MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[Angry Ibis]

All the confidence on the other boards is based on very little.

Agreed. And tend to agree with you and @Rickd, but several post as if the B1G move is based on knowledge and fact vs hope, rationalization and a combination of no way we’ll be left out and no way we’d be dumb enough to try to stay…

Which is fine, because it’s a message board, which is why it is also fine to compare our versions of Genetics with the Genetics dude those guys hate

 

[JD08]

Agreed. And tend to agree with you and @Rickd, but several post as if the B1G move is based on knowledge and fact vs hope, rationalization and a combination of no way we’ll be left out and no way we’d be dumb enough to try to stay…

Which is fine, because it’s a message board, which is why it is also fine to compare our versions of Genetics with the Genetics dude those guys hate

Overconfidence is something that happens to people who haven't been beaten down enough. It's probably safe to say Miami fans know things can always go pear-shaped.

 

[Rickd]

Agreed. And tend to agree with you and @Rickd, but several post as if the B1G move is based on knowledge and fact vs hope, rationalization and a combination of no way we’ll be left out and no way we’d be dumb enough to try to stay…

Which is fine, because it’s a message board, which is why it is also fine to compare our versions of Genetics with the Genetics dude those guys hate

It is all speculation ... but you try and read anything out there that might provide SOME degree of background and insight into the CURRENT direction that the "wind is blowing" on the situation. Frankly, right now, it could simply end up with two programs being added to the B10 ... FSU and Clemson ... (with no action by the SEC) and the possibility that ESPN might enact the composition clause (if the two announce before the end of June) ... and the ACC ends up getting a revised (ie, lower) media offer from ESPN. THEN the scenario that some (Squid) put forth of Miami possibly considering a bid from the B12 "for a while", until a slot opens in the B10, might be $$$ under consideration.

Really too bad Mario blew it with his staff hires in 2022 ... an 8 win season then followed by 9-10 last year would have helped change the narrative. To have an opportunity to get back in the discussion Mario needs 10-11 regular season wins this year and an ACC championship. PLUS it would be advantageous if Clemson delayed their decision until they are scheduled to enter arbitration in late October.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Agreed. And tend to agree with you and @Rickd, but several post as if the B1G move is based on knowledge and fact vs hope, rationalization and a combination of no way we’ll be left out and no way we’d be dumb enough to try to stay…

Which is fine, because it’s a message board, which is why it is also fine to compare our versions of Genetics with the Genetics dude those guys hate

 

[Yoyo82]

Big Ten IMO. With FSU, Clemson and UNC likely leaving it ends up being a game of musical chairs for us. We don’t get that seat, we end up the first loser. That’s a tough pill to swallow.

It won't happen.

I'll say it again.

There's ZERO chance you have a bunch of network executives and conference administrators standing around seeing a brand like the U with it's history and rivalries sitting there available while brands like Illinois, Indiana, etc siphon funds away without adding any value.

These conferences (SEC and B1G) are in an arms race whether they want to admit it out loud or not. SEC got Texas/OU. B1G responded by getting USC/UCLA/Oregon/Wash.

There are very few value adding assets left and both conferences are not going to stand by idly while the other conference just collects value adding assets for FREE.

Miami is a brand that adds value. B1G wants Miami. Especially WITH FSU. I would think the SEC would take Miami with FSU JUST to keep the B1G out of Florida but I'm not sure they're there yet.

Once there's a viable path to leave the ACC, I expect a deal to be struck between Miami and the B1G very soon after that.

These conferences have a limited ceiling..they can't just create assets out of thin air like building a new building or something..once the assets are gone they can't get any bigger by adding assets.

 

[Ispyin]

Hmmmm

But then all the confidence here would be based on very little....

Once in A while you can just put your self on mute. It’s ok. Put your mope in the refrigerator and cool off. It’s tired.

No one is asking you to be drinking all the kool aid. There are reasons not to be but try not to play just one note all the time. Just not predictable af. Making me wonder if you’re the best worst poster here now or worst best poster.

 

[rascon]

It won't happen.

I'll say it again.

There's ZERO chance you have a bunch of network executives and conference administrators standing around seeing a brand like the U with it's history and rivalries sitting there available while brands like Illinois, Indiana, etc siphon funds away without adding any value.

These conferences (SEC and B1G) are in an arms race whether they want to admit it out loud or not. SEC got Texas/OU. B1G responded by getting USC/UCLA/Oregon/Wash.

There are very few value adding assets left and both conferences are not going to stand by idly while the other conference just collects value adding assets for FREE.

Miami is a brand that adds value. B1G wants Miami. Especially WITH FSU. I would think the SEC would take Miami with FSU JUST to keep the B1G out of Florida but I'm not sure they're there yet.

Once there's a viable path to leave the ACC, I expect a deal to be struck between Miami and the B1G very soon after that.

These conferences have a limited ceiling..they can't just create assets out of thin air like building a new building or something..once the assets are gone they can't get any bigger by adding assets.

Pretty much agree with this, except that I’m not sure there’s going to be urgency in doing it now or in a few years (I think I hear 2030-2032ish?).
I feel pretty confident Miami will be in P2, just not sure when. While the talks might be ongoing between networks, I have a feeling the networks will eventually settle on who is going where, but agree not to add for a hot minute. it might get quiet for a little bit, even if/when FSU.Clemson exit.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Once in A while you can just put your self on mute. It’s ok. Put your mope in the refrigerator and cool off. It’s fired.

No one is asking you to be drinking all the kool aid. There are reasons not to be but try not to play just one note all the time. Just not predictable af. Making me wonder if you’re the best worst poster here now or worst best poster.

 

[Hold My Beer]

Ah, nothing in the post you quoted was parroted from anywhere. Just a simply view of the current realignment status. So far Radakovich has stated that the ACC is wonderful, while 3 other schools have openly voiced displeasure, with two filing suit to get out.

U-Dub and Oregon were loyal to the Pac-1210 and ready to sign the new media deal ... until "suddenly" they weren't.

What do you think Miami and the rest of Brett McMurphy's "Magnificent Seven" were doing in their clandestine meetings last year?

FSU and Clemson AD's: "We're looking to take the first train smoking right on out of the ACC."

DanRad: "Go ahead then. Miami is proud of members of the ACC. There's no reason for us to leave."

No school with any kind of real shot at moving up to the SEC or B1G is content with staying in place — no matter how quiet on the matter.

 

[JD08]

It's kind of noticeable how the ACC and ESPN aren't looking at this from the standpoint that they should be serving their member institutions.

That speaks volumes about where this is headed.

 

[Gables Cane]

It won't happen.

I'll say it again.

There's ZERO chance you have a bunch of network executives and conference administrators standing around seeing a brand like the U with it's history and rivalries sitting there available while brands like Illinois, Indiana, etc siphon funds away without adding any value.

These conferences (SEC and B1G) are in an arms race whether they want to admit it out loud or not. SEC got Texas/OU. B1G responded by getting USC/UCLA/Oregon/Wash.

There are very few value adding assets left and both conferences are not going to stand by idly while the other conference just collects value adding assets for FREE.

Miami is a brand that adds value. B1G wants Miami. Especially WITH FSU. I would think the SEC would take Miami with FSU JUST to keep the B1G out of Florida but I'm not sure they're there yet.

Once there's a viable path to leave the ACC, I expect a deal to be struck between Miami and the B1G very soon after that.

These conferences have a limited ceiling..they can't just create assets out of thin air like building a new building or something..once the assets are gone they can't get any bigger by adding assets.

I agree with the sentiment and rationale; however, I have heard absolutely nothing from UM officials or credible media reporters suggesting that Miami will likely join either the B1G or the SEC. In fact, our very own Athletic Director has reaffirmed Miami’s intentions to remain with the sinking ship. As a result, many of us have lingering doubts on whether a move to either conference will happen.

We want to believe that we have a handshake deal with the B1G, but the passage of time and the unexpected inclusion of Oregon and Washington have shaken our belief. Having well respected posters say it “should” happen based on our own biases and beliefs, and hearing that it is “likely” to happen from say Bruce Feldman carry different weight.

The risk of being left out is real until the evidence suggests otherwise.

 

[CreativeCane]

It's kind of noticeable how the ACC and ESPN aren't looking at this from the standpoint that they should be serving their member institutions.

That speaks volumes about where this is headed.

But not a surprise. ACC holding on for dear life and ESPN trying to squeeze out pennies. But in all seriousness, if the ACC lost FSU and Clemson, would ESPN really want to renegotiate a new ACC deal? Even at a lesser payout, is there enough of a football draw to justify the expenses of the ACC network and all the payouts? I feel they'd just kill the deal.

 

[Hold My Beer]

In a situation were 4 ACC programs were going to be added to the B10, and most likely 2 to the SEC, there were "homes" theoretically for the top 6 most desirable ACC programs. "Desirable" doesn't necessarily mean "best football", as the SEC apparently wants UNC / UVA for geographic consolidation reasons. In that scenario it was generally perceived that FSU, Clemson, Miami, and one other, in that order, were desired by the B10

FSU and Clemson aren't going anywhere but the SEC.

Period. End of story.

The$e are decision$ in 2024 made solely in the be$t of intere$t of the Athletic Program$ — and not by an egghead president with his own personal preference or message board monkeys eager to throw ***** at ESPN

 

[Hold My Beer]

It's kind of noticeable how the ACC and ESPN aren't looking at this from the standpoint that they should be serving their member institutions.

That speaks volumes about where this is headed.

But not a surprise. ACC holding on for dear life and ESPN trying to squeeze out pennies. But in all seriousness, if the ACC lost FSU and Clemson, would ESPN really want to renegotiate a new ACC deal? Even at a lesser payout, is there enough of a football draw to justify the expenses of the ACC network and all the payouts? I feel they'd just kill the deal.

We don't know yet if ESPN covertly supports FSU's and Clemson's efforts to leave the ACC.

We do know, however, that the suits in Bristol aren't throwing their considerable weight behind Jim Phillips and the ACC.

ESPN not activating the 2027-36 media right extension (7-plus months to the deadline and the clock is ticking) makes the ACC's path forward more difficult and adds credibility+fuel to the arguments and motivation of those schools trying to leave

 

[Rickd]

FSU and Clemson aren't going anywhere but the SEC.

Period. End of story.

The$e are decision$ in 2024 made solely in the be$t of intere$t of the Athletic Program$ — and not by an egghead president with his own personal preference or message board monkeys eager to throw ***** at ESPN

Are you saying that FSU / Clemson don't bring $$$ value to the Big 10? Has nothing to do with "egghead presidents" and everything to do with FOX sports and THEIR evaluation of economic impact / value and willingness to pay full B10 share to FSU / Clemson.

 

[Gables Cane]

It is all speculation ... but you try and read anything out there that might provide SOME degree of background and insight into the CURRENT direction that the "wind is blowing" on the situation. Frankly, right now, it could simply end up with two programs being added to the B10 ... FSU and Clemson ... (with no action by the SEC) and the possibility that ESPN might enact the composition clause (if the two announce before the end of June) ... and the ACC ends up getting a revised (ie, lower) media offer from ESPN. THEN the scenario that some (Squid) put forth of Miami possibly considering a bid from the B12 "for a while", until a slot opens in the B10, might be $$$ under consideration.

Really too bad Mario blew it with his staff hires in 2022 ... an 8 win season then followed by 9-10 last year would have helped change the narrative. To have an opportunity to get back in the discussion Mario needs 10-11 regular season wins this year and an ACC championship. PLUS it would be advantageous if Clemson delayed their decision until they are scheduled to enter arbitration in late October.

Rickd - Can you walk us thru what happens if ESPN invokes the Composition Clause? For example, does this mean ESPN will then renegotiate the payout with remaining ACC member institutions? Must the remaining members accept the modified offer? Does it trigger termination rights for either party?

 

[Rickd]

Rickd - Can you walk us thru what happens if ESPN invokes the Composition Clause? For example, does this mean ESPN will then renegotiate the payout with remaining ACC member institutions? Must the remaining members accept the modified offer? Does it trigger termination rights for either party?

I believe it takes the media agreement back to square one. ESPN might decide that the conference, without FSU / Clemson (who represented at least 30% of ACC viewership numbers) is no longer of interest OR they offer a much lower media $$ deal that members then need to approve. Approval requires 2/3 rds vote. So if we are offered $30M per year - $10M than the current level and the lower tier + Cal/Stan/SMU vote yes - we are in a situation where WE might need to file suit to leave demanding a lower exit fee as the ACC is worse than $ current levels.

 

[3FW]

It won't happen.

I'll say it again.

There's ZERO chance you have a bunch of network executives and conference administrators standing around seeing a brand like the U with it's history and rivalries sitting there available while brands like Illinois, Indiana, etc siphon funds away without adding any value.

These conferences (SEC and B1G) are in an arms race whether they want to admit it out loud or not. SEC got Texas/OU. B1G responded by getting USC/UCLA/Oregon/Wash.

There are very few value adding assets left and both conferences are not going to stand by idly while the other conference just collects value adding assets for FREE.

Miami is a brand that adds value. B1G wants Miami. Especially WITH FSU. I would think the SEC would take Miami with FSU JUST to keep the B1G out of Florida but I'm not sure they're there yet.

Once there's a viable path to leave the ACC, I expect a deal to be struck between Miami and the B1G very soon after that.

These conferences have a limited ceiling..they can't just create assets out of thin air like building a new building or something..once the assets are gone they can't get any bigger by adding assets.

Nobody is getting kicked out of the Big 10 or SEC in the near future. I think the question is only who the Big 10 and SEC add in the next window and who is left waiting and hoping.

 

[Hold My Beer]

Are you saying that FSU / Clemson don't bring $$$ value to the Big 10? Has nothing to do with "egghead presidents" and everything to do with FOX sports and THEIR evaluation of economic impact / value and willingness to pay full B10 share to FSU / Clemson.

No. I just think the "FSU+Clemson to the B1G" talk is posturing to help move along the process.

When Gregg Sankey says this:

“We’re attentive, we’re engaged in conversation. The great news for the Southeastern Conference is people call and say, 'Hey you’re doing something special.' They kind of hint around the edges. We’ll watch what happens around us. And be thoughtful, but be nimble.”

and this:

"We respect that there are agreements and situations that prevent a lot of movement, so our focus has been on our 16. But, I pay attention."

and Pete Thamel from ESPN says this:

"I would think the SEC would be happy to sit at 16 for a while because they really like their footprint. There's enough intimacy. They have a region right now. The only thing that disrupts that is if they have to play defense because they don't want the Big Ten to come into their region.

"Is that Florida State? Is that North Carolina, which is coveted. Virginia, which is coveted. I think the ranking — and people at Florida State and Clemson don't like to hear this — but it's North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson and Florida State. Or maybe Florida State (No. 3) instead of Clemson because they bring more eyeballs and TV sets. Those schools are in the crosshairs."

Personally, I think we should believe them.

You mention FOX and the full media rights share, but please explain how that will surpass or even come close to equaling an SEC with Sankey's pro rata agreement with ESPN, season-ticket and luxury box sales, financial impact on Trailerhassee and FSU, both the ease and expense of travel (Tally is a major PITA location for anyone outside the South), the effect on top second-tier sports like baseball and softball where the B1G sucks and so on.

Keep hearing this talk about the BIG with its incomparable academic clout, but you don't think an SEC with UNC+UVA (which Sankey most definitely plans to do), Vandy, Texas and possibly Duke and Georgia Tech won't have clout (as much as sports conferences even carry weight in those matters)?

Just my 2 cents. Not trying to change your mind even if I could.

I just think the whole scheme right now is for FSU and Clemson to break down the ACC door to leave as quickly and cheaply as possible.

Sankey and ESPN are on board, too. They just want to keep their hands clean

 

[Hold My Beer]

Nobody is getting kicked out of the Big 10 or SEC in the near future. I think the question is only who the Big 10 and SEC add in the next window and who is left waiting and hoping.

Exactly.

Get back to me when the Jags get kicked out of the NFL

W's and L's are a zero-sum game.

Not every school is going to be a contender (or ex-contender) in both revenue sports