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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Tad Footeball said:
I get what you're saying but I think even if we accept your entire premise that national eyeballs would easily negate UNC getting a larger share of a smaller market. UNC Football simply isn't a "national brand" at this point.

Answer me this and even use the current state of both Miami and UNC Football as the test subject. Is there a single Week 1 same timeslot game against a hypothetical B1G opponent where UNC being the ACC opponent would get higher ratings than Miami in that slot even if they crush it in the local market? I don't think it would be remotely close even if Maryland was the opponent.
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I agree with you, and I have always argued that (a) Miami grads (and fans) are more national than regional, and (b) lots of people hate-watch Miami.

So it's a complicated analysis.

I will also say this, from a risk-reward standpoint. I believe part of the reason that UNC is "extra" desirable to the Big 10 is because they could do some damage as a member of the SEC (assuming UNC spurns the Big 10).

Think about this, the SEC already has Florida. If the Big 10 wants to get into Florida, it can take one (or two) schools like UM and/or F$U that IN-STATE trail the University of Florida in viewership/fandom (again, for the moment, ignoring the "national" argument).

However, in North Carolina, if the Big 10 fails to secure UNC and UNC goes to the SEC...the dropoff is STEEEEEP. No way in **** will taking NC State, Duke, and/or Wake Forest be a sufficient "substitute" if the Big 10 loses out on UNC.

Just my 2 cents.
 
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RVACane said:
Because they’re considered a more desirable brand right now as the premier state school in North Carolina with a more stable following/viewership… and a better academic institution than UM. It’s known that they’re the top ACC pick for both the ACC and the SEC. If you want to believe otherwise, and think that both or either the SEC and/or ACC would pick UM over UNC then that’s fine.
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Not saying SEC or B1G would pick us over them, very possible both prefer UNC. Just stating my case for why that line of thinking seems flawed.

My opinion is also that all these 'reports' about who prefers who should be taken with a grain of salt. When OU/Texas got announced to the SEC and USC/UCLA to the B1G, there weren't any prior murmurs. Yes the moves obviously made sense, but there wasn't any talk of an impending move, like we're doing now. I recall Feldman on his pod saying he had no idea it was happening. Pretty sure Lincoln Riley said he had no idea. I just think that these decisions happen behind very closed doors with very few shot-callers.

Maybe I'm recalling incorrectly, but it seemed like no one really saw it coming.
 
QuattroCane said:
How do you come to the reasoning that they're a more desirable brand? Miami has improved their basketball program and I honestly think you'd be hard pressed to find many people that would chose to watch UNC vs anybody vs Miami vs anybody. What metrics are you using when you say they have a more stable following/viewership, for basketball sure, but football...They trail Miami by approx, 4k people in average attendance over the last four years.
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Let me ask you this… If the SEC and ACC had a choice of taking only one ACC school and the choices are UM and UNC, who do you think they’re taking?
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
I agree with you, and I have always argued that (a) Miami grads (and fans) are more national than regional, and (b) lots of people hate-watch Miami.

So it's a complicated analysis.

I will also say this, from a risk-reward standpoint. I believe part of the reason that UNC is "extra" desirable to the Big 10 is because they could do some damage as a member of the SEC (assuming UNC spurns the Big 10).

Think about this, the SEC already has Florida. If the Big 10 wants to get into Florida, it can take one (or two) schools like UM and/or F$U that IN-STATE trail the University of Florida in viewership/fandom (again, for the moment, ignoring the "national" argument).

However, in North Carolina, if the Big 10 fails to secure UNC and UNC goes to the SEC...the dropoff is STEEEEEP. No way in **** will taking NC State, Duke, and/or Wake Forest be a sufficient "substitute" if the Big 10 loses out on UNC.

Just my 2 cents.
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Yes UM/FSU trail Florida in viewership, but I think a lot of that gap is simply conference matchups. Any neutral fan would rather watch UF-LSU or UF-Tennessee over Miami-UVA or FSU-Wake Forest. If both Miami and FSU could regularly play Michigan/OSU/USC/PSU, I'm really not sure how much of a gap there would be. Heck, outside of Miami games, I consume way more SEC football than ACC football.
 
RVACane said:
Let me ask you this… If the SEC and ACC had a choice of taking only one ACC school and the choices are UM and UNC, who do you think they’re taking?
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For sake of discussion, we'll say they definitely take UNC. Now, what if everyone in the ACC is still on the table, and B1G has to take two?
 
Excellent posts Cane brothas!

My 2¢ on a few things:

1. Chances of Free Shoes, Clempson and their non-AAU accredited institutions not going to the S-E-C?

The Block React GIF by Celebrity Apprentice Australia


2. UNC's exaggerated value on the expansion market can be attributed to several factors:
  • iconic branding with Carolina Blue, alma mater of MJ, the blue-blood basketball program and its indisputable status as flagship institution of the ACC
  • UNC alumnus Jim Delany may be the retired Big Ten commissioner, but there's no doubt he's playing a major role in orchestrating the conference's expansion process. Fair to say Delany's top two targets are the Leprechauns and the Tar Heels
  • No way, no how does Greg Sankey want to see UNC defect to the B1G. He also knows the Heels can be a linchpin for also bringing in UVA and Duke, upping the SEC's basketball and academic profiles and, crucially, locking the B1G out of the South (here's where we have the debate on whether or not SoFla should be considered part of the South😃)
3. Our fearless mods did a poll a few months back on the SEC vs. B1G option for when we break free from the shackles of the ACC's GoR. IIRC it was like 55/45 in favor of the SEC. Be curious where those numbers stand now as it becomes clear several ACC schools — including Miami — have already begun plotting their escape routes.
 
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Dari Jabs said:
For sake of discussion, we'll say they definitely take UNC. Now, what if everyone in the ACC is still on the table, and B1G has to take two?
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I agree that’s as of now. I think if our FB returns to prominence, we’ll pass UNC easily on that stuff. Academics is a different issue.

The question you pose is a good one because there are other premier state schools like UVA who have us beat academically but they’re not UNC in sports. I’ve lived half my life in the DMV and Virginia. Maryland covers the DC area. VT isn’t AAU and neither is FSU nor Clemson so I think those guys are eliminated and I think we beat UVA. @TheOriginalCane, is this how you see it too? After UNC, with the AAU we’re ahead of UVA overall?
 
Dari Jabs said:
For sake of discussion, we'll say they definitely take UNC. Now, what if everyone in the ACC is still on the table, and B1G has to take two?
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Are you including ND as being on that table? If they only take two ... ND and UNC. So in order to take Miami they have to add four to keep even numbers.
 
Rickd said:
Are you including ND as being on that table? If they only take two ... ND and UNC. So in order to take Miami they have to add four to keep even numbers.
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No. They’re number one but not a full time member. After them.
 
RVACane said:
I agree that’s as of now. I think if our FB returns to prominence, we’ll pass UNC easily on that stuff. Academics is a different issue.

The question you pose is a good one because there are other premier state schools like UVA who have us beat academically but they’re not UNC in sports. I’ve lived half my life in the DMV and Virginia. Maryland covers the DC area. VT isn’t AAU and neither is FSU nor Clemson so I think those guys are eliminated and I think we beat UVA. @TheOriginalCane, is this how you see it too? After UNC, with the AAU we’re ahead of UVA overall?
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Haha when I posed the question I wasn't thinking about AAU. We don't know if the GOR dissolves tomorrow or 5 years from now, so I think its entirely possible some non-AAU schools become AAU in the interim. Lets completely ignore AAU for a second, and with that in mind who do you pick as a duo? Excluding ND.

I'm mainly wondering how you view Miami-FSU in terms of a package deal, relative to any other possible ACC package deals.
 
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Hold My Beer said:
Excellent posts Cane brothas!

My 2¢ on a few things:

1. Chances of Free Shoes, Clempson and their non-AAU accredited institutions not going to the S-E-C?

The Block React GIF by Celebrity Apprentice Australia


2. UNC's exaggerated value on the expansion market can be attributed to several factors:
  • iconic branding with Carolina Blue, alma mater of MJ, the blue-blood basketball program and its indisputable status as flagship institution of the ACC
  • UNC alumnus Jim Delany may be the retired Big Ten commissioner, but there's no doubt he's playing a major role in orchestrating the conference's expansion process. Fair to say Delany's top two targets are the Leprechauns and the Tar Heels
  • No way, no how does Greg Sankey want to see UNC defect to the B1G. He also knows the Heels can be a linchpin for also bringing in UVA and Duke, upping the SEC's basketball and academic profiles and, crucially, locking the B1G out of the South (here's where we have the debate on whether or not SoFla should be considered part of the South😃)
3. Our fearless mods did a poll a few months back on the SEC vs. B1G option for when we break free from the shackles of the ACC's GoR. IIRC it was like 55/45 in favor of the SEC. Be curious where those numbers stand now as it becomes clear several ACC schools — including Miami — have already begun plotting their escape routes.
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Hold My Beer
 


Not football related but reinforces the Colorado and Arizona movement rumors to the BIG 12
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
I'm very confused by the way that you seem to be arguing with people for no apparent reason. Perhaps it is your use of double and/or triple negatives.

I'm not sure that anyone has said otherwise.

The Big 10's top 3 are ND, UNC, and Miami, in that order. Which seems to mean that, outside of ND, Miami is 2 on the Big 10 list.




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AuoraCane said:
Chapel Hill is in the Raleigh Durham Metropolitan area not Charlotte. UNC is unique that when factoring its TV draw you would need to include the whole state of North Carolina (and the 3 or 5 largest Tv markets there). As someone that has lived in both North Carolina and Florida, UNC is much more woven into the fabric of the population and culture of the state. It is very similar to Ohio State as compared to University of Florida.
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Dude, I know where it is

I’m talking about the networks trying capture new states and biggest metros in the state and the biggest metro in nc would be Charlotte. Even if you added in Raleigh Chapel Hill, it’s still wont exceed the Miami metro.
 
I’m not sure ultimately what does or does not happen with FSU so I am under the impression that there are some in the FSU universe and maybe this holds true for Clemson that would like to stay with a conference that has more academic prestige (and more $) though I don’t know if that would overwhelm those who want SEC. I do think the Big Ten would take FSU because they’re pretty **** close to getting AAU soon enough. I’m not sure how they feel about Clemson, though I did find it interesting to learn that Michigan State was not AAU when they joined the conference - they later got the accreditation.
 
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