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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

RVACane said:
Let me ask you this… If the SEC and ACC had a choice of taking only one ACC school and the choices are UM and UNC, who do you think they’re taking?
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I'm guessing you meant Big10, not ACC, that said I think the SEC would take UNC because we're not a fit in that conference, IMO, and they already have a Florida school. The Big10 takes Miami.
 
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RVACane said:
I agree that’s as of now. I think if our FB returns to prominence, we’ll pass UNC easily on that stuff. Academics is a different issue.

The question you pose is a good one because there are other premier state schools like UVA who have us beat academically but they’re not UNC in sports. I’ve lived half my life in the DMV and Virginia. Maryland covers the DC area. VT isn’t AAU and neither is FSU nor Clemson so I think those guys are eliminated and I think we beat UVA. @TheOriginalCane, is this how you see it too? After UNC, with the AAU we’re ahead of UVA overall?
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Yes, I think it's:

Slamdunks:
1. ND
2. UNC
3. UM

Next up:
4a. UVa - if you take UVa, you have the VA flagship, though if VaTech goes SEC, it will be a battle - UVa is fantastic at spring sports too
4b. GaTech - this is an academic slamdunk, but a risk of being eclipsed by UGa only 35-40 miles up the road - I think if the Big 10 takes GaTech, they are going to have to give SOLID assurances of spending more on athletics (UVa too), but it is hard to deny the MASSIVE size of Atlanta right now.

Longer shots:
5. F$U - they came thisclose to AAU membership, so one could argue that they stand a chance of getting an exception from the Big 10 for "we have faith you'll make it next time". So F$U COULD be a part of the mix.

HOWEVER, this is where SEC countermeasures come in.

I think F$U and Clemson would leap at SEC bids. The real questions would come from UNC-UVa, as those are the PRIMARY (not "only") two that have equal interest from both conferences. And if UNC-UVa pick the Big 10, then the SEC takes NC State-VaTech. But if UNC-UVa go to the SEC, then I think the Big 10 would take ND-UM-GaTech-F$U.
 
Dari Jabs said:
Haha when I posed the question I wasn't thinking about AAU. We don't know if the GOR dissolves tomorrow or 5 years from now, so I think its entirely possible some non-AAU schools become AAU in the interim. Lets completely ignore AAU for a second, and with that in mind who do you pick as a duo? Excluding ND.

I'm mainly wondering how you view Miami-FSU in terms of a package deal, relative to any other possible ACC package deals.
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I think Miami gets in to the BIG over FSU because of the research academics. In the SEC, it would be FSU all the way. I wouldn’t be shocked if the SEC would also pick UVA and VT over Miami. SEC though not BIG.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
Yes, I think it's:

Slamdunks:
1. ND
2. UNC
3. UM

Next up:
4a. UVa - if you take UVa, you have the VA flagship, though if VaTech goes SEC, it will be a battle - UVa is fantastic at spring sports too
4b. GaTech - this is an academic slamdunk, but a risk of being eclipsed by UGa only 35-40 miles up the road - I think if the Big 10 takes GaTech, they are going to have to give SOLID assurances of spending more on athletics (UVa too), but it is hard to deny the MASSIVE size of Atlanta right now.

Longer shots:
5. F$U - they came thisclose to AAU membership, so one could argue that they stand a chance of getting an exception from the Big 10 for "we have faith you'll make it next time". So F$U COULD be a part of the mix.

HOWEVER, this is where SEC countermeasures come in.

I think F$U and Clemson would leap at SEC bids. The real questions would come from UNC-UVa, as those are the PRIMARY (not "only") two that have equal interest from both conferences. And if UNC-UVa pick the Big 10, then the SEC takes NC State-VaTech. But if UNC-UVa go to the SEC, then I think the Big 10 would take ND-UM-GaTech-F$U.
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FSU would probably pick the SEC over the BIG I’d think.
 
QuattroCane said:
I'm guessing you meant Big10, not ACC, that said I think the SEC would take UNC because we're not a fit in that conference, IMO, and they already have a Florida school. The Big10 takes Miami.
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I meant the Big10. I do not think the Big10 takes Miami over UNC.
 
RVACane said:
FSU would probably pick the SEC over the BIG I’d think.
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I kiiiiiinda agree with you, but then all this AAU stuff happened and F$U seems pretty upset. I didn't realize they were so invested in that (maybe USF getting it over F$U is eating them up).

The $$$$$ associated with the academic side of the Big 10 dwarfs the sports money. Let's not forget, F$U tends to hire ex-politicians as university presidents and NOT "academics", so you may be right. I think it just depends on who wins the argument...the politician president who wants to make the fans happy, or the academics who want to make the university more money.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
I kiiiiiinda agree with you, but then all this AAU stuff happened and F$U seems pretty upset. I didn't realize they were so invested in that (maybe USF getting it over F$U is eating them up).

The $$$$$ associated with the academic side of the Big 10 dwarfs the sports money. Let's not forget, F$U tends to hire ex-politicians as university presidents and NOT "academics", so you may be right. I think it just depends on who wins the argument...the politician president who wants to make the fans happy, or the academics who want to make the university more money.
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I don’t blame them for being upset. I would prefer them to go where we go to keep the annual game and all
 
TheOriginalCane said:
OK, let's scramble this around.

If the Big 10 invites UNC, they are (initially) getting the flagship school without any competition in the state (unless the SEC takes NC State). North Carolina is the 9th largest state and is growing.

And while I love my alma mater, the contrast is that if the Big 10 enters the Florida market with UM, we are still a private school that will have to compete with Florida in the SEC, as well as (PRESUMABLY) F$U in the SEC and UCF in the Big 12.

I've made this argument previously, it's not just "does your state have the most eyeballs", it's also whether you have enough affinity and willingness to carry support in your home market(s).

And PURELY from a sports viewership standpoing, UNC offers a couple of things that UM isn't as strong at, namely a "flagship" state school with a lot more alums, and a "lead dog" status with very little competition from Duke/Wake and who-knows-what from NC State. Whereas, Miami brings viewers BUT ALSO has to compete with 2 or 3 OTHER in-state SEC/Big 12 programs.

I think UNC can deliver a higher PERCENTAGE of viewers in a smaller state (NC is #9 in population and is about half the population of FL), compared to Miami's lower percentage of viewers in a larger state (FL is #3 in population).

Sooo...larger slice of a smaller pie vs. smaller slice of a larger pie...
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What about with streaming/cable dying? I agree with his assessment that eyeballs on games is the main draw these days, not traditional (tv) markets.

There are certainly other elements that come into play, like geography, recruiting, etc. But make no mistake… the size of the contracts the networks are signing with the leagues guarantees that $$ rules above all. And in the coming decade, streaming numbers are more important than the number of households that can be reached. ESPN going to a DTC model in a few years only reinforces this.

I’m not saying UNC isn’t a better take than Miami. But I’m not not saying it either…
 
Ispyin said:
Dude, I know where it is

I’m talking about the networks trying capture new states and biggest metros in the state and the biggest metro in nc would be Charlotte. Even if you added in Raleigh Chapel Hill, it’s still wont exceed the Miami metro.
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oh my bad. But you would also add in Greensboro Winston Salem as well based on the geography of the two others. In addition, the percentage of people that follow college sports in general in Miami-Dade County is significantly lower. If this was 20 years ago and Miami was the old Miami it would be a moot discussion.
 
Dari Jabs said:
Thank you for providing a detailed, nuanced take.

Obviously ND is the white whale here. Lets say UNC is definitively the #2 option (not saying they aren't, but like who knows what every shot-caller is actually thinking).

Not sure where you rank Miami and FSU, but expansion historically occurs in pairs. A la "the whole is greater than the sum of the parts", us and FSU are not #1 targets on an individual basis, but looking at targets in terms of packages? I agree with your point about big slice/small pie & small slice/big pie, but what about majority stake in (arguably) the biggest pie? 4 biggest states in terms of talent are Florida, Texas, Georgia, Cali. SEC has Texas/Georgia & B1G has Cali. I think ~2/3 of Florida is worth more than NC (lmk if you disagree on that notion). Wouldn't B1G prioritizing us as a package over UNC be more advantageous? Having a majority share in Florida and diminishing SEC influence, instead of the other way around, would be a massive power shift, imo. Would surely be beneficial for us.

If the B1G adds us and FSU tomorrow and no one else, I think that instantly becomes the second best conference rivalry? For the record, as much as I dislike FSU, I hope we play each other forever. With the future of cfb scheduling looking unknown, I worry us ending up in different conferences may put an end to the rivalry.
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You should post more
 
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scrantoncane said:
What about with streaming/cable dying? I agree with his assessment that eyeballs on games is the main draw these days, not traditional (tv) markets.

There are certainly other elements that come into play, like geography, recruiting, etc. But make no mistake… the size of the contracts the networks are signing with the leagues guarantees that $$ rules above all. And in the coming decade, streaming numbers are more important than the number of households that can be reached. ESPN going to a DTC model in a few years only reinforces this.

I’m not saying UNC isn’t a better take than Miami. But I’m not not saying it either…
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I hear ya. And I'm not trying to argue AGAINST Miami, I'm just assessing what OTHERS think about Miami vs. UNC in the general pecking order.

I feel Miami and UNC are veryveryclose. Each of us have a couple of characteristics that the other does not have...
 
TheOriginalCane said:
I hear ya. And I'm not trying to argue AGAINST Miami, I'm just assessing what OTHERS think about Miami vs. UNC in the general pecking order.

I feel Miami and UNC are veryveryclose. Each of us have a couple of characteristics that the other does not have...
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Yeah, realistically speaking, it’s all semantics because it’s going to be 4. Miami/nd/unc + 1 more. My guess would he Virginia for the reasons you mentioned.
 
RVACane said:
I think Miami gets in to the BIG over FSU because of the research academics. In the SEC, it would be FSU all the way. I wouldn’t be shocked if the SEC would also pick UVA and VT over Miami. SEC though not BIG.
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Yes I agree B1G would prefer Miami over FSU. But why should they pick one or the other, instead of trying to get both of us? That's why I was asking about the B1G picking a duo from the ACC - is there any combination of ACC schools that would be more valuable than 2/3 of Florida?

We dislike recruiting against the SEC now, but that would get even worse with FSU to the SEC, as the SEC influence would become that much stronger. Rest of the B1G would struggle to get a foothold in Florida, which I assume is part of our attraction. Maybe B1G has zero interest in FSU, but that doesn't make sense, why give up the power to control the most talent-rich state in the country.

As I said earlier, I also just worry us two splitting results in the cancellation of our game. As a fan, that would suck immensely. From a business standpoint, both us and FSU lose some value if we no longer play each other. That goes for any team with a permanent historic rival, Michigan v OSU, Bama v Auburn, etc - they would all lose some value if their annual series was effectively canceled. Rivalry games are the most watched, and thus most valuable.
 
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Dari Jabs said:
Yes I agree B1G would prefer Miami over FSU. But why should they pick one or the other, instead of trying to get both of us? That's why I was asking about the B1G picking a duo from the ACC - is there any combination of ACC schools that would be more valuable than 2/3 of Florida?

We dislike recruiting against the SEC now, but that would get even worse with FSU to the SEC, as the SEC influence would become that much stronger. Rest of the B1G would struggle to get a foothold in Florida, which I assume is part of our attraction. Maybe B1G has zero interest in FSU, but that doesn't make sense, why give up the power to control the most talent-rich state in the country.

As I said earlier, I also just worry us two splitting results in the cancellation of our game. As a fan, that would suck immensely. From a business standpoint, both us and FSU lose some value if we no longer play each other. That goes for any team with a permanent historic rival, Michigan v OSU, Bama v Auburn, etc - they would all lose some value if their annual series was effectively canceled. Rivalry games are the most watched, and thus most valuable.
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Oh I see what you’re saying yeah, both is actually better. FSU to the SEC would hurt us more in recruiting I think looking at it this way.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
We are tied to Clemson for voting to kill the ACC. That doesn't mean we will go to the same conference.

We're all adults. We know the deal.
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Not disagreeing about the current status as you seem to know more about the inner workings, but last year there was talk from insiders that we were buddied up with Clemson in finding a new conference as a package. I'm assuming that was true at the time but has changed.

Now it looks closer to one larger voting block, with the focus on killing the ACC. It seems all the big names have a decent level of confidence in finding a home
 
DamnLiesAndStatistics said:
Not disagreeing about the current status as you seem to know more about the inner workings, but last year there was talk from insiders that we were buddied up with Clemson in finding a new conference as a package. I'm assuming that was true at the time but has changed.

Now it looks closer to one larger voting block, with the focus on killing the ACC. It seems all the big names have a decent level of confidence in finding a home
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No, that's not exactly what was said, and I was one of the people saying it, so I can tell you what I said because I've been consistent since last June when I got the news.

I said we were in the "buddy system" with Clemson. Clemson's new AD was Dan's protege. We were absolutely working together to GET OUT, but it's crazy to imagine that Clemson would have been a top pick of the Big 10.

It was always...ALWAYS...our two schools working together, but with no guarantee we were ending up in the same conference.

Though SEC for both of us would be nice.
 
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