I haven’t been following this as closely as many of you. What’s happening next year to make this more likely than not?
1).Reality that a soon to be $50 million dollar a year media revenue gap isn't a sustainable situation for top programs that want to compete for a). Quality athletes and b). Have a shot at the playoffs and actually winning a championship.
2). Fact that over the past 18 months thousands of AD department and attorney hours have been invested by at least 7-8 programs in evaluating options to get OUT of the ACC.
3). Fact that the Big 10 AND it's media partners want VERY MUCH to establish what they call "the southern tier" of the B10 conference by adding whatever programs out of FSU / Clemson / Miami / Va Tech / UNC they are able to get.
4). Fact that the media partners have ALL initiated some sort of conversations ... horse trading ... regarding HOW this might be accomplished IF the ACC isn't dissolved ... shaping media rights ... sharing media rights ... outright purchase of media rights. Complicated math and it has take time to get to this stage.
5). Realization by many ACC members that aren't the TOP choice by either the B10 / SEC that the B12 has taken a leadership role, compared to the ACC, in becoming the #3 conference right after the emerging B2, and it will most likely be a better place to be for the next 25 years, than the ACC .. so programs that weren't considering leaving this time a year ago are now looking at possibly leaving for the B12 as being a more solid option than remaining.
6). All of the momentum that has been building by AD's, media partners (FOX / CBS / NBC / CBS / ESPN), and the members OF the ACC is going to continue building over the next 6-10 months until clearer options / costs are crystalized and decisions can be made. The lowest cost option for all involved is "the nuclear reboot" which is feasible if the 8-9 programs needed work together and pull the trigger.
There is a 700 page series of inputs on Canesinsight, Warchant has one thread at well over 1000 pages, and @Genetics56, the B10 realignment "guru" has a pretty insightful "B10 Realignment Community" thread on Twitter with background information.
This entire episode of events over the past 18 months is not simply "posturing" by some "twitter guy" or an individual internet journalist looking for "clicks". Every day the actions needed to make it happen are becoming more defined and there will be a point at which the only options to make it happen become decided on and the trigger is pulled. Everything points to that time being in the next 12 months ... for decisions and announcements ... actual "playing dates" in new conferences could be 25 or 26.