MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[BostonCanes47]

Yeah, this dopey "caneinbroward" guy just doesn't get it.

F$U is just...F$U...they are relatively steady in their annual enrollment/graduation numbers. Thus, whatever number of F$U alums you have in the state of Florida will remain relatively constant. F$U alums will die, and more recent F$U alums will replace them. No big deal.

But on the other side...there is MASSIVE movement into the state of Florida from the upper midwest. Thus, whatever the numbers for Michigan alums and Michigan ex-pats "used to be", they are growing. Quickly. While the number of F$U alums is NOT growing. Unless someone is trying to argue that there are ton of F$U alums MOVING INTO Florida.

But that would just be silly.

I was in Tampa in October for a week and everyone I met was from the Midwest…all big 10 fans. Didn’t see a UF or FSU fan until the third bar I was at. Only saw two other UM fans all day that day.

 

[Cajuncane]

I cannot overstate the joy this would bring me.

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

I am concerned we are going to be left out of the P2 for the next round of expansion based on some of the rumors. That would really stink and be a huge disadvantage.

I thought so too until I ran the numbers. Look at my previous two posts. If the teams exiting the acc pay 350 million to buy back the media rights (negotiated down from 575 million), then under the ACCs new "winners take more model", the top acc teams would make nearly as much (and possibly more) as the top P2 teams through 2027. The conference quality will be terrible, but given the expanded playoffs, that doesn't hurt as much, plus we might actually win the acc for once. That said, UM football is dead is we don't get out in 2027.

As I have said numerous times, my personal belief is that Dan Rad wants to try to save the acc and make it the premier academic conference. Look at the schools who opposed letting in Stanford, Cal, and SMU because it would make it exponentially harder to dissolve the acc.

Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and North Carolina State

Shocker- 3 of the 4 are the ones rumored to have guaranteed spots in the P2 (and NC St is dreaming it can piggy back into the P2 because of UNC). Rad was a key proponent of the current GOR that got us into this mess, and I just don't think he's going to do a 180 and now say that the deal he helped broker was complete and utter garbage. I'd be delighted if this is one of the rare times that I turn out to be wrong. A few people are telling themselves that Rad is playing the game on a different level and working out a secret deal that puts UM sports on top of the world. It's kinda sobering to realize that with Rad at the helm, we are currently in what may be the worst stretch ever for UM sports.

It's not much comfort - staying in the ACC through 2027 is not ideal and we are far better off leaving the conference, but I don't think it's the end of UM football just yet. If we are still in the acc in 2028, then we are definitely screwed.

 

[ICANEDOIT]

We are going to be stuck in this **** conference for a while. Terrible. Worst conference ever.

 

[ssvir]

Yeah, this dopey "caneinbroward" guy just doesn't get it.

F$U is just...F$U...they are relatively steady in their annual enrollment/graduation numbers. Thus, whatever number of F$U alums you have in the state of Florida will remain relatively constant. F$U alums will die, and more recent F$U alums will replace them. No big deal.

But on the other side...there is MASSIVE movement into the state of Florida from the upper midwest. Thus, whatever the numbers for Michigan alums and Michigan ex-pats "used to be", they are growing. Quickly. While the number of F$U alums is NOT growing. Unless someone is trying to argue that there are ton of F$U alums MOVING INTO Florida.

But that would just be silly.

This again?

 

[cway313]

 

[rascon]

View attachment 283079
I have a hard time thinking Miami will ultimately be left out of the P2 but if we have to wait until 2030 while FSU/ND and then others to the SEC get out sooner, we’ll be at a major disadvantage in terms of resources and perception but the time we actually make it

Initially, I could understand not being first, knowing that ND was going to take their sweet time to go to B1G. But if ND joins sooner than expected, I think the B1G closes the door behind them as FSU would satsify their Florida footprint initiative.

If this plays out, I could see SEC adding a couple schools and then they close the door and take minimum 5 years to see how they like the new 14 or 16 team playoff and see if they good or not.

I think there’s a possibility they will be good and not rush to a P2 model.

 

[5NC4]

Initially, I could understand not being first, knowing that ND was going to take their sweet time to go to B1G. But if ND joins sooner than expected, I think the B1G closes the door behind them as FSU would satsify their Florida footprint initiative.

If this plays out, I could see SEC adding a couple schools and then they close the door and take minimum 5 years to see how they like the new 14 or 16 team playoff and see if they good or not.

I think there’s a possibility they will be good and not rush to a P2 model.

Agreed and that is a scenario that really sucks for our athletic programs. Gonna be a harder sell to recruits for Mario and crew if we are stuck in the nobody conference with a bunch of leftovers.

 

[D_G87]

Julio Frenk doesn’t even know what a football is. If we are left out, I wouldn’t be surprised. This stuff seems to be all over the place. Who even knows what actually is going to happen.

 

[scane]

So if I’m following Genetics on Notre Dame: last summer they were “closer to joining the Big Ten than anyone knows,” then they were staying independent but somehow splitting a 7 game package between Fox and NBC (still think this was hysterically implausible), then, when they resigned with just NBC, they were going to do a scheduling agreement with the Big Ten, and now they’re joining the Big Ten and he’s credible because he’s the last person that would ever tell you that (even though he spent months last summer hinting at it).

 

[Rickd]

I thought so too until I ran the numbers. Look at my previous two posts. If the teams exiting the acc pay 350 million to buy back the media rights (negotiated down from 575 million), then under the ACCs new "winners take more model", the top acc teams would make nearly as much (and possibly more) as the top P2 teams through 2027. The conference quality will be terrible, but given the expanded playoffs, that doesn't hurt as much, plus we might actually win the acc for once. That said, UM football is dead is we don't get out in 2027.

As I have said numerous times, my personal belief is that Dan Rad wants to try to save the acc and make it the premier academic conference. Look at the schools who opposed letting in Stanford, Cal, and SMU because it would make it exponentially harder to dissolve the acc.

Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and North Carolina State

Shocker- 3 of the 4 are the ones rumored to have guaranteed spots in the P2 (and NC St is dreaming it can piggy back into the P2 because of UNC). Rad was a key proponent of the current GOR that got us into this mess, and I just don't think he's going to do a 180 and now say that the deal he helped broker was complete and utter garbage. I'd be delighted if this is one of the rare times that I turn out to be wrong. A few people are telling themselves that Rad is playing the game on a different level and working out a secret deal that puts UM sports on top of the world. It's kinda sobering to realize that with Rad at the helm, we are currently in what may be the worst stretch ever for UM sports.

It's not much comfort - staying in the ACC through 2027 is not ideal and we are far better off leaving the conference, but I don't think it's the end of UM football just yet. If we are still in the acc in 2028, then we are definitely screwed.

The attorneys who have evaluated the GOR and all of the FSU and ACC filings - whose commentaries I have read in detail - are all in agreement that a). The ACC exit fee is paid by the exiting school to the ACC and that is distributed to members b). The GOR - media rights buyback is 100% negotiated with ESPN and the school wanting its rights back (even the AD of NC stated “the ACC sold our rights to ESPN and if we want them back we have to buy them from ESPN”. That money does not go to the schools. Plus the GOR was established at the request of ESPN to protect THEIR contract. If they don’t exercise the option to extend - the GOR is only valid until their contract expires in June 2027.

 

[Ispyin]

Look, I have no idea really when it comes to Notre Dame but I think it’s also very possible that people are misread the situation with them. It doesn’t really benefit them as much as people are saying because they think people are a freak out that they can’t get a bye.

In order for them to get a buy, they would have to play an extra game in a conference championship. They would then have to win it. If they lose the game, they probably still make the playoffs but they have now played an extra game that they wouldn’t have to play as a pure at large team.

And even in a scenario where they are still independent, and been ranked number one through four, they still get the benefit of not having played that extra game at a neutral field, and instead most likely hosting and making the money from a home game as the 5-eight seed in the current format or something similar if it goes to 14 or 16 which might only involve a couple of buys available anyway

They are really not out as much as people are thinking, and potentially have to play one less game than many others who would go to a conference title game, lose and then be playing again anyway

And in comparison to being in the conference championship game as their 13th- they are likely playing a future top 5-8 seed vs hosting a home game against 9-12

Not sure for them that’s worth all that much vs their independence and instead moving to a scheduling agreement plus move their other sports over

 

[canes518]

Look, I have no idea really when it comes to Notre Dame but I think it’s also very possible that people are misread the situation with them. It doesn’t really benefit them as much as people are saying because they think people are a freak out that they can’t get a bye.

In order for them to get a buy, they would have to play an extra game in a conference championship. They would then have to win it. If they lose the game, they probably still make the playoffs but they have now played an extra game that they wouldn’t have to play as a pure at large team.

And even in a scenario where they are still independent, and been ranked number one through four, they still get the benefit of not having played that extra game at a neutral field, and instead most likely hosting and making the money from a home game as the 5-eight seed in the current format or something similar if it goes to 14 or 16 which might only involve a couple of buys available anyway

They are really not out as much as people are thinking, and potentially have to play one less game than many others who would go to a conference title game, lose and then be playing again anyway

And in comparison to being in the conference championship game as their 13th- they are likely playing a future top 5-8 seed vs hosting a home game against 9-12

Not sure for them that’s worth all that much vs their independence and instead moving to a scheduling agreement plus move their other sports over

Same source (Genetics) but there’s been talk of conference championship games going away as the playoff expands

 

[Ispyin]

Same source (Genetics) but there’s been talk of conference championship games going away as the playoff expands

Don’t see that happening- many conferences have no shot of making playoffs and the big guys don’t want to lose the revenue

 

[CreativeCane]

Same source (Genetics) but there’s been talk of conference championship games going away as the playoff expands

So how do they determine conference champs automatic bids? Or do they get rid of those? Even NFL has division winner automatic bids.

 

[canes518]

So how do they determine conference champs automatic bids? Or do they get rid of those? Even NFL has division winner automatic bids.

I don’t remember if he gave any details but speculating that either top X teams overall or if the leagues are divided into multiple subdivisions then the top team in each of those similar to NFL

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

I still don’t think there’s a world where Miami doesn’t get into the P2 at some point relatively soon but it would be pretty helpful if the athletic department could do good athletics at some point.

 

[Noliaboi]

View attachment 283134




I still don’t think there’s a world where Miami doesn’t get into the P2 at some point relatively soon but it would be pretty helpful if the athletic department could do good athletics at some point.

Seriously, is it to soon to be in chicken little mode or for us to assume the sky is falling? Never thought I’d see a day where it is assumed that UVA is more valued in CFB than us. Sheesh

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Seriously, is it to soon to be in chicken little mode or for us to assume the sky is falling? Never thought I’d see a day where it is assumed that UVA is more valued in CFB than us. Sheesh

Definitely not too soon to panic. Again, IMO Miami gets into the P2 at some point. But I wouldn’t bet one singular dollar on that happening very soon. Really none of the metrics these guys care about line up for us to get an invite, especially when you consider FSU is higher in the pecking order.

I don’t get into this thread too much anymore because it’s just such a slow moving process and things change and nobody really knows how all this shakes out in the end, but in all actuality, this should be the only thing any of us are discussing here. It’s the literal future of the program. If FSU and ND get into the B1G, they close shop, and the SEC does the same, this program is over. Hard to say that, but it’s true. Yeah, we’ll still play football. But in very short order, we’ll be completely blown past by everyone in the P2 while we play tummy sticks with the losers in the ACC or Big 12.

 

[rascon]

Seriously, is it to soon to be in chicken little mode or for us to assume the sky is falling? Never thought I’d see a day where it is assumed that UVA is more valued in CFB than us. Sheesh

Not too soon imho. If smoke about ND is true about moving to B1G sooner rather than later, that’s a gamechanger.

Wouldn’t surprise me if we thought we would eventually go in as ND partner.

B1G end game was always to get ND and P2 was the most logical way to get them there. But if they don’t have to go to that extent to force ND’s hand, than there is really no reason to expand just to expand. They will have everything they want and be able to max shares. Any new member after FSU and ND get in would not move the needle from a payoff perspective.