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Geo's LifeWallet Sport Recruiting Buzz Twitter Space July 7, 2023

Lance Roffers said:
1. With Zo in place, they’ve started running it more like a pro room. What I mean by that is they’ve emphasized eyes on players and talking with them in person.

Having to “look” the part is becoming more important than under previous staffs.

2. For the most part, I subscribe to the wisdom of the crowd as being true. Marketplaces- in aggregate- tend to outperform single entities in the long run. Several books have been written on it.

So, with that, my point is that overall, Miami isn’t going to beat the market SOLELY by trying to be smarter. Simply put, you need dudes. Dudes who have that vividness that your grandma could evaluate them. Watch Francis Mauigoa move at his size for an example.

Where you CAN beat the market is in single, individual pockets. The players 15-25 in your class. Emphasize edges, players who have traits that have proven to be 35% successful vs. 30% for their neighbors etc.

When I evaluate a Miami class (all I can do is speak for myself through my eyes), I would often say that “he would not be a take for me” on at least the bottom five players. Sometimes more.

Last year I had zero players I said wouldn’t be a take for me. This year I have one (Juan Minaya, but I acknowledge there is a dearth of tackles in 2023).

Winning against like-minded peers is all about finding edges. Variance will come into play and there’s nothing you can do about it, but having sound process in place might result in one extra key player per class than your competitors without that process. This might not sound like a lot, but can be a razor margin that builds on itself over time.

To finally answer: I think there is evidence to suggest this staff will evaluate better than recruiting sites will (beating the market). Keep in mind recruiting sites utilize offers to shape their rankings more than they do film, which means you are evaluating better than your peers if you’re beating the market.

As far as development goes, I’m not sure I can say I have much evidence that they develop better than their peers. I DO think there is evidence they can develop better than their predecessors. You saw several players take massive steps forward under the staff last year without too many steps back.
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Strong work here. Thanks dude
 
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Lance Roffers said:
Allow me to explain my stance (which is totally cool to disagree with of course):

Russell is a versatile player (7T SSDE/5T,4i,3T) who is already a bull. I'm a succor for an edge-setting SSDE who can hold up inside as well. He has actual tape spilling a run vs. a puller, actual tape holding up a gap and a half technique, actual tape with a long-arm controlling a T and coming off for a tackle. He has actual tape with eyes seeing the ball on fakes (rather than blindly chasing the ball fake). He has legitimate production against very good competition at a school important to recruiting.

Add to it the fact that more than half of sacks come off of motor (just simply chasing and playing hard the entire play) rather than speed or straight beating an OL and I like him fine. I cannot speak to his character, but that came up immediately when I spoke to someone who does have an opinion on his character.

Players that surpass their measurables almost always do so because of play character and work ethic.

Minaya, I get the appeal. He's a straight butt-kicker. It's difficult to be consistent in your words 100% of the time because you could find me saying in the past that the #1 thing I want to see from any OL is domination of HS players in 1-on-1 plays. Minaya has that and Plazz doesn't really have that on tape.

The difference for me is that Minaya does not have the feet or movement skills I'd prefer, personally. I spoke in an earlier post about looking for traits that move success percentage from 30% to 35% etc. and one of them for OL that my research has found is movement skills in the short shuttle. Plazz has that on tape, whereas Minaya does not.

I view Minaya as a lower probability player, with Plazz and Russell a tick higher percentiles of positive outcomes and that's where I make my evaluation decision.

As everyone knows, I get some wrong (I'd be rich if I didn't). Let's hope I'm wrong on Minaya and you and others can give me a hard time about it in a few years.
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Thanks for your input, I always appreciate your post. Would your opinion of Minaya be different if he is a guard not tackle?
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
This is where I put my foot down. This is a comical spin zone considering NIL and the stark recruiting advantage we should have with Mario.

Mike Norvell cannot recruit high school players. Like, he sucks donkey balls. I think half of CIS can recruit better.

2020: Norvell’s 2020 transition class ranked 22nd nationally on the 247composite. They had 25 signees and 13 of them (yes, over 50%) are no longer on the roster. There were eight blue-chippers, and five of them bolted. Poor recruiting and poor evaluations ✅

2021: Norvell bump class ranked 23rd on the 247composite. 17 signees, only 9 are on the active roster today. Poor recruiting and poor evaluations ✅

2022: Composite class ranks 21st. Blue chip ratio drops to 35%. Infamous Travis Hunter de-commitment along with Nyjalik Kelly, Trevion Williams, Nicco Marchiol, Aliou Bah, etc. Poor recruiting ✅ (too early for evaluations in fairness).

2023: FSU off an amazing season…19th ranked class on 247Composite. De commitments from Cedric Baxter, Gabe Harris, Keldric Faulk, Rod Kearney. Poor recruiting ✅ (too early for evaluations in fairness).

The dude. Cannot. Recruit. It’s been said ad nauseam, everyone on here makes fun of him and has done so for years in regards to his corny demeanor and vanilla/uninspiring recruiting tactics…but now we want to change the narrative? Off a double-digit win season, he barely scrapes the top 20 and most of his best players are pillaged? C’mon man. Mario Cristobal has no excuse to finish behind Norvell in high school recruiting. None. Zero.
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I'd be curious to see what the retention rate of say us, some elites, and whomever else you want to throw in.

I'm not defending who or what FSU has taken or kept over a 4nor 5 year period, but this is a new day. Kids leave schools all the time and I'd bet the number that stay at their initial school hovers somewhere in the 55 to 60 percent range.

No big deal if you don't want to do it or are busy, I get that. Your post just made me wonder how the portal has affected roster stability. Clemson would be another I would be interested in seeing. I looked at Bama's raw 4 year class size and they had 106. 5 years it's at 133.
 
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Damiencane86 said:
Fair enough. But as another posted pointed out, Norvell isn't the only coach to win 10 games then fade or have his tenure fall apart completely afterwards so let's see how the season plays out.
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I hope he falls flat, but I understand his perceived strategy of going portal if he isn’t a top HS recruiter because it makes sense vs banging his head off the wall … wins and FSU will help him recruit HS
 
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RyanCane26 said:
For those saying Norvell sucks at HS recruiting what are your thoughts on H2H wins vs. Mario such as Hykeem Williams, Conrad Hussey, Edwin Joseph?
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You mean Hussey who couldn’t come because of the JT - Aquinas issue so he would up at FSU and Joseph who we didn’t have a spot for til very late?

Norvell has lost to Miami alone:
- Jaylen Knighton
- Jalen Harrell
- Isaiah Dunson
- Nyjalik Kelly
- Jaleel Skinner
- Wes Bissanthe
- Rueben Bain
- Damari Brown

I’m sure I’m missing a ton. That’s just us, not even other programs.
 
RyanCane26 said:
For those saying Norvell sucks at HS recruiting what are your thoughts on H2H wins vs. Mario such as Hykeem Williams, Conrad Hussey, Edwin Joseph?
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Hussey was a technicality. Winning two battles even a huge one like Hykeem are just blips on a radar. The numbers don’t lie, he is a not a very good recruiter.
 
RyanCane26 said:
For those saying Norvell sucks at HS recruiting what are your thoughts on H2H wins vs. Mario such as Hykeem Williams, Conrad Hussey, Edwin Joseph?
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I think it’s debatable that he beat us h2h for hussey. But for the other two, yeah. Still bummed that we didn’t land joseph.
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
FSU feels good on McCray?

Lord if they finish with a better recruiting class than us…it’s going to be ugly in here. And I’ll be right there ****ed the f^ck off. Unacceptable to finish last amongst the Big 3 Florida schools with what is allegedly HANDS DOWN the best recruiter in the state.
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0 chance the Gata finishes with a better class than us with the incoming season they are about to have. Its going to be ugly
 
McCray would be a huge miss. This won't be a bad class but I have a feeling it's not gonna be as highly rated as ppl think. One thing about Mario though is he keeps chopping wood, hopefully the hardwork pays off.
 
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JOE'CANE said:
McCray would be a huge miss. This won't be a bad class but I have a feeling it's not gonna be as highly rated as ppl think. One thing about Mario though is he keeps chopping wood, hopefully the hardwork pays off.
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Can you call a kid from that area a miss? Either way we need to get a great DT class and the clock been ticking.
 
DC3 said:
0 chance the Gata finishes with a better class than us with the incoming season they are about to have. Its going to be ugly
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I think the season will be abysmal for them but they have money this cycle and prob overpaying as they have to like we do. The extra money might keep their class together. These kids want to get paid as they should so cant discount that.
 
bobbydigius said:
Ehhh, you sure? If the NIL packages are right I think they can hold on and sell Lagway as the future. I agree it will get bumpy though but I don’t think it’s a given their class falls apart.
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If Lagway goes high enough in the MLB draft, he may never step foot on campus.
 
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