Why Guidry has to go

[Moonman]

3rd quarter 7:38 left

Top 5 defense in the P4 has given up 38 points.

 

[Moonman]

A simpleton calling someone a simpleton?

You're nowhere near as clever as you think you are.

James, we've been going back and forth with each other for weeks now. You haven't made a single coherent argument the entire time. I would love to be able to have a sensible disagreement with you. How about we meet up and have a few beers. Cool with you?

 

[JamesQuall]

James, we've been going back and forth with each other for weeks now. You haven't made a single coherent argument the entire time. I would love to be able to have a sensible disagreement with you. How about we meet up and have a few beers. Cool with you?

I have no personal grudge against you. I simply disagree with your viewpoint. I would have no objection to having beers with a fellow Cane fan

 

[Moonman]

I have no personal grudge against you. I simply disagree with your viewpoint. I would have no objection to having beers with a fellow Cane fan

Same buddy. PM me.

 

[flips]

@Moonman I think the issue with using full season stats to assess the defense is it can hide what was plain to see: the defense got markedly worse as the year went on, starting with the USF game. Yes, we played much better offenses as the year went on, especially in the 2 games we lost, but the defense went from being susceptible to giving up just explosives to being unable to do anything well while still being bad at stopping explosives.

3rd down conversion rate allowed illustrates this:

(FBS ONLY GAMES)

3rd Down:

Full season: 51/138 (37%) I believe that puts us in the top third of teams for the year, not bad which goes to your point

UF & BSU: 2/21 (9.5%) awesome

Rest of season: 49/117 (41.9%) I believe that's around 93rd nationally, not good actually pretty terrible.

We also were quite bad at stopping teams from scoring TDs when the got into the red zone, giving up TDs ~63% of red zone opportunities. I don't see a site that ranks red zone TD% allowed and am too lazy to calculate our rank, but just taking a gander it looks like 63% TD allowed is a high rate in the red zone. I could be wrong.

So we gave up explosives at very high rate which led to scores from outside the red zone, and since we went from elite on 3rd down to well below average/bad as the year went on teams were able to get into the red zone more and more (when they didn't score from 20+ yards away) and we only stopped them from scoring TDs 37% of the time.

So, the defense not only broke often far away from the goal line, it also bent and then broke in the red zone far too much. It's a brutal combination.

Finally, I believe - at least until the Gtech game and perhaps after - our rushing defense numbers looked good/great. I hate to toot my own horn but after the VTech game I porsted here - more than once I think - that out run defense wasn't any good either. My guess is teams didn't run much against us because it was so easy to pass against us. When we finally played a team that had no choice but to run - Gtech - they ran the ball right at us and around us. When we had to stop Syracuse on the ground to get the ball back and try to save our season we got blown off the ball by a team that's objectively bad at running the ball.

 

[Moonman]

@Moonman I think the issue with using full season stats to assess the defense is it can hide what was plain to see: the defense got markedly worse as the year went on, starting with the USF game. Yes, we played much better offenses as the year went on, especially in the 2 games we lost, but the defense went from being susceptible to giving up just explosives to being unable to do anything well while still being bad at stopping explosives.

3rd down conversion rate allowed illustrates this:

(FBS ONLY GAMES)

3rd Down:

Full season: 51/138 (37%) I believe that puts us in the top third of teams for the year, not bad which goes to your point

UF & BSU: 2/21 (9.5%) awesome

Rest of season: 49/117 (41.9%) I believe that's around 93rd nationally, not good actually pretty terrible.

We also were quite bad at stopping teams from scoring TDs when the got into the red zone, giving up TDs ~63% of red zone opportunities. I don't see a site that ranks red zone TD% allowed and am too lazy to calculate our rank, but just taking a gander it looks like 63% TD allowed is a high rate in the red zone. I could be wrong.

So we gave up explosives at very high rate which led to scores from outside the red zone, and since we went from elite on 3rd down to well below average/bad as the year went on teams were able to get into the red zone more and more (when they didn't score from 20+ yards away) and we only stopped them from scoring TDs 37% of the time.

So, the defense not only broke often far away from the goal line, it also bent and then broke in the red zone far too much. It's a brutal combination.

Finally, I believe - at least until the Gtech game and perhaps after - our rushing defense numbers looked good/great. I hate to toot my own horn but after the VTech game I porsted here - more than once I think - that out run defense wasn't any good either. My guess is teams didn't run much against us because it was so easy to pass against us. When we finally played a team that had no choice but to run - Gtech - they ran the ball right at us and around us. When we had to stop Syracuse on the ground to get the ball back and try to save our season we got blown off the ball by a team that's objectively bad at running the ball.

You are 100% correct...

But again, my argument is that you have to judge our defense versus what the rest of the country is doing against comparable competition.

 

[SinisterCane]

Our Canes should have beat the **** brakes off both those teams by 90 points in each game.

Yet here we are again.

Another season, while some progress, but really far more failure. Far more what if, far more disappointment.

Meanwhile, SMU with players who probably wouldn't start for STA, at least made it to ACCCG.

Miami is looooooong past the point of correcting catastrophic atmospherics.

Miami being Miami.

 

[flips]

You are 100% correct...

But again, my argument is that you have to judge our defense versus what the rest of the country is doing against comparable competition.

Ok. Lemme get back to you on Monday am on vacation and on my phone just saw a couple of your posts that mentioned the 3rd down rate.

Generally I'd say most every college defense struggles to stop very good offenses these days, which I think is the meat of your argument. My gut says our defense is worse than the average defense at stopping good+ offenses but I don't have data on hand. Good weekend to ya.

 

[daddyincharge]

I’m going to give Mario the benefit of the doubt here and say that he was pushing that BS as a last ditch effort to get us into the CFP. He’s not stupid. He saw what we all saw…a defense that got worse as the season went on. That falls on coaching. Let’s see how this plays out. I think Guidry is gone which means absolutely bunk coming from me.

Let’s see our recruiting on offense seem good, defense not so much, anyone think it correlates to what recruits were seeing on the field

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

@JHallCanes @BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati @Empirical Cane am I crazy thinking that our defense was utter trash? Or was it actually average?

FSU had one of their best days on offense against us. With backup QBs.

 

[canefan96]

Bottom line is our Defense did good against Mid America and SW conference teams and sucked against ACC teams and regressed throughout the year.
Tired of the excuses, Mario took a chance on Guidry and we all saw him struggle with a bad scheme and game plans. Plus just don’t hear recruits throwing his name out there.
Guidry was in over his head.

 

[Swampcity]

Combination of both. Secondary (minus OJ, who did get cooked vs Cuse) was abysmal - but I place majority of the blame on Harris. Meesh had some bad moments as well but he also had some major moments to at least somewhat balance out his bad moments/play.

Harris was absolutely, undisputedly the weak spot on the DEF - and because Markeith and the freshmen weren’t ready to play, it hamstrung everyone, including Guidry IMO.

There’s just no way that Guidry, whom beat a 10 win Clemson team with basically ZERO help from our offense, just forgot how to coach defense. To me, it is fair to say perhaps he needs super solid players at Safety position for his DEF to be successful, but I say based on his full body of work, he’s earned the opportunity to run the DEF in Year 3 with Mario supplying him super solid Safety players via the portal.

Dawson struggled mightily with TVD/Emory and guys wanted him gone after last year too - he gets Cam and now has the #1 OFF in college football.

Dawson needs his QB and Guidry needs strong players at the Safety position.

You have made the best argument for Guidry so far. However, leading 21-0 at Syracuse is inexcusable to lose. Therefore I find Guidry guilty as charged!!