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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

SaiyaMan305 said:
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I love Flo but on conference realignment his takes are really bad unless he is trying to make it seem like we are choosing the Big 12 and not forced into it as some sort of "win". A full share in the Big 12 is still less than a half share in the Big 10. Also all numbers on this chart would go down as the money would also need to be shared with the added teams.

Flo's whole thing is that the Big 12 can renegotiate the deal if they add teams which is a huge risk to agree to if you dont have a number from the network what if the negotiated number is less than thought? You are now stuck in a **** conference until 2031.

POWER 2 OR RIOT.
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It’s not a re negotiation. Big12 has a “per rata clause” in contract, which awards big 12 for expanding. If Miami were to join Big 12 they would get a full share which would be added to the tv contract not subtracted from the other schools. If Miami went to big 10 it would be at a discount rate like Oregon and Washington until contract was seen thru or renegotiated because they would have to take from other school’s disbursements. Thats why big 10 and sec aren’t really in a rush to add schools at the moment
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
This isn’t 2004. Recruits care almost exclusively about NIL. Doesn’t matter the conference. When UM is winning the Big 12, making playoff runs, and getting tons of national buzz, it isn’t going to significantly affect UMs recruiting. Welcome to the free agency era.
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How are we going to generate “national buzz” when 80% of viewership will be on the P2? What, we’re gonna generate it with our new rivalry against UCF, or a scrappy game with Baylor?

And how would it not affect recruiting? We go head to head with Michigan, OSU, FSU, UF etc. and they match our NIL for a recruit. That recruit is gonna spur the P2 to come play for us against the Houston’s of the world?

Also, free agency in the NFL has one underlying assumption that’s being looked over. Which is that regardless of the team, it’s still the NFL. The portal in CFB will be the tier 1 P2 teams, with the scraps and projects going to Tier 2 B12 teams. It’s nothing like NFL free agency, because we’d be the G-League. And any finds in a Top 15-20 class that we’d be able to get would bolt for the portal the next season to the Tier 1.

It would be nice to be in the CFP. But in the B12 what would follow is us losing in a blowout, and a national narrative that Miami couldn’t get it with the best.
 
FL Cane said:
How are we going to generate “national buzz” when 80% of viewership will be on the P2? What, we’re gonna generate it with our new rivalry against UCF, or a scrappy game with Baylor?

And how would it not affect recruiting? We go head to head with Michigan, OSU, FSU, UF etc. and they match our NIL for a recruit. That recruit is gonna spur the P2 to come play for us against the Houston’s of the world?

Also, free agency in the NFL has one underlying assumption that’s being looked over. Which is that regardless of the team, it’s still the NFL. The portal in CFB will be the tier 1 P2 teams, with the scraps and projects going to Tier 2 B12 teams. It’s nothing like NFL free agency, because we’d be the G-League. And any finds in a Top 15-20 class that we’d be able to get would bolt for the portal the next season to the Tier 1.

It would be nice to be in the CFP. But in the B12 what would follow is us losing in a blowout, and a national narrative that Miami couldn’t get it with the best.
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Why are you wasting energy bro
 
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TooColdToHold said:
He also said that Miami, Va Tech, Louisville, and two other ACC schools have been talking to the Big 12.
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From what I remember (and I haven’t watched them in a while) Flo has always said he mainly knows recruiting. I don’t think he’s the best source for something that’s clearly being kept under wraps.
 
BCntyCane said:
It’s not a re negotiation. Big12 has a “per rata clause” in contract, which awards big 12 for expanding. If Miami were to join Big 12 they would get a full share which would be added to the tv contract not subtracted from the other schools. If Miami went to big 10 it would be at a discount rate like Oregon and Washington until contract was seen thru or renegotiated because they would have to take from other school’s disbursements. Thats why big 10 and sec aren’t really in a rush to add schools at the moment
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This is incorrect, pretty sure. the Pro Rata clause in the B12 contract was only agreed to by ESPN which is about 2/3rd of the B12 payout. Fox does not have that agreement with B12. ESPN pays about $20M while Fox pays $11.7M per school. Also I'm not fully sure, but think I remember the pro rata clause was only for Four P5 program additions from ESPN (and maybe 2 from Fox?) - all of which were met when b12 added Colorado, Arizona, ASU, and Utah. Now maybe Fox has agreed to the $11.7M payouts for adding those programs. I'd think they would. So there is no guarantee any ACC school gets a full Payout from B12. Having said that, we absolutely would. Having said THAT, there is no guarantee it's even more than the ACC payouts (even without FSU/Clemson) which would also be performance based now, OR the B10 even if half share for a few years.

Also the B10 has an escalator clause that absolutely already has an agreed to payout increase as they expand. It is just likely not a blanket P5 expansion like the B12 has. It likely named specific schools - like ND...
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
I think Flo explained it a few weeks ago and he was on point. UM will go to whoever is offering the most money. If that’s the Big12, then it’s where we end up. Taking a discount just to say we are in the P2 is not going to happen because UM expects the P2 to become a P1 in 6 years . Will be one giant mega conference. My personal guess is it will be like the NFL, Fox gets some teams (former B1G), espn gets former SEC, they horse trade the rest and split the profits 50/50.
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This is where I also think we are eventually headed....the top 40-60 teams will break away in football only
 
rascon said:
I’m still not convinced the ACC is going to disappear… yet.
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Might not "disappear" but it will be a rag tag conference made up of teams not able to get into the P2, some will bail to the B12 (Louisville specifically) and the ACC media payout will be $15M less than today (or even less).
 
BCntyCane said:
It’s not a re negotiation. Big12 has a “per rata clause” in contract, which awards big 12 for expanding. If Miami were to join Big 12 they would get a full share which would be added to the tv contract not subtracted from the other schools. If Miami went to big 10 it would be at a discount rate like Oregon and Washington until contract was seen thru or renegotiated because they would have to take from other school’s disbursements. Thats why big 10 and sec aren’t really in a rush to add schools at the moment
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and Oregon and Washington's panic has a ripple effect on us....I will always root against those 2 now
 
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Badbart43 said:
and Oregon and Washington's panic has a ripple effect on us....I will always root against those 2 now
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as if you didn't previously?

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Rickd said:
Disagree ... kids want to be on TV ... and starting in 2026 the B12 / ACC "whatever" won't be getting any viewership compared to the P2 programs, maybe 20%, and it will be a rare 4-5 star player that will go to a non P2 program in that era that is on the horizon.
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Exactly.

We have some incredibly ignorant and short-sighted porsters who are trying to **** on us and tell us that it's just warm warm Big 12 rain...

The reality is that once the Big 10 and SEC have strangleholds on all the best Saturday timeslots, all these "I only love NIL" players who sign with "Big 12 Dominant Miami" are going to have to tell their families to tune in on Thursday nights on the CW...

The Big 12 is going to be a disaster, no matter what the corporate name of the conference is, or which non-P2 teams they take.
 
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n0rcalcane said:
Familiar face saying something? Better not be back to making the same stupid decisions over and over again.
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Beta Blake is about to announce that Boston College will be the flagship school for Anta brand shoes and apparel. They have a most-favored-nation clause too, which BB will promptly ignore.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Exactly.

We have some incredibly ignorant and short-sighted porsters who are trying to **** on us and tell us that it's just warm warm Big 12 rain...

The reality is that once the Big 10 and SEC have strangleholds on all the best Saturday timeslots, all these "I only love NIL" players who sign with "Big 12 Dominant Miami" are going to have to tell their families to tune in on Thursday nights on the CW...

The Big 12 is going to be a disaster, no matter what the corporate name of the conference is, or which non-P2 teams they take.
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And it's not just the "best Saturday time slots" ... it begins this Fall with the Big 10 introducing "Friday Night Football". They will have Big 10 games on at least 9 Friday nights ... so no more "BC vs Wake Forest" on Friday nights. The P2 will first lock up all OTA (over the air) free national TV time slots, then the prime cable time slots. By 2026 any B12 / ACC regional game will be seen exclusively on Peacock streaming or some new ESPN XYZ streaming app ... only. The P2 games will regularly get 4-5 million viewers, and big brand matchups will be getting 10-15 million viewers, simply due to programming. The B12 / ACC will be getting 400,000- 600,000 max viewers per game. Media rights will plummet. So will recruiting.
 
Rickd said:
And it's not just the "best Saturday time slots" ... it begins this Fall with the Big 10 introducing "Friday Night Football". They will have Big 10 games on at least 9 Friday nights ... so no more "BC vs Wake Forest" on Friday nights. The P2 will first lock up all OTA (over the air) free national TV time slots, then the prime cable time slots. By 2026 any B12 / ACC regional game will be seen exclusively on Peacock streaming or some new ESPN XYZ streaming app ... only. The P2 games will regularly get 4-5 million viewers, and big brand matchups will be getting 10-15 million viewers, simply due to programming. The B12 / ACC will be getting 400,000- 600,000 max viewers per game. Media rights will plummet. So will recruiting.
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Yes.

Here is the Big 12 future for Miami. Winning a conference that doesn't guarantee us a playoff spot. Getting all the best Tuesday/Wednesday timeslots. Continually begging our donors for more NIL money (you think there's a "suck tax" NOW?!?!). Having the best Big 12 recruiting class every year (#24 in the country). Half-empty Hard Rock.

And that's BEST CASE SCENARIO.
 
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