not trying to be a **** here but…

Why do we “need to hope it doesn’t drop anymore”?

Like wtf does that have to do with the game? It’s still the same team and same situation it was a week ago

Because, statistically, the more a line linearly moves from the open to the close, the more likely the move is correct.

 

[JamesQuall]

Not trying to be a **** here but…

Why do we “need to hope it doesn’t drop anymore”?

Like wtf does that have to do with the game? It’s still the same team and same situation it was a week ago

It reads like one of those “Miami only wins if it covers the spread or the over” posts.

Betting makes people say some weird ****.

 

[JHallCanes]

It reads like one of those “Miami only wins if it covers the spread or the over” posts.

Betting makes people say some weird ****.

Sports betting and fantasy football have made conversations painful

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Because, statistically, the more a line linearly moves from the open to the close, the more likely the move is correct.

This is ridiculously false. Laughably. But there are guys who do this for a living. If they’re not on the side you are, it’s not a great thing. But the best on the planet are right about 55% of the time. So even if Billy Walters dropped $1M on Cal +10.5, it’s still a coin flip they cover.

 

[JHallCanes]

Because, statistically, the more a line linearly moves from the open to the close, the more likely the move is correct.

Dude I understand that part

I’m just gonna let this go because I can tell this will get me nowhere

 

[Poptimus]

This is ridiculously false. Laughably. But there are guys who do this for a living. If they’re not on the side you are, it’s not a great thing. But the best on the planet are right about 55% of the time. So even if Billy Walters dropped $1M on Cal +10.5, it’s still a coin flip they cover.

I can see why you are confused if you are conflating a linear line move with a single bettor’s wager. Yes, Billy Walters may win 55% of the time, but the percentage he is right increases significantly when there is no opposition that causes the line to reverse as opposed to when the whole world is on the same side he is and it moves linearly from open to close.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

I can see why you are confused if you are conflating a linear line move with a single bettor’s wager. Yes, Billy Walters may win 55% of the time, but the percentage he is right increases significantly when there is no opposition that causes the line to reverse as opposed to when the whole world is on the same side he is and it moves linearly from open to close.

Just stop. Based off what you said originally, you have zero idea what you’re talking about. It’s ok. We’ll just let this one die. Go canes, enjoy the game.

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

We don't. It's based on the knowledge of the sharps, which obviously isn't a thing. This isn't horse racing.

IMO the more secretive a team is about injuries, depth chart, and game plan, the greater the edge for the insiders.

 

[M3N]

The past is the past, but also the past is good predictor of what’s coming. With that being said, we typically blow games when we are a double favorite.

Double digit favorite against VT at home and we won by 4.

Not too long ago we had 3 games where we were double digit favorites and outright lost the game. And I’m willing to bet those games were in October.

History says we lose this game.

Let’s see if Mario and staff are different from the prior regimes.

 

[WndyCityCane]

It’s the impact of the time zone on the staff (ok maybe #84 too), not the players that we should be concerned about. They’re undoubtedly going to have to fit in a Power Nap during the course of the game.

I’m of the belief, this game, is the reason we hired a time management coach!

****, I’m already trying to formulate a game plan for how my crusty old *** will be able to stay awake to watch this *****

Exactly! I am more worried about us seniors staying up too late. It can take days to recover!

Go Canes!!