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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

TheOriginalCane said:
Can you put a Jumpman logo in there too?
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brcane1 said:

Big Ten information. College football fan (@Genetics56)

Let's assume Notre Dame, Florida State, and Miami were added to the Big Ten and then some random no name to 20th. The contract value that FOX, CBS, NBC would pay would go from roughly $1B a year (the exact total is slightly higher than that but I want to use rounded numbers for simplicity)...
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Big Ten information. College football fan (@Genetics56)

After the Big Ten would add Notre Dame, and let's assume Florida State and Miami, the "expense" that FOX, NBC, and CBS would have to pay for a single Big Ten game would start to get to the point where adding more members would lead to the networks losing money from broadcasting Big Ten games...
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brcane1 said:

Big Ten information. College football fan (@Genetics56)

After the Big Ten would add Notre Dame, and let's assume Florida State and Miami, the "expense" that FOX, NBC, and CBS would have to pay for a single Big Ten game would start to get to the point where adding more members would lead to the networks losing money from broadcasting Big Ten games...
nitter.net nitter.net
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The direct comparison of the $18.5M single game estimate for the Mich v Suckeyes is almost certainly low depending on how they factored in bundled ad sales and other packages. Not to mention pre-game, lead up and follow on impacts, etc...

What I mean is the step up to $26M isn't quite as dramatic, which makes this more realistic in my eyes.
 
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Tracy724 said:
I rather us and FSU going to the same conference to because of that, and most importantly, I want to continue our annual meetings.
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Regardless of conference affiliations I would expect the networks who will be programming to optimize viewership to take historic rivalries into consideration even if it is via OOC games.
 
Rickd said:
Regardless of conference affiliations I would expect the networks who will be programming to optimize viewership to take historic rivalries into consideration even if it is via OOC games.
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I really hope you are right.
 
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Hold My Beer said:
Excellent posts Cane brothas!

My 2¢ on a few things:

1. Chances of Free Shoes, Clempson and their non-AAU accredited institutions not going to the S-E-C?

The Block React GIF by Celebrity Apprentice Australia


2. UNC's exaggerated value on the expansion market can be attributed to several factors:
  • iconic branding with Carolina Blue, alma mater of MJ, the blue-blood basketball program and its indisputable status as flagship institution of the ACC
  • UNC alumnus Jim Delany may be the retired Big Ten commissioner, but there's no doubt he's playing a major role in orchestrating the conference's expansion process. Fair to say Delany's top two targets are the Leprechauns and the Tar Heels
  • No way, no how does Greg Sankey want to see UNC defect to the B1G. He also knows the Heels can be a linchpin for also bringing in UVA and Duke, upping the SEC's basketball and academic profiles and, crucially, locking the B1G out of the South (here's where we have the debate on whether or not SoFla should be considered part of the South😃)
3. Our fearless mods did a poll a few months back on the SEC vs. B1G option for when we break free from the shackles of the ACC's GoR. IIRC it was like 55/45 in favor of the SEC. Be curious where those numbers stand now as it becomes clear several ACC schools — including Miami — have already begun plotting their escape routes.
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Here's the poll that I did a while back. It was pretty close.

www.canesinsight.com

POLL- Conferences: Where Do You Want to Go?

Let's get everyone on the record. I'm B1G.
www.canesinsight.com www.canesinsight.com
 
Locks for BIG10 and HAVE been offered:
Miami
ND
UNC

FSU has been offered by BIG10. I would put them at 90% to the Big10

Clemson/NC State is a lock for the SEC.

Both P2 wants into VA. now is for VA/VTECH. Big10 is favoring VA. the 2 conferences are working together behind the scenes to split them up My prediction is VA to BIG10 and VTECH to SEC.

Once the Big10 and SEC can agree and agree on a few other things, you will see 1 or 2 schools publicly announce and the floodgates will open. ND is screwed if they stay independent.

Louisville/Pitt to Big12

..... you heard it first

@genetics56 on twitter is a good source. he is plugged in but is not releasing everything as his sources haven't approved for him to publicly state a few things. soon though
 
Cane & Able said:
Locks for BIG10 and HAVE been offered:
Miami
ND
UNC

FSU has been offered by BIG10. I would put them at 90% to the Big10

Clemson/NC State is a lock for the SEC.

Both P2 wants into VA. now is for VA/VTECH. Big10 is favoring VA. the 2 conferences are working together behind the scenes to split them up My prediction is VA to BIG10 and VTECH to SEC.

Once the Big10 and SEC can agree and agree on a few other things, you will see 1 or 2 schools publicly announce and the floodgates will open. ND is screwed if they stay independent.

Louisville/Pitt to Big12

..... you heard it first

@genetics56 on twitter is a good source. he is plugged in but is not releasing everything as his sources haven't approved for him to publicly state a few things. soon though
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So 1 post on Jumpman and 1 post on Big 10 bids.

Interesting...
 
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Ispyin said:
Which are you implying that he’s a two post troll fake clout seeker or that he’s a new poster with Info lol
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Given the timing, it could very well be the latter.

I'd just point out that almost all the things he is saying are things that I've posted recently (as well as others). And that's not a "look-at-me" comment, it's just a reflection that a lot of this info comes from the same places and gets out to people with strong UM connections, so it's not just one person or one poster who hears this info.

The primary difference is that someone who has a 1-week-old log-in name and 2 posts seems very mysterious.

I feel that his info is fairly accurate. Do with that what you will.

And while a bunch of posters just learned what the AAU is this past week, I've been posting about UM's efforts to get in for years.

The next few months (and years) should be fun.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Given the timing, it could very well be the latter.

I'd just point out that almost all the things he is saying are things that I've posted recently (as well as others). And that's not a "look-at-me" comment, it's just a reflection that a lot of this info comes from the same places and gets out to people with strong UM connections, so it's not just one person or one poster who hears this info.

The primary difference is that someone who has a 1-week-old log-in name and 2 posts seems very mysterious.

I feel that his info is fairly accurate. Do with that what you will.

And while a bunch of posters just learned what the AAU is this past week, I've been posting about UM's efforts to get in for years.

The next few months (and years) should be fun.
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Wasn’t saying it’s inaccurate though not new at all.

less certain about the fsu part more due to not knowing how fsu athletic dept and school admin feel on the two options vs their fan base opinions

and for whatever reason - and I legit have no facts but just this weird feeling - I wonder if tClemson might want to go big ten if they got a chance to get that “prestige” layer, and that from a big game perspective big 10 and networks view, they also might want top heavy names to help schedule more premier inventory to balance out the Purdue Rutgers Indiana northwestern Illinois maryland portion that arent usually ratings magnets.
 
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RVACane said:
Their tv and social media brand value is higher as is their academics. The SEC and BIG 10 would both claw it out for them.
Football and men’s basketball combined:

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There are a few basic questions when it comes to CFB expansion.

1. Does the school fit as an institution academically?

This is purely a pass or fail. Once you pass you move to stage 2. With us getting AAU membership we unequivocally have passed. Whether UNC is better than us or not academically is honestly unimportant. Stanford and Cal are far superior to both of us (and Notre Dame), yet B10 presidents aren't willing to sacrifice money to get them because they don't pass #4, even though as a whole Stanford and Cals athletic programs are elite (UNCs is pretty elite too as a whole) and are even in a large market. By not inviting Stanford and Cal yet, the B10 presidents are saying we're not willing to get $5M/yr less by having them in our Conference, even though it would BY FAR make them the best Academically after the Ivy League - and perhaps surpass the Ivys.

2. Does the school fit Athletically?

This is an easy one, and is also a pass/fail. How much commitment is the school showing to their athletic programs? Miami invests far more in Football than UNC does. There are a bunch of schools that pass this metric, just like there are a lot that pass the academic metric. As a whole I'd say UNCs athletic program is very similar to like the Cals/UVA/etc where they have a lot of great athletics. But their key sport is clearly basketball. Football they are just basically average, and Football no matter what anyone says IS the answer to #4. Imagine it like this, you grade the athletics for each university where Football is weighted at minimum 24x, Mens Basektball is weighted 6x, Womens Basketball and Mens Baseball is weighted 2x, and everything else is in between at like 1x. That is the reality of what we are talking about here with realignment. UNC could have the #1 Basketball program of all time, and with a fringe top 40 football program they aren't athletically more important than a team with just a top 15 Football program worth, PERIOD. So athletically if we are talking fit, Miami ranks above UNC and UVA - imo pretty easily for the B10.

Ex) Lets say we are ranking athletic programs on a score of 0-100. Where the greatest football/basketball program all time gets 100pts, and the 100th or worse gets 0pts. Well if UNC is #1 basketball but only 40th in football, that'd be 100pts for basketball and 60pts for Football. With the weighting factor I just gave, that would get them 100*6 + 60*24 = 2,040 points towards their athletic grade. For Miami lets say we are top 15 football worth 85pts and literally 0 basketball. Well 0*6 + 85*24 = 2,040 points towards our athletic grade. And again I think just a 24x weight for football (only 4x more than basketball) may actually be low. Plus we are probably like in the 70-80s all time for basketball, and would rank quite high in baseball. And that was with a linear point assignment, when the reality is a top 15 football program is quite different (5 national championships vs 0 different) than a top 40 program.

3. Does the school fit Geographically/Culturally?

For the SEC the question of Geographical fit is going to be a much larger concern. The SEC and B10 are clearly going in diverging strategies regarding geography. The SEC is going to remain a South-East exclusive conference, while the B10 is going national. So UNC and Miami fit with both - again. Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, and some other schools only would fit the B10 and not in the SEC at all. So naturally they are at a disadvantage when it comes to realignment. But regardless Miami and UNC both pass here. I'd say culturally Miami is actually more of a B10 fit while UNC is more of an SEC fit even if they'd be top like 3 academics there. Both would be adding new states to the B10 footprint, but Miamis area is just plain better. For recruiting purposes and actual population, as well as having a lot of fans in the northeast.

4. Are Fox/NBC/CBS willing to pay up *** loads of money for them?

This is by far and away the most important aspect of all this. And Football is THE driver. People can post their made up brand rankings all they want, the reality is we have a far better football program than UNC and get better media ratings in Football. And in a conference like the B10, we would get far greater rankings against the Ohio States/Notre Dame/USC/etc than UNC would. Now this matters a lot more to the B10 than it actually would the SEC imo. The SEC wouldn't actually benefit as much from US as they would UNC likely, even with us being a better football program, simply because they already are winning National Championship after National Championship, already have the South East and a presence in Florida with UF, and especially if they get FSU. So UNC would be the next biggest population state they aren't currently already in. So it does make a lot of sense why the SEC would potentially value UNC and UVA more than Miami.

Basically I think if we were to do rankings by conference it'd look something like:

SECB10
Notre DameNotre Dame
FSUMiami
UNCFSU
ClemsonClemson
UVAUNC
NCSt/VTech (If the B10 gets UNC/UVA)UVA/Oregon/Washington
Stanford/Cal
 
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