Amazing how they’ve penciled Lane in as their coach and by that achievement, Lagway stays. Do we think they have a good likelihood of landing Lane?
I think that we have to look at this in the big picture.
Kiffin is almost 50. This is his 28th year of coaching. His father was a big factor in his life, and to prevent Lane Train from quitting football (as a college player), Monte forced him to become a student assistant coach for Jeff Tedford. Monte Kiffin was a longtime assistant coach and only had one short stint as a head coach for NC State in the early 80s. Monte passed away earlier this year.
In some ways, Lane Train has been similar to his dad, moving around and taking a bunch of jobs. Monte's longest stints were at Nebraska early in his career and with the Tampa Bay Bucs later in his career. Monte coached over a 48 year span, only taking a couple of gap years late in his career. In some other ways, Lane Train has surpassed his father, certainly having taken on more head coaching roles. But I highly doubt that he wants to pursue another 20 years of coaching, particularly as a head coach.
Lane Train also has a reputation for being somewhat lazy, so I'm not sure that going into his 50s with a high-pressure job is how he wants to do things. By his own admission, he has only gotten clean and sober since he has been at Ole Miss. And while his EX father-in-law is Gator legend John Reaves, going to Florida might bring some extra levels of stress and expectations into his life that he really doesn't need right now. His five years at Ole Miss constitute his longest head coaching tenure, and by next year would equal the longest time he has spent coaching in one location (USC 2001-2006). He may be looking for his "Tampa Bay job" like what his father had in his 50s (he took the Bucs job when he was 55).
Finally, let's look at Lane Train's current situation. Last time Lane Train was angling for a job in Florida, he has only been at Ole Miss for 2 years, with one good year and one .500 year. Now he is being paid $9M per year and has a legitimate shot to make the CFP field of 12. He no longer needs to "beat Alabama" to make the SEC-CG/CFP field and he is eligible for the College Football Hall of Fame (100 wins and above .600 winning percentage). And Lane Train has made a LOT of money as a head coach at various locations, sometimes being paid to go away, and only recently finding peace and sobriety in Oxford, Mississippi.
So, with all of that being said, I do not think this is a slam dunk. Might Lane Train want to win a National Championship? Perhaps. Is it about the money? How much does any person need at his age with his prior-year annual income and the 365-day-nature of a college coaching job? Might he be looking for one last challenge? Possibly, but at his EX-father-in-law's alma mater? Talk about daddy issues.
I don't think Florida will pay Lane Train "so much more" money than Ole Miss can and will. I don't think he has some amazing coaching tree to fall back on. Lane Train (as an SEC rival) has seen (and probably negative-recruited against) Florida's hesitancy to spend money on facilities until very recently, and he knows the NIL program in Hogtown is a mess. And he has a very good agent who can use Florida's interest to maximize his earnings at Ole Miss.
I never underestimate Lane Train's tendency to lust after a better job, even though I don't think the job in Hogtown is "better" than the one he has now, given CFP expansion and division-less SEC scheduling. I think that the professional and personal worlds of Lane Train Kiffin have changed over the past 5 years, and he is best-served by spending another 5 years in Oxford and then moving to the broadcast booth before his good looks and funny quips desert him. If Lane Train stays at Ole Miss for 5 more years, he banks $50M. I don't think a single Gator coach since Urban Myth has lasted 4 full years.
It could happen. I'm putting the odds at less than 50-50, which is far lower than "posting on Gator sites as if it's a done-deal".
Gonna be fun to watch, though...