In the transfer portal era the stats actually say the opposite.
2019 (8 transfers) - 3 PAC, 1 B1G, 1 SEC, 1 ACC, 1 AAC, 1 FCS (Pioneer)
2020 (5 transfers) - 3 AAC, 1 SEC, 1 CUSA
2021 (4 transfers) - 2 XII, 1 SEC, 1 Mountain West
2022 (11 transfers) - 5 PAC, 2 XII, 1 ACC, 1 SEC, 1 B1G, 1 CUSA
2023 (4 transfers and counting) - 1 PAC, 1 SEC, 1 Sun Belt, 1 AAC
That's 32 total transfers. 9 PAC, 5 SEC, 4 XII, 2 B1G, 2 ACC, 9 G5, 1 FCS. Since the transfer portal's inception (and only looking at P5 conferences) we're most likely to get a kid from the PAC, then the SEC, then XII, and finally the ACC and B1G.
Probably still a shot in the dark, but one that bucks the recent trend for UM transfers.