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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

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wichitacane said:
Why would we agree to an extension for less revenue?
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They wouldn’t, and if ESPN played hardball the remaining schools would then be able to shop the tv deal to another provider. The Big12, and their “second tier” group of schools already are getting paid more money than the ACC because they have a real conference president that works for member schools and isn’t in bed with espn
 
Ispyin said:
The lack of knowledge and plainly available information is pretty mind-boggling. Even at seven and five Miami and thus getting less good networks and timeslots was still a top 25 to top 30 draw. For those who can’t do math, the entire Big Ten and SEC are 34 teams (for now). Obviously there are teams in the top 25 that are not in those conferences but you get the general extraction point

Markets matter, but it’s more about national overall audience, especially for somebody like fox that sells more of their inventory that way. It’s also about what matchups would result in what rivalries are continued, reestablished, or possibly initiated.

A 24/7 poll of 1600 recruits in 2023 - meaning players that weren’t even born the last time. Miami was pretty much relevant- still had Miami ranked as a top 10 brand.

The thing, some people worry about in this entire conversation are pretty pointless. Miami brown value is so strong that even after 20 years of sucking, and having a basically 500 record, the school still draws, besides being among the smallest alumni and student Bases in CFB div 1. don’t let empty seats because of mediocrity and ****** schedules. Confused, national brand appeal and TV ratings upside.

All the networks know what happens to ratings when Miami is good or plays a name brand and they know the floor is still better than 80% of college football with Miami sucks.

That’s not being a homer that’s just ******* facts.

My fear is not based on any of that kind of crap is that I am not a big believer in Miami’s ability to get out of their own way at times until proven differently or unforeseen wildcard even though my strong view still remains that we will be playing USC sometime in the not too distant future and it won’t be an out of conference game.
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Again, I hope you're right and ALL of these supposed "insiders" are wrong. They all have the Canes 4th or 5th best option at the highest.
 
wichitacane said:
Why would we agree to an extension for less revenue?
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WE don't have to agree ... but "media agreements" require a 2/3rds vote of members.
Clemson and FSU would not be voting as they would not BE ACC conference members. Timing is everything.
After July 1, 2024 Cal, Stanford, SMU come on board and the conference would have 15 voting members on football media agreements, not including FSU, Clemson, or ND (who is not a football member and therefore shouldn't be voting on a football media contract).

All it takes is 10 of the 15 conference members voting FOR the new deal.

I see these teams voting FOR
BC
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Stanford
Cal
SMU
Pitt
UVA
Duke
Ga Tech

Against
Miami
UNC
Va Tech
NC State
Louisville

If the vote is BEFORE July 1 we have a better chance. After ... good luck. Still hoping for a miracle and 8 teams vote to dissolve prior to June.
 
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wichitacane said:
Why would we agree to an extension for less revenue?
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Because it's better than the alternative. And I stand by my belief that Rads top preference is staying in the ACC. I expect the acc and espn will come up with some additional performance based incentives and then publish some funny math to show how the top 3 acc teams will make "comparable" amounts of money as the P2 schools, especially when you factor in things like travel distance and not needing to add additional non revenue sports.
 
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Rickd said:
No way Miami should be signing off on the "negotiated deal" with a reduced ACC media payout and equal distribution. That is a new GOR ... we don't sign ... we leave. Has Donna greased the skids to the B10?
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Are you sure Miami would be required to sign off? The GOR is already signed, that required unanimous signoff but they already have that through the term. I'm not sure if signing a revised media agreement with ESPN would require unanimous consent or just a 3/4 majority, or half.... I'm not familiar enough with the ACC bylaws to know that for sure.

But who's to say if every ACC member except UNC and Miami vote to approve the deal, that it wouldn't go in to effect anyway?

Miami needs to tread carefully.
 
Cane6 said:
Taking it a step further to connect the dots for the stupid people

1. We know 7-8 ACC schools met in the past 18 months to strategize as to how to get out of the GoR deal, FSU Clemson and Miami had been meeting together and snooping around ACC office long before that

2. You are all idiots if you think FSU and Clemson are operating independently in their lawsuits without alignment from the other Group of 7 schools

3. FSU resides in the most advantageous state from a lawsuit standpoint, while also being at the state capital, which holds political weight, and is a public university. For those reasons FSU was ALWAYS going to be the lead in filing suit compared to Miami. The FSU attorney portraying the state tax payers covering the hypothetical fsu exit fees was 100% the right play, which Miami as a private university couldn’t pitch. I would be shocked if Miami wasn’t subsidizing FSU’s legal expenses, informally, and both schools were aligned with the plan.

4. The ACC started with the 4 North Carolina a schools, none of them were ever going to be the first school to sue the conference. What is telling, is that UNC has been way more vocal in their displeasure with the conference and tv money

5. Miami and Notre Dame getting AAU status in 2023 wasn’t by accident. FSU is pushing to get it asap and likely will get it in June

6. The ACC totally screwed fsu last year for the playoffs, and Miami has their best shot in years, and therefore isn’t publicly ****ing off Jim Phillips going into the 2024 season

7. TV viewership and broadcast fees trump everything else. Miami is the fastest growing metropolitan area in the whole country. Miami’s average attendance at Hard Rock is irrelevant in the value formula that FOX and the BigTen look at

A lot of you guys really need to think bigger picture.
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#7....c'mon now...SoFL is nowhere close to Top 10, I don't even think Top 30...

Now, concentration of wealthy zip codes...ok...different story...

I see your point for the others though...
 
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Felonious Monk said:
Read my link.

16. Clemson
19. FSU
22. UNC
25. Miami
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And that matches up with what the "insiders" say in general. How many teams are going to the P2? No one knows.

And per your lists, you can add Stanford at 17 and Okla St tied with Miami as those who could potentially go ahead.

Let's hope the powers that be get it done.
 
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SCarolina Ibis said:
"Over the last year I have been fortunate to learn from Florida State fans about Miami's stadium issues, attendance problems, and the challenges they face from an attendance and stadium perspective."

"I have been lucky to learn ..." from fans talking **** about their rivals on twitter? Can you imagine him saying he's lucky to learn about Ohio State from Michigan fans? Or about Alabama from Auburn fans??

If this guy had any credibility before, its gone now.
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Right. F$U fans will probably tell him that our math department is in the middle of the 'Pork n Beans' projects. So if he's listening to them dumbfuccs to tell him ANYTHING about Miami, then he's a cuck.
 
Cane6 said:
Taking it a step further to connect the dots for the stupid people

1. We know 7-8 ACC schools met in the past 18 months to strategize as to how to get out of the GoR deal, FSU Clemson and Miami had been meeting together and snooping around ACC office long before that

2. You are all idiots if you think FSU and Clemson are operating independently in their lawsuits without alignment from the other Group of 7 schools

3. FSU resides in the most advantageous state from a lawsuit standpoint, while also being at the state capital, which holds political weight, and is a public university. For those reasons FSU was ALWAYS going to be the lead in filing suit compared to Miami. The FSU attorney portraying the state tax payers covering the hypothetical fsu exit fees was 100% the right play, which Miami as a private university couldn’t pitch. I would be shocked if Miami wasn’t subsidizing FSU’s legal expenses, informally, and both schools were aligned with the plan.

4. The ACC started with the 4 North Carolina a schools, none of them were ever going to be the first school to sue the conference. What is telling, is that UNC has been way more vocal in their displeasure with the conference and tv money

5. Miami and Notre Dame getting AAU status in 2023 wasn’t by accident. FSU is pushing to get it asap and likely will get it in June

6. The ACC totally screwed fsu last year for the playoffs, and Miami has their best shot in years, and therefore isn’t publicly ****ing off Jim Phillips going into the 2024 season

7. TV viewership and broadcast fees trump everything else. Miami is the fastest growing metropolitan area in the whole country. Miami’s average attendance at Hard Rock is irrelevant in the value formula that FOX and the BigTen look at

A lot of you guys really need to think bigger picture.
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You need revamp your opinion regarding #7. Latest census figures have Dallas, Houston and Atlanta as the three fastest growing large metros. Miami's TV market only includes Dade County. Broward and Palm Beach are in their own separate TV markets based on Nielsen. Plus half Dade County doesn't speak English and even less care about college football. The other 6 items I more or less agree. And I do believe that Fox understands Miami's brand potential and national TV draw when we are winning.
 
Hear there is some smoke from the B12 about offering a “select echelon” of teams sprinkled throughout the country a “100+” percentage of their TV revenue. Essentially the opposite of what SMU, Oregon, and others have done. If we can get into that select group, Miami may be able to salvage its future after the ACC collapses.

Sometimes a reverse mortgage is just plain smart.
 
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IndayArtHauz said:
Hear there is some smoke from the B12 about offering a “select echelon” of teams sprinkled throughout the country a “100+” percentage of their TV revenue. Essentially the opposite of what SMU, Oregon, and others have done. If we can get into that select group, Miami may be able to salvage its future after the ACC collapses.

Sometimes a reverse mortgage is just plain smart.
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Having sold reverse mortgages (the most soul sucking, depressing job of my life) , I can tell you - no, it almost always is not.

But as for the Big 12, I think that's where we eventually end up after sitting on our thumbs for too long and the P2 deciding that they don't need to further dilute shares (at least for a few years) . It's not great and means we clearly got out maneuvered by FSU - even the most irrational UM sunshine pumpers will have to admit FSU won the long game- but at least we'll recruit better in Texas (probably)
 
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RightSaidFred said:
Are you sure Miami would be required to sign off? The GOR is already signed, that required unanimous signoff but they already have that through the term. I'm not sure if signing a revised media agreement with ESPN would require unanimous consent or just a 3/4 majority, or half.... I'm not familiar enough with the ACC bylaws to know that for sure.

But who's to say if every ACC member except UNC and Miami vote to approve the deal, that it wouldn't go in to effect anyway?

Miami needs to tread carefully.
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Read my post above (#17,129). That it the risk ... it takes a 2/3rds vote to accept or modify a media agreement according to ACC Bylaws. Once the 3 new teams are on board, July 1, 2024, it would take SIX VOTES against to defeat any proposed changes. Not sure if there are 6 votes there, as Clemson and FSU would not be voting.
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
Having sold reverse mortgages (the most soul sucking, depressing job of my life) , I can tell you - no, it almost always is not.

But as for the Big 12, I think that's where we eventually end up after sitting on our thumbs for too long and the P2 deciding that they don't need to further dilute shares (at least for a few years) . It's not great and means we clearly got out maneuvered by FSU - even the most irrational UM sunshine pumpers will have to admit FSU won the long game- but at least we'll recruit better in Texas (probably)
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We ONLY end up there if a). The ACC is dissolved and b). B10 won't take us even on a partial share for several years.

HUGE RISK is that with the 3 new dilutive programs joining, FSU and Clemson leaving, it only takes 2/3rds vote of members to approve a NEW GOR. So ESPN offers $25M per team per year, down from the current $40+, and the weak sisters all vote YEAH as they have no other home. We would need SIX to vote no. And FSU and Clemson aren't voting.
 
Rickd said:
Read my post above (#17,129). That it the risk ... it takes a 2/3rds vote to accept or modify a media agreement according to ACC Bylaws. Once the 3 new teams are on board, July 1, 2024, it would take SIX VOTES against to defeat any proposed changes. Not sure if there are 6 votes there, as Clemson and FSU would not be voting.
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July 1 is two and a half months away. There's no chance a settlement is going to happen that quickly.
 
Rickd said:
We ONLY end up there if a). The ACC is dissolved and b). B10 won't take us even on a partial share for several years.

HUGE RISK is that with the 3 new dilutive programs joining, FSU and Clemson leaving, it only takes 2/3rds vote of members to approve a NEW GOR. So ESPN offers $25M per team per year, down from the current $40+, and the weak sisters all vote YEAH as they have no other home. We would need SIX to vote no. And FSU and Clemson aren't voting.
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If they offered $25M per team, six would vote "no" because the Big 12 would be more lucrative. In fact I think the Big 12 is paying more than the ACC is currently, so any reduction at all would be met with resistence.

I think the scenario laid out is pie in the sky from ESPN. Not only do I doubt that the ACC will agree to it, I doubt that even Clemson or FSU would. Why would they agree to take partial shares in the SEC, splitting revenue with the ACC, if the alternative is not extending the TV deal and blowing up the ACC? If they did that, Clemson and FSU would escape for free.

The proposed negotiation would benefit ESPN, but I don't think it benefits the other parties enough to where it will be accepted IMO
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
Because it's better than the alternative. And I stand by my belief that Rads top preference is staying in the ACC. I expect the acc and espn will come up with some additional performance based incentives and then publish some funny math to show how the top 3 acc teams will make "comparable" amounts of money as the P2 schools, especially when you factor in things like travel distance and not needing to add additional non revenue sports.
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This is probably option 1 or 1a for our Miami Hurricanes.

Does it happen? 🤷‍♂️

Again, if ESPN puts FSU + Clemson into SEC, Fox + BIG10 almost have to go after Miami + UNC + UCF (yes, I said it).

Then....conferences implode anyways in 2030s and new super conference emerges for the 20-30-ish pay-to-play big boys.

Maryland and Minnesota and Indiana and Northwestern aren't it.
 
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