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"Upward trend" - Latest Vish/Sebastianpub Analysis

McGahee2TheHouse

McGahee2TheHouse

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http://sebastianspub.wordpress.com/2014/01/06/no-d-in-coral-gables/

NO D IN CORAL GABLES

JT Thomson (Follow on Twitter)

Al Golden went on the Joe Rose Show today on WQAM in Miami, and after giving a completely implausible version of events of what transpired the last few days with Penn State, shifted to a discussion of the play on the field.

He immediately went into a full throated defense of his defense, citing progress and laundry listing statistics. There is a problem with the approach that Golden took, however. This improvement does not take into account the difference in quality of opponents from 1 year to the next. Golden listed out specific, cherry picked statistics where the defense marginally improved, but this ignores the fact that the 2012 Miami Hurricanes played 2 top teams out of conference (Notre Dame and Kansas State), while the 2013 Miami Hurricanes played one of the softest schedules in program history.

For a fair and complete analysis, it is important to compare like to like. In his interview, Golden also brought up the 2011 team, pointing out how good it was by once again cherry picking metrics. But what about a complete analysis of Golden’s defense and the one that preceded his arrival under head coach Randy Shannon, comparing games in the conference so you are comparing apples to apples? Oh, we have you covered.

The statistics are from games against conference opponents only in each year. So it removes the good from the defense against Savannah State, etc… but it also removes the beatdowns from Notre Dame and Kansas State last year.

Essentially, this is about as fair a look, removing statistical noise and talent discrepancies, that you can take at a defense’s performance. And the results?

Conference Rankings

Total yards per game allowed

  • Dead last by 50 yards this year.
  • Next to last in 2012.
  • 8th in 2011.
  • 5th in 2010.

Total yards per play allowed

  • 13th this year.
  • 11th (of 12) last year.
  • 10th in 2011.
  • 5th in 2010.

Number of plays

  • Dead last this year.
  • Dead last last year.
  • 5th in 2011.
  • 4th in 2010.

Scoring defense in conference play

  • 12th this year.
  • 9th last year.
  • 4th in 2011.
  • 5th in 2010.

Analysis: So the one year they slow down the game, the scoring defense looks good. But in reality, the Canes were still getting gashed at a ridiculous level. Since Al Golden arrived on campus, and right when he arrived on campus, the overall quality of the defense plummeted. Moving from one of the top in the ACC to the bottom.

Sacks in conference play

  • Tied for last this year.
  • 11th last year.
  • 8th in 2011.
  • 5th in 2010.

Analysis: Golden said they improved on sacks this year. This is only because they ran up numbers against the dregs like Savannah State. Once in conference play, they were tied for worst in the ACC.

Tackles for loss in conference play

  • Last this year.
  • 11th last year.
  • 7th in 2011.
  • 1st in 2010.

Analysis: Basically, Miami doesn’t make plays behind the line of scrimmage against vaunted ACC O-Lines and Offenses. In 2010, the year prior to Golden’s arrival, they were the best in the conference at this.

Opponent 3rd down conversion % in conference

  • Last this year.
  • 10th last year.
  • 8th in 2011.
  • 2nd in 2010.

Opponent 3rd down conversions in conference

  • 13th this year.
  • 8th last year.
  • 4th in 2011.
  • 4th in 2010.

Opponent 4th down conversion % in conference

  • Last (83% ALLOWED!).
  • 5th last year.
  • 5th in 2011.
  • 1st in 2010.

Opponent 4th down conversions in conference

  • Tied for last this year.
  • Tied for 4th last year.
  • T-6 in 2011.
  • 1st in 2010

Analysis: The team doesn’t get off the field on 3rd down. They don’t get off the field on 4th down. Again, in 2011 when they slowed down the game, the number of conversions went down, but they still converted them at a ridiculous rate.

Opponent redzone touchdown conversion % in conference


  • 4th this year.
  • 8th last year.
  • 1st in 2011.
  • 2nd in 2010.

Opponent redzone touchdown conversions


  • 9th this year.
  • 12th last year.
  • 1st in 2011.
  • 2nd in 2010.

Analysis: The good thing about the defense is that when the opponent gets to the redzone, they actually do a good job of keeping the opponent from scoring touchdowns. The bad news is that they let them in there more times than anyone in the conference, so they get scored on one way or another.

Opponent plays of greater than 10 yards in conference

  • last this year.
  • last last year.
  • 10th in 2011.
  • 5th in 2010.

Opponent plays of greater than 20 yards in conference

  • 11th this year.
  • 9th last year.
  • 1st in 2011.
  • 5th in 2010.

Analysis: This is pretty remarkable. Not only is the defense not making plays behind the line of scrimmage, but other teams are converting big plays.

Turnovers forced conference play


  • tied for 6th this year.
  • tied for 2nd last year.
  • 10th in 2011.
  • 2nd in 2010.

Analysis: The Canes did a good job of forcing turnovers the last 2 years. Interestingly enough, even in this positive metric, it actually trended down this year.

Conclusions

The defensive “progress” and “upward trend” in performance Al Golden referenced in his Joe Rose Show interview are COMPLETELY attributable to the out of conference opponents being weaker. The defense has yet to improve in three years, and there is no statistical justification for continuing under the same defensive staff and/or scheme. We’ll close with this handy little chart showing the real lack of progress.

120.jpg

That, Canes Fans, is the defense that your head coach just said was improving and trending in the right direction.
 
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he sounds like a guy who wanted the job and wasn't confident they would offer...or they flat out told him they are going in another direction...I don't buy for one second that he turned them down.
 
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@ByTimReynolds: Since Nov. 1: Miami ranked 121st out of 123 FBS teams in two categories -- rushing TDs allowed and third-down conversion D.
 
wow after reading that...it is unreal how stupid he actually thinks people are...he points to an upward trend, which is basically BS up front, but then when you look at only conference statistics we are actually going completely in the wrong direction and the stats don't lie...this guy is such a fat, lying, wannabe politician it makes me sick.
 
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Great ******* post. I'm livid. Can you e-mail this to the AD, in case his head is up his ***?
 
Agree the D is pathetic. No more Shannon players. Get it done this year or GTFO if you keep Corch D on staff
 
mapcane said:
Great ****ing post. I'm livid. Can you e-mail this to the AD, in case his head is up his ***?
Click to expand...

Email that to everybody in the university...Al is making us a laughing stock ...the elite kids will trend in a direction to not want to come to Miami
 
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Despite being a positive the redzone stats are misleading because opponents score on so many big plays, they don't spend time in the redzone.
 
I try to be objective as they come. Those numbers don't lie.

I am not going to listen to anymore Golden press conferences or radio appearances. I don't care about anything he has to say anymore. He better fix the defensive problems and win football games or he should be and will be fired.
 
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