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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

All I know is that both the SEC and the B1G want the other conference to believe they are content and not expanding..... it's like a game of chicken...

the SEC won't just sit on their hands.. they thought they had taken an insurmountable leap forward by acquiring OU/Texas last year and then out of nowhere the B1G gets UCLA/USC.. that probably ruffled SEC's feathers a bit that people are even comparing the B1G and SEC and actually the B1G could end up with bigger contracts...

The SEC is looking to expand.. no way to they accept being behind or even close to B1G...
 
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Yoyo82 said:
All I know is that both the SEC and the B1G want the other conference to believe they are content and not expanding..... it's like a game of chicken...

the SEC won't just sit on their hands.. they thought they had taken an insurmountable leap forward by acquiring OU/Texas last year and then out of nowhere the B1G gets UCLA/USC.. that probably ruffled SEC's feathers a bit that people are even comparing the B1G and SEC and actually the B1G could end up with bigger contracts...

The SEC is looking to expand.. no way to they accept being behind or even close to B1G...
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Heavy hitters move in silence.

Follow the money
 
Cane6 said:
Heavy hitters move in silence.

Follow the money
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Yep! No way UM big dogs have been surprised by all of this, they are not spending huge money to be left in a ****** conference.

Plus: few people have been in the control room as much as Radakovich. Trust the process.
 
If we joined SEC in 2024 - so staying in ACC an additional year and not leaving immediately, I Just hope we can reduce the settlement to under $210M (6yrs membership worth of 2021 Conference Payout value). at max I wouldn’t accept anything over $275M -$300M (60% of Total GOR value in 2021 payout value) as reasonable.
 
calinative umstudent said:
If we joined SEC in 2024 - so staying in ACC an additional year and not leaving immediately, I Just hope we can reduce the settlement to under $210M (6yrs membership worth of 2021 Conference Payout value). at max I wouldn’t accept anything over $275M -$300M (60% of Total GOR value in 2021 payout value) as reasonable.
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Why pay all that if Clemson and possibly UNC and FSU are supposedly also in play? The conference is falling apart.
 
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grover said:
Why pay all that if Clemson and possibly UNC and FSU are supposedly also in play? The conference is falling apart.
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And falling apart on what timeline? If we leave before the conference falls apart we have to pay, period. How much we pay is the ONLY thing up for discussion, because as nice as it is to theorize, it is u likely 8 ACC members will vote to dissolve the conference - and **** it may even require 12 (supermajority). We are assuming simple majority is enough which honestly I doubt.

Now most likely we will be making yearly payments - and maybe the conference collapses before we pay the full amount. But we will have to pay something. I’d say absolute minimum we are looking at $105m million.

The standard ACC exit fee is 3yrs of conference payouts (so $35*3=$105m). then you also have to add GOR, which means we have to buy our media rights back from the conference - otherwise nobody would want us. That means if we leave after 2023 season we essentially owe the conference for 13yrs worth of conference payout-value (35*13=$455M). So total you’re talking $560m based on 2021 payouts to actually leave the ACC, if we don’t come to some settlement…

The good news is a $200M-300M settlement to leave would still net us like an additional almost $500M after being in the SEC until 2036 (when GOR ends). Literally the next 14 years each school in the SEC is expected to earn about $40M/yr more than the ACC schools. So just ask yourself what amount per year we want. If you want an additional $20m/yr we can afford An $280m exit…
 
calinative umstudent said:
The standard ACC exit fee is 3yrs of conference payouts (so $35*3=$105m). then you also have to add GOR, which means we have to buy our media rights back from the conference - otherwise nobody would want us. That means if we leave after 2023 season we essentially owe the conference for 13yrs worth of conference payout-value (35*13=$455M). So total you’re talking $560m based on 2021 payouts to actually leave the ACC, if we don’t come to some settlement…
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I think it eventually boils down to a settlement, b/c I think enough teams try to go/potential legal challenges, but has anyone seen anything that says they have to let a team buy out the remaining years? If there is nothing saying they have to, why would they? The schools get paid evenly, but certainly they don't draw evenly. So Miami leaving will cost them more than the average team leaving. Also, if you know that Miami (or any school) can leave and make $100M a year, why would you let them out for $35M? Why not say that they can leave for $50M? Apologies if it was discussed somewhere that the school has the option to buy out the remaining years on the contract.
 
Shogungts said:
I think it eventually boils down to a settlement, b/c I think enough teams try to go/potential legal challenges, but has anyone seen anything that says they have to let a team buy out the remaining years? If there is nothing saying they have to, why would they? The schools get paid evenly, but certainly they don't draw evenly. So Miami leaving will cost them more than the average team leaving. Also, if you know that Miami (or any school) can leave and make $100M a year, why would you let them out for $35M? Why not say that they can leave for $50M? Apologies if it was discussed somewhere that the school has the option to buy out the remaining years on the contract.
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The GOR is you have to meet the media obligations the Conference signed until 2036 - and ensure the conference doesn't get harmed by your exit (make up the difference $). What a school can make on the open market shouldn't be factored in at all, because we only need to meet our end of the actual current media agreement, which in 2021 had a value of $35M/yr. ... If you do try to factor in that we are "worth" $100M/yr on open market, then why the **** are we only getting 1/3rd that from the conference? I'd bet our lawyers would love for that to be the argument, particularly if the rumors regarding the GOR having performance -based outs were true...

Technically if we left and the conference earned the same amount of money - like say if ESPN didn't renegotiate OR only dropped the payout by what we would have received, then we would potentially owe nothing to the conference for GOR because they wouldn't be able to prove we harmed them - because on a per school basis the payout wouldn't be changing. If the member institutions money isn't getting decreased by us leaving how are they being harmed? It would be up to the court to determine if that was the correct interpretation though, cause I'm not a lawyer.

Plus I believe the exit fee (again not the same as the GOR) is owed because the leaving party agrees that leaving is an adverse affect on the conference. So that is already being factored in in a way. So assessing our GOR as worth more than $35M/yr would essentially be like double dipping if we are also being charged an Exit fee, so personally I Don't think it makes sense.

The previous high Conference Exit was Maryland paying the ACC $30M - which was 60% of the 3 year yearly conference payout at the time (before GOR agreement). The Exit fee is determined by the conference payout. So the GOR "value" should as well. It would also be debatable that the Conference would be able to levy a performance-based punishment (we are worth more $ than wake) for leaving when we don't get performance-based payments (we don't get more $ than Wake) for actually being in the conference.
 
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Genghis Cane said:
This is why we need to leave:

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idk why he changes the SEC/B12 numbers when the projections were made in march, and already included the OU/UT move to the SEC. The ACC projections are also different for some reason? ... So I wouldn't trust those numbers tbh. This is from the actual website making the projections (so just not inclusive of USC/UCLA move).
1657783936524.png


But yeah I said this regarding this graphic a few pages ago:
www.canesinsight.com

MEGA - Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Why would the more valuable schools and conferences (B1G/SEC) ever want to pool with the less valuable schools and conferences? The money these non-profit schools make go back into education, women's sports, capital projects, scholarships, and other things that help a university provide for its...
www.canesinsight.com www.canesinsight.com
 
Cane6 said:
Can anyone restate their position please?
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I did this in my OP before it got merged and this OP should do the same. All these pages and it’s the only somewhat credible insider news amongst of sea of blind speculation and OT posts.

Miami is working with Clemson to lead the charge to actively leave the ACC. Our likely target is the SEC. An announcement of some sort is likely before the season starts.
 
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He’s not a top candidate but I was told by a well connected friend of mine at Michigan that UMich had conversations with Julio Frenk about their university president position. He’s a not the lead candidate tho
 
Cane6 said:
He’s not a top candidate but I was told by a well connected friend of mine at Michigan that UMich had conversations with Julio Frenk about their university president position. He’s a not the lead candidate tho
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Thought I saw they hired someone?
 
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