For those who say we need an "offensive coach"

Not sure why so many people are arguing. What the man posted is irrefutable. Defense wins championships. Always has, always will.

Fix the defense, improve our short yardage offense (3rd down/goalline).. which will fix the TOP issue. It really is that simple.
 
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Not sure why so many people are arguing. What the man posted is irrefutable. Defense wins championships. Always has, always will.

Fix the defense, improve our short yardage offense (3rd down/goalline).. which will fix the TOP issue. It really is that simple.

Because the stats that he posted say that offense is equally important.
 
People can question those campaigning for an offensive-minded hire like Herman.

Houston is actually 17th in both offensive and defensive yards per play. That balance is one of the reasons I'm so high on Herman.

His defense seems to be very stingy thus far. Even when they struggled at the beginning of the UCF game the defense kept UCF off the board and then the offense turned it on and it was another blow out.

I realize Herman is doing this at a second tier school and people are anxious because we took Golden from a second tier conference and people don't want to make that mistake again. Herman seems to be the anti Golden IMO. He's aggressive, won a title as an OC, learned from one of the best college coaches in the game, and seems to have that killer instinct we haven't seen here in over a decade.

Herman is the guy. As far as I can tell he's the only candidate that we can know for sure will have a top notch oc and dc (todd orlando). No wondering or guessing, oc and dc are taken care of. With Butch, who knows who we'll be getting as oc. He hired John Shoop to run his last offense.
 
Half of the teams in your stats actually rated HIGHER in yard per play on offense VS. defense, so not really sure what your stat proves.

It shows that championship teams are great at both, and that our offense is a lot closer to that level than our defense.

It also disproves the notion that it's "an offensive game now." Three of the past four champions were first overall on defense.
Yet none of those "great" defenses were truly great defenses. Great defenses used to hold teams to 9 points. When people tell you the game has changed and that it's an offensive game just look at how the defensive numbers sharply declined recently. No one is holding teams to 9 points per game.

Now, look at offensive numbers and how they've skyrocketed recently. If you can't see that change then you're not looking because you're **** bent on a heel dig to get your defense mantra over. The game has changed dramatically over the last ten years.

Take your Bama defenses for example. If you try to line up and play power football with them you make them look great. Look at how they mangle your traditional old time line up and smash it at em offenses.

Same thing every year with Bama. Then, when they face a diverse offense that spreads then out and negates their brute power and tests their coverage they don't look like a great defense. They've been carved up regularly by spread offenses that run and can throw the ball. Not so much when you line up and play into their strength.

No one with a shred of intelligence is arguing that UM should ignore defense so I don't know why you're so **** bent on proving that defense is important. Of course it is. No one has argued otherwise.

All that most of us are saying is that you're not going to dominate football on that side of the ball anymore. You get some key stops, you play good 3rd down D, and you force turnovers. No one is suffocating anyone with defense anymore.

No one smart wants a guy like Kingsbury, who fields teams that don't even tackle. And no one smart wants a guy who is clueless offensively.

I would prefer an offensive whiz because that's the hardest thing to build and to keep humming if you lose a coordinator. I also want to be able to face a team that might have more talent that year like an Alabama or Ohio State or FSU and be able to equalize things with a high octane offense. Those offenses were built to negate the talent advantage that some teams have.

No one has given me a good argument against Gary Patterson and his choice to join the high octane offense ranks. That dude is a genius in my book and certainly way more football astute than any of us on here. That guy was all about the defense first approach his whole career. He actually came out and said in an interview "if you can't beat em join em" when he opted to start spreading it out and throwing more.

Couldn't of said it better.

I'm a defensive guy, played defense, always liked defensive games . Personally ,I prefer physical football.

But I understand the game has changed, the rules are slanted to offense. And the numbers prove it, every year the points get higher.

The key to defense now is hold teams to fg's, and try to force turnovers. The days of dominating defense is over.
 
Yards per play is one of my favorite stats. It captures the effectiveness of a unit independent of other factors, like pace. For example, Alabama's 2012 offense ranked only 44th in total yards. But they were 7th in the nation in yards per play.

Yards per play correlates with championships. Here are the last twelve champions and their national rankings in offensive and defensive yards per play:

'14 Ohio State (4th in offense, 11th in defense)
'13 FSU (1st in offense, 1st in defense)
'12 Alabama (7th in offense, 1st in defense)
'11 Alabama (10th in offense, 1st in defense)
'10 Auburn (3rd in offense, 47th in defense)
'09 Alabama (28th in offense, 7th in defense)
'08 Florida (7th in offense, 10th in defense)
'07 LSU (34th in offense, 5th in defense)
'06 Florida (18th in offense, 12th in defense)
'05 Texas (2nd in offense, 9th in defense)
'04 USC (7th in offense, 4th in defense)
'03 USC (6th in offense, 9th in defense)

Three of the last four champions finished first in the nation in yards per play allowed. Nine of the past twelve finished in the Top 10, and only Cam Newton's Auburn team finished outside the Top 15.

Which brings me to Miami. Since the Golden era began, Miami's offense is 10th nationally in yards per play. The only Power 5 teams above Miami are Baylor, Oregon, FSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia and Wisconsin.

The defense hasn't fared as well. They are 74th in the nation over the same period.

Whoever we get needs to fix the defense, immediately. It is the most pressing issue facing the program.

I completely agree on the defense point.

On the other hand, yards per play does not reflect 3rd down efficiency and short yardage issues, which have been a constant stank around here for quite some time.

I like 'ole Kehoe....but like we need a recruiting / development upgrade at DT, it is time to get some road graters that can do more than occasionally pass block and open the occasional running lane on 1st or 2nd down. Alot also has to do with quality playcalling with timing....but we need to reinvent our trenches.

UM
 
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Yards per play is one of my favorite stats. It captures the effectiveness of a unit independent of other factors, like pace. For example, Alabama's 2012 offense ranked only 44th in total yards. But they were 7th in the nation in yards per play.

Yards per play correlates with championships. Here are the last twelve champions and their national rankings in offensive and defensive yards per play:

'14 Ohio State (4th in offense, 11th in defense)
'13 FSU (1st in offense, 1st in defense)
'12 Alabama (7th in offense, 1st in defense)
'11 Alabama (10th in offense, 1st in defense)
'10 Auburn (3rd in offense, 47th in defense)
'09 Alabama (28th in offense, 7th in defense)
'08 Florida (7th in offense, 10th in defense)
'07 LSU (34th in offense, 5th in defense)
'06 Florida (18th in offense, 12th in defense)
'05 Texas (2nd in offense, 9th in defense)
'04 USC (7th in offense, 4th in defense)
'03 USC (6th in offense, 9th in defense)

Three of the last four champions finished first in the nation in yards per play allowed. Nine of the past twelve finished in the Top 10, and only Cam Newton's Auburn team finished outside the Top 15.

Which brings me to Miami. Since the Golden era began, Miami's offense is 10th nationally in yards per play. The only Power 5 teams above Miami are Baylor, Oregon, FSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia and Wisconsin.

The defense hasn't fared as well. They are 74th in the nation over the same period.

Whoever we get needs to fix the defense, immediately. It is the most pressing issue facing the program.

I completely agree on the defense point.

On the other hand, yards per play does not reflect 3rd down efficiency and short yardage issues, which have been a constant stank around here for quite some time.

I like 'ole Kehoe....but like we need a recruiting / development upgrade at DT, it is time to get some road graters that can do more than occasionally pass block and open the occasional running lane on 1st or 2nd down. Alot also has to do with quality playcalling with timing....but we need to reinvent our trenches.

UM

**** yards per play. here is points against. and it tells the same story

Untitled.webp
 
I love YPP as a catch-all stat. But, like all stats, it needs context.

Personally, I'd like to do a study where I parse the data to take out all non-FBS games, then compile data for the opponents the excludes their stats against the opponent in question (for instance if I'm evaluating Herman I'd take out how teams fared against Houston).

After creating this data set I'd like to take into consideration "explosive" plays. The reason you do this for context. A team can compile: 1, 1, 1, 1, 70 yard plays and average the same YPP as a team that goes 15, 15, 15, 15, 15. Obviously the latter is the mark of a better offense.

Once that data set is parsed to it's conclusion, I'd like to see a standard deviation of how the teams fared on both offense and defense against their opponents.

The final step would be to calculate the standard delta (standard deviation of the standard deviations). This tells you an excellent look at how consistently excellent teams are against a similar quality of opponent to their resources and talent (generally peer institutions within your conference).

For me, that's the best way to evaluate the impact a coach truly has on a team and program and whether they are consistently good, or play to their competition. I don't care if Baylor puts up 8 yards per play against the dregs and then their Delta against the entirety of their opponents is 2+ (which means extremely varied).
 
Yards per play is one of my favorite stats. It captures the effectiveness of a unit independent of other factors, like pace. For example, Alabama's 2012 offense ranked only 44th in total yards. But they were 7th in the nation in yards per play.

Yards per play correlates with championships. Here are the last twelve champions and their national rankings in offensive and defensive yards per play:

'14 Ohio State (4th in offense, 11th in defense)
'13 FSU (1st in offense, 1st in defense)
'12 Alabama (7th in offense, 1st in defense)
'11 Alabama (10th in offense, 1st in defense)
'10 Auburn (3rd in offense, 47th in defense)
'09 Alabama (28th in offense, 7th in defense)
'08 Florida (7th in offense, 10th in defense)
'07 LSU (34th in offense, 5th in defense)
'06 Florida (18th in offense, 12th in defense)
'05 Texas (2nd in offense, 9th in defense)
'04 USC (7th in offense, 4th in defense)
'03 USC (6th in offense, 9th in defense)

Three of the last four champions finished first in the nation in yards per play allowed. Nine of the past twelve finished in the Top 10, and only Cam Newton's Auburn team finished outside the Top 15.

Which brings me to Miami. Since the Golden era began, Miami's offense is 10th nationally in yards per play. The only Power 5 teams above Miami are Baylor, Oregon, FSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia and Wisconsin.

The defense hasn't fared as well. They are 74th in the nation over the same period.

Whoever we get needs to fix the defense, immediately. It is the most pressing issue facing the program.

I completely agree on the defense point.

On the other hand, yards per play does not reflect 3rd down efficiency and short yardage issues, which have been a constant stank around here for quite some time.

I like 'ole Kehoe....but like we need a recruiting / development upgrade at DT, it is time to get some road graters that can do more than occasionally pass block and open the occasional running lane on 1st or 2nd down. Alot also has to do with quality playcalling with timing....but we need to reinvent our trenches.

UM

**** yards per play. here is points against. and it tells the same story

View attachment 33468

Take a look at success rate, which accounts for all of the things you are opining about here.
 
you are over thinking it. it is quite simple who ever scores more and gives up less points wins. however, when you get into an even competition game whoever can make the most stops will win.
 
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What I take from from that:

Having a high level offense AND defense wins Championships. Both are equally important.
 
I love YPP as a catch-all stat. But, like all stats, it needs context.

Personally, I'd like to do a study where I parse the data to take out all non-FBS games, then compile data for the opponents the excludes their stats against the opponent in question (for instance if I'm evaluating Herman I'd take out how teams fared against Houston).

After creating this data set I'd like to take into consideration "explosive" plays. The reason you do this for context. A team can compile: 1, 1, 1, 1, 70 yard plays and average the same YPP as a team that goes 15, 15, 15, 15, 15. Obviously the latter is the mark of a better offense.

Once that data set is parsed to it's conclusion, I'd like to see a standard deviation of how the teams fared on both offense and defense against their opponents.

The final step would be to calculate the standard delta (standard deviation of the standard deviations). This tells you an excellent look at how consistently excellent teams are against a similar quality of opponent to their resources and talent (generally peer institutions within your conference).

For me, that's the best way to evaluate the impact a coach truly has on a team and program and whether they are consistently good, or play to their competition. I don't care if Baylor puts up 8 yards per play against the dregs and then their Delta against the entirety of their opponents is 2+ (which means extremely varied).

You should post more.
 
Agree with D$, I want a defensive coach. It is much easier to build a good offense, it is far harder to have a good defense and if you have a good defense you can win a lot of football games in college.
 
'14 Ohio State (4th in offense, 11th in defense)
'13 FSU (1st in offense, 1st in defense)
'12 Alabama (7th in offense, 1st in defense)
'11 Alabama (10th in offense, 1st in defense)
'10 Auburn (3rd in offense, 47th in defense)
'09 Alabama (28th in offense, 7th in defense)
'08 Florida (7th in offense, 10th in defense)
'07 LSU (34th in offense, 5th in defense)
'06 Florida (18th in offense, 12th in defense)
'05 Texas (2nd in offense, 9th in defense)
'04 USC (7th in offense, 4th in defense)
'03 USC (6th in offense, 9th in defense)

I'm not sure how you filtered the stats but some of this isn't exactly correct according to cfbstats (which is what I found to be the best site)

Ohio st (6th in offense, 25th in defense)
FSU (1st in offense, 2nd in defense)
Bama (5th in offense, 2nd in defense)
Bama (12th in offense, 1st in defense)
Auburn (3rd in offense, 56th in defense)
Bama (32nd if offense, 4th in defense)
UF (3rd in offense, 10th in defense)

Average (Offense: 8.87, Defense: 13.71)

All this proves is that you need elite units on both sides of the ball most of the time to win championships. Every team outside Alabama actually had a higher ranked O then D the years they won the title. I don't see how these numbers support that defense is more important then offense.
 
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And last years teams to make playoffs:

Offense: 2nd, 6th, 14th, 25th Average: 11.75
Defense: 18th, 25th, 63rd, 64th Average: 42.75
 
It's all about 3rd down conversion and TDs in the red zone. Pull those stats!
 
I'm not sure how you filtered the stats but some of this isn't exactly correct according to cfbstats

I use TeamRankings.com for the yearly stats and College-Football-Reference.com for the multi-year stats.

And the point isn't that defense is more important than offense. The point is that you need to be great at both, and our defense needs much more work than our offense.
 
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It seems you like Butch, Herman, and Strong the most based on your recent posts. Are they your top 3 choices, assuming Hue Jackson's not going to be in the picture since the year he's having in Cincinnati will likely set him up for NFL head-coaching opportunities?

Yes. Butch gives us a proven process at a time when we can't afford failure. Strong is similar to Butch but I have less faith in his ability to assemble a staff. Herman just seems like the next Urban Meyer with his overall approach, from the offense to recruiting.

I'd rank them Butch, Herman and then Strong.

Do you care at all that Herman (actually Todd Orlando) runs a 3-4 defense? It doesn't bother me, it actually looks like a well coached defense and ran the way a 3-4 is supposed to be. It's not the Al Groh special we are used to the last 5 years. Seems that is a lot of people's only knock on Herman, but I like Todd Orlando, I'd assume he would follow Herman to Miami. Are you fine with his version of the 3-4 or would you still favor the 4-3? Or even Strong's 3-3-5 he ran at Louisville?
 
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I'm not sure how you filtered the stats but some of this isn't exactly correct according to cfbstats

I use TeamRankings.com for the yearly stats and College-Football-Reference.com for the multi-year stats.

And the point isn't that defense is more important than offense. The point is that you need to be great at both, and our defense needs much more work than our offense.

I guess I'd disagree with that. I think both units are getting below average coaching, on defense some of the worst in the country.

I actually think there is more top end talent on the D then the O. Its should be a pretty quick turnaround with good coaching.
 
And last years teams to make playoffs:

Offense: 2nd, 6th, 14th, 25th Average: 11.75
Defense: 18th, 25th, 63rd, 64th Average: 42.75

Regardless of what it is, the proof is there that our offense is good enough to win. The defense is truly holding this team back. It needs to be addressed. No excuse what so ever for a team that should be recruiting the **** out of Sfla for our defense to be as bad as it is.
 
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