I prefer to isolate a logical big picture theme instead of nitpicking minutiae. Florida has been weaned as a more rugged team. That should be the difference, unless the Canes capitalize on the scoreboard early while we own the energy and before we've suffered too many punches to the gut.
Otherwise, the flow of the game will steadily favor the Gators. They'll cave in our finesse plays more often than we dare expect. They'll get pressure on the punter and create a big play or two on special teams, simply by being more relentless. It will look quite a bit like Florida's second half methodical punishment of Texas A&M last year on the road.
Obviously I hope my scenario is dead wrong but as a handicapper for 25+ years I try to apply the situational scenario that fits. In this case, Florida has simply followed its blueprint for a longer period, stockpiling premium talent and forced to be physical in their league. Golden has done an admirable patchwork job but we can't ignore that most of it is frosting...skill position players and smaller guys. You don't give up as many points as we did last year without a weak chin. This is somewhat like Hearns vs. Hagler. We need to shock them early otherwise the trend is the other way.
Morris provides a chance. Maybe we'll produce big plays out of nowhere despite the flow of the game running against us.
