Everything you're saying has merit. What will be fascinating is how the Big 10 analyzes this choice.
On one side for the Big 10, we all know F$U is "close" to AAU membership, so if the Big 10 is able to appeal to F$U's "academic thirst", then you conceivably get the double-shot entry into Florida, plus a natural rivalry (UM-F$U). On the SEC side of the pitch, they can appeal to F$U's "competitive thirst" to play Florida annually, as well as the rest of the SEC teams, and so it will be fun to see which way F$U might lean.
On the other side for the Big 10, you have UVa that can help deliver another large state (Virginia) while potentially INCREASING the profile of Maryland, which has been lingering as one of the lesser Big 10 programs. Between UVa and UMD, you can lock up the DMV region, even while "losing" VaTech to the SEC. By no means is the DMV region as aggressively pro-football as the state of Florida is, but it's a big, wealthy, and politically powerful market that lies between Baltimore and Richmond/Charlottesville.
The Big 10 probably has to pick one of those two, but not both.
I think 3 destinations seem like the most logical - Notre Dame and Miami to the Big10, and UNC to the SEC. This isn't because of the value ranking, it's just what makes the most sense for those 3 parties and what the respective conference AND MEDIA partner desires. UNC Imo has far more value to the SEC than the Big10, who I believe would have them like 5th on their priority list. The SEC wishes to remain a regional conference. And North Carolina is the largest population market they aren't currently in. And obviously UNC has a great brand and is athletically great except for football which they are mostly just average at. But that is fine in the SEC where they are already so football dominant. The BIG10 needs more football dominant schools.
FSU and Clemson are the most difficult to predict because I think the SEC and BIG10 would both value them very highly so it wouldn't be such a clear cut they should/will do this. Like I feel like both going to the Big10 with Notre Dame and Us make a **** load of sense, but I also just can't see the SEC allowing the Big 10 to add all 4 of us. especially when FSU and Clemson are such good cultural fits with them and how they want to stay regional.
I wouldn't be surprised if the realignment by 2026 (so IN the new conferences for 2026 season) is:
Big 10: Notre Dame, Miami, FSU, and Clemson. .... Next up being Oregon, VTech, Washington, Stanford, GTech, Pitt, and Cal.
SEC: UNC and UVA. .... Next up being VTech, GTech, OKSt, NCSt, Louisville.
But I think the natural size for both conferences is like 20 for SEC and 24 for Big10.
But I'd be feel like it's also possible for it to end up being:
BIG10: Notre Dame and Miami. ... With VTech and Oregon joining a few years later, and Washington, and another maybe a few after that...
SEC: FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA ... with them not adding anyone else period.