forums

***THE DEFINITIVE PLAYOFF THREAD***

OrangeBowlMagic

OrangeBowlMagic

CEO
Joined
Jul 13, 2014
Messages
16,173
I've seen so much speculation and misinformation on here and on the internet, it's driving me crazy, so I wanted to put something together for you guys that I believe is essentially factual.

First of all, IMO (and I think this is probably 99.9% correct), 11 spots are locked down. In no particular order:

Oregon
Penn State
Ohio State
Indiana
UGA
Texas
Tennessee
Notre Dame
SMU
Big 12 champ winner (Arizona State vs Iowa State winner)
Group of 5 champ winner (Boise State vs UNLV winner)

No matter what happens on Saturday, these 11 spots are locked. You can argue SMU if they lose, but I think they're in regardless. The committee has said every week you're not going to be punished for making a conference championship, and I agree. So I think they're in, win or lose.

So, what does this mean? It means, IF SMU BEATS CLEMSON, there will be 1 more team that gets in. The pool for that team is almost certainly Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.

None of those teams play on Saturday, meaning however they're ranked tonight is likely how they will be ranked on Sunday when all this is finalized. Also remember, the Big 12 leader, which is currently Arizona State, is going to be ranked OUTSIDE the Top 12 this week, but they are guaranteed a spot, meaning the last team in the field when the rankings are unveiled tonight will be ranked #11. THIS IS THE SPOT MIAMI NEEDS, OR IT'S OVER. Again, Miami needs to be #11 or better tonight to have a shot at the playoffs. If we're #12 or lower, that means at least one of Alabama, USCe, or Ole Miss is ahead of us, and we won't jump them next week.

One final thing, even if we are #11 tonight, we MUST have SMU beat Clemson on Saturday night. If Clemson wins that game, they are in the field, and as I said above, SMU likely stays in as well, meaning that pool of Miami, Bama, USCe, and Ole Miss would ALL be out. Those "bubble" teams are all rooting bigly for SMU to beat Clemson. If Clemson wins, we are not making the field.

So, we need 2 things to happen. BOTH of these need to happen, or we are out:

1. We need to be ranked 11th or better tonight.
2. We need SMU to beat Clemson Saturday night.

If both of those things happen, we make the playoff. If one or both do not, we're out.

Let me know if you disagree with any of this, but I don't see how you can. I think this is about as cut and dry as you can have it at this point. We need to be ahead of all of the 3 loss SEC teams tonight, and we need SMU to keep Clemson from stealing a bid this weekend.
 
Advertisement
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I've seen so much speculation and misinformation on here and on the internet, it's driving me crazy, so I wanted to put something together for you guys that I believe is essentially factual.

First of all, IMO (and I think this is probably 99.9% correct), 11 spots are locked down. In no particular order:

Oregon
Penn State
Ohio State
Indiana
UGA
Texas
Tennessee
Notre Dame
SMU
Big 12 champ winner (Arizona State vs Iowa State winner)
Group of 5 champ winner (Boise State vs UNLV winner)

No matter what happens on Saturday, these 11 spots are locked. You can argue SMU if they lose, but I think they're in regardless. The committee has said every week you're not going to be punished for making a conference championship, and I agree. So I think they're in, win or lose.

So, what does this mean? It means, IF SMU BEATS CLEMSON, there will be 1 more team that gets in. The pool for that team is almost certainly Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.

None of those teams play on Saturday, meaning however they're ranked tonight is likely how they will be ranked on Sunday when all this is finalized. Also remember, the Big 12 leader, which is currently Arizona State, is going to be ranked OUTSIDE the Top 12 this week, but they are guaranteed a spot, meaning the last team in the field when the rankings are unveiled tonight will be ranked #11. THIS IS THE SPOT MIAMI NEEDS, OR IT'S OVER. Again, Miami needs to be #11 or better tonight to have a shot at the playoffs. If we're #12 or lower, that means at least one of Alabama, USCe, or Ole Miss is ahead of us, and we won't jump them next week.

One final thing, even if we are #11 tonight, we MUST have SMU beat Clemson on Saturday night. If Clemson wins that game, they are in the field, and as I said above, SMU likely stays in as well, meaning that pool of Miami, Bama, USCe, and Ole Miss would ALL be out. Those "bubble" teams are all rooting bigly for SMU to beat Clemson. If Clemson wins, we are not making the field.

So, we need 2 things to happen. BOTH of these need to happen, or we are out:

1. We need to be ranked 11th or better tonight.
2. We need SMU to beat Clemson Saturday night.

If both of those things happen, we make the playoff. If one or both do not, we're out.

Let me know if you disagree with any of this, but I don't see how you can. I think this is about as cut and dry as you can have it at this point. We need to be ahead of all of the 3 loss SEC teams tonight, and we need SMU to keep Clemson from stealing a bid this weekend.
Click to expand...
We put ourselves in a really tough spot. I was indifferent on us making the playoffs…. But IMO in order to avoid Opt Outs Miami has to be in the playoffs! And yes, on both.
 
The only other possibility I would entertain, and it would be more just hope than anything, is if we were 12 and SCar 11 and SMU just kicked the **** out of Clemson. Like a total dog walking, 49-14 type game. At that point they may take a look at SCar and say their best win is a team that lost 4 games, and 3 of them weren’t even close but they hung with SCar and were up late in the 4th.
 
I think smu will beat Clemson but I am very skeptical that we will be #11 tonight. I am still hoping for a miracle. Cam Ward and Restrepo and this offense deserves to make the playoff. We canes fans deserve a break too. Go canes!
 
Advertisement
I'm not exactly sure why another playoff thread was needed. Everyone just needs to prepare to be disappointed. It's been tough being a cane fan the last 20 years, but we should be used to it by now. This program seems snake bitten. Anyways, think we need to focus on what is going to be available in the portal since recruiting went to **** as well. I believe Emory can play the bowl game and still retain his redshirt. Maybe he comes out and plays outstanding.
 
TwentySix said:
The only other possibility I would entertain, and it would be more just hope than anything, is if we were 12 and SCar 11 and SMU just kicked the **** out of Clemson. Like a total dog walking, 49-14 type game. At that point they may take a look at SCar and say their best win is a team that lost 4 games, and 3 of them weren’t even close but they hung with SCar and were up late in the 4th.
Click to expand...

I guess that's in the realm of possibility but they've been outspoken that conference championship games aren't going to kill you, and I think SMU will likely be #7 or #8 tonight, so dropping them all the way to #13 just for losing a game they earned their way into while teams like Indiana and Tennessee sit at home safe for NOT making their conference championship isn't gonna happen.
 
It is literally that simple, I agree. After Syracuse I was sure we would be crushed by the committee but now I’m not so sure. We’ll know where we stand tonight, and if there is a chance to see 1 play again in a Canes uniform. Still have to have SMU win, but at least we would have something to root for.

I don’t think the committee will rank South Carolina ahead of Alabama or Ole Miss - they lost to those teams head to head. They have shown when other things are equal (like records) that head to head rules. So take out South Carolina (my opinion of course, we’ll find out for sure tonight).

Ole Miss lost to a team that we beat. Transitive property does not hold in any sport, of course - but if we’re comparing resumes, it’s a data point that I would think would be considered. They have better wins, but lost to a team that we beat head to head. Hopium, yay!

Alabama….oh, Alabama. My head says they will get the nod, but of course my heart says we’ll be ranked ahead. Their loss to Oklahoma was a total ****. If we’re splitting hairs, I guess we would have to look at common opponents - USF may be the deciding factor, honestly. We both played USF, they had to work harder to pull away in the end, and they played at home. We started slow but ran them off their own field in the end. As close as it’s going to be between the teams - this may be the deciding factor (though would they actually admit that?), which is just weird. Again - hopium, but it’s a data point.

GT taking UGA to 8 overtimes likely helps optics a little as well. Would have been better if they could close the deal out of course.

I was 100% convinced we were out on Saturday night. Now…I’m not so sure. I’m curious to see where we land, and if I have to pay attention this weekend.
 
Advertisement
kccanefan said:
I'm not exactly sure why another playoff thread was needed. Everyone just needs to prepare to be disappointed. It's been tough being a cane fan the last 20 years, but we should be used to it by now. This program seems snake bitten. Anyways, think we need to focus on what is going to be available in the portal since recruiting went to **** as well. I believe Emory can play the bowl game and still retain his redshirt. Maybe he comes out and plays outstanding.
Click to expand...

Because look at the post directly above yours. "Big 12 Champ would knock Canes out" NO! That is not correct. The Big 12 champ is already in the math here.

So people still can't understand the big picture here. There's 5 different threads of nonsense on this stuff. I'm trying to help some folks out who aren't as big of a ******* loser as I am and haven't digested all this crap ad nauseum.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I guess that's in the realm of possibility but they've been outspoken that conference championship games aren't going to kill you, and I think SMU will likely be #7 or #8 tonight, so dropping them all the way to #13 just for losing a game they earned their way into while teams like Indiana and Tennessee sit at home safe for NOT making their conference championship isn't gonna happen.
Click to expand...
No no, I’m saying SMU kills Clemson and makes South Carolina’s best win look worse, I could at least see the possibility if they had us 12 and SCar 11 this week but it was close, if that kind of ding on their resume could have them reevaluate.

Clemson wins and we’re out.
 
AutoCANE said:
It is literally that simple, I agree. After Syracuse I was sure we would be crushed by the committee but now I’m not so sure. We’ll know where we stand tonight, and if there is a chance to see 1 play again in a Canes uniform. Still have to have SMU win, but at least we would have something to root for.

I don’t think the committee will rank South Carolina ahead of Alabama or Ole Miss - they lost to those teams head to head. They have shown when other things are equal (like records) that head to head rules. So take out South Carolina (my opinion of course, we’ll find out for sure tonight).

Ole Miss lost to a team that we beat. Transitive property does not hold in any sport, of course - but if we’re comparing resumes, it’s a data point that I would think would be considered. They have better wins, but lost to a team that we beat head to head. Hopium, yay!

Alabama….oh, Alabama. My head says they will get the nod, but of course my heart says we’ll be ranked ahead. Their loss to Oklahoma was a total ****. If we’re splitting hairs, I guess we would have to look at common opponents - USF may be the deciding factor, honestly. We both played USF, they had to work harder to pull away in the end, and they played at home. We started slow but ran them off their own field in the end. As close as it’s going to be between the teams - this may be the deciding factor (though would they actually admit that?), which is just weird. Again - hopium, but it’s a data point.

GT taking UGA to 8 overtimes likely helps optics a little as well. Would have been better if they could close the deal out of course.

I was 100% convinced we were out on Saturday night. Now…I’m not so sure. I’m curious to see where we land, and if I have to pay attention this weekend.
Click to expand...

Good post, and I agree.

One thing I will say, and I've said this in other threads but not yet here, is I speak to someone who models the playoff committee's decisions and has for a very long time, and he is VERY good as forecasting what they do, and have historically done. This obviously doesn't mean ****, as he's sometimes wrong by a spot or two, but he's not just throwing stuff at the wall and hoping it sticks, he's good at projecting the order......he told me Miami will be #11 tonight.

We'll find out in about 10 hours or whatever, but for now we still have a heartbeat.
 
Advertisement
TwentySix said:
No no, I’m saying SMU kills Clemson and makes South Carolina’s best win look worse, I could at least see the possibility if they had us 12 and SCar 11 this week but it was close, if that kind of ding on their resume could have them reevaluate.

Clemson wins and we’re out.
Click to expand...

**** my bad, I totally misread what you said. I'm tracking with you now. Yeah, we need SMU to win, for certain. Having them beat the **** out of Clemson in the process certainly wouldn't hurt.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
**** my bad, I totally misread what you said. I'm tracking with you now. Yeah, we need SMU to win, for certain. Having them beat the **** out of Clemson in the process certainly wouldn't hurt.
Click to expand...
lol all good, it’s a lot of hypotheticals and would also center on the committee being willing to admit they were wrong.

And. Well. Yeah.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Because look at the post directly above yours. "Big 12 Champ would knock Canes out" NO! That is not correct. The Big 12 champ is already in the math here.

So people still can't understand the big picture here. There's 5 different threads of nonsense on this stuff. I'm trying to help some folks out who aren't as big of a ******* loser as I am and haven't digested all this crap ad nauseum.
Click to expand...

I gotcha. I wasn't trying to be rude and appreciate your breakdowns this season. However, that post above mine doesn't have the Big 12 Champ in the top 12 which puts us at 13. Which is most likely what is going to happen. We're all sad and extremely disappointed. I'm not looking to get my hopes up for nothing. The math just isn't there.
 
Advertisement
kccanefan said:
I gotcha. I wasn't trying to be rude and appreciate your breakdowns this season. However, that post above mine doesn't have the Big 12 Champ in the top 12 which puts us at 13. Which is most likely what is going to happen. We're all sad and extremely disappointed. I'm not looking to get my hopes up for nothing. The math just isn't there.
Click to expand...

The math is there, that's what I'm trying to convey. This is very straightforward. If SMU beats Clemson on Saturday night, one of Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss, or South Carolina is getting into the playoff. Period. There is no ambiguity here at all. It's as cut and dry as it can be.

The question is, of those 4 teams, which one is ranked highest tonight? Whichever one is ranked highest tonight, those numbers will not move between now and Sunday, because none of those teams play any other games. So we need to be ranked ahead of those 3 other teams to have a shot.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I've seen so much speculation and misinformation on here and on the internet, it's driving me crazy, so I wanted to put something together for you guys that I believe is essentially factual.

First of all, IMO (and I think this is probably 99.9% correct), 11 spots are locked down. In no particular order:

Oregon
Penn State
Ohio State
Indiana
UGA
Texas
Tennessee
Notre Dame
SMU
Big 12 champ winner (Arizona State vs Iowa State winner)
Group of 5 champ winner (Boise State vs UNLV winner)

No matter what happens on Saturday, these 11 spots are locked. You can argue SMU if they lose, but I think they're in regardless. The committee has said every week you're not going to be punished for making a conference championship, and I agree. So I think they're in, win or lose.

So, what does this mean? It means, IF SMU BEATS CLEMSON, there will be 1 more team that gets in. The pool for that team is almost certainly Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.

None of those teams play on Saturday, meaning however they're ranked tonight is likely how they will be ranked on Sunday when all this is finalized. Also remember, the Big 12 leader, which is currently Arizona State, is going to be ranked OUTSIDE the Top 12 this week, but they are guaranteed a spot, meaning the last team in the field when the rankings are unveiled tonight will be ranked #11. THIS IS THE SPOT MIAMI NEEDS, OR IT'S OVER. Again, Miami needs to be #11 or better tonight to have a shot at the playoffs. If we're #12 or lower, that means at least one of Alabama, USCe, or Ole Miss is ahead of us, and we won't jump them next week.

One final thing, even if we are #11 tonight, we MUST have SMU beat Clemson on Saturday night. If Clemson wins that game, they are in the field, and as I said above, SMU likely stays in as well, meaning that pool of Miami, Bama, USCe, and Ole Miss would ALL be out. Those "bubble" teams are all rooting bigly for SMU to beat Clemson. If Clemson wins, we are not making the field.

So, we need 2 things to happen. BOTH of these need to happen, or we are out:

1. We need to be ranked 11th or better tonight.
2. We need SMU to beat Clemson Saturday night.

If both of those things happen, we make the playoff. If one or both do not, we're out.

Let me know if you disagree with any of this, but I don't see how you can. I think this is about as cut and dry as you can have it at this point. We need to be ahead of all of the 3 loss SEC teams tonight, and we need SMU to keep Clemson from stealing a bid this weekend.
Click to expand...
No way we are dodging two bullets here. Either the committee does the job tonight or if that shakes out, you know Clemson will get the kill shot.

So disappointing we could not handle our business when we had it all in our hands.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Good post, and I agree.

One thing I will say, and I've said this in other threads but not yet here, is I speak to someone who models the playoff committee's decisions and has for a very long time, and he is VERY good as forecasting what they do, and have historically done. This obviously doesn't mean ****, as he's sometimes wrong by a spot or two, but he's not just throwing stuff at the wall and hoping it sticks, he's good at projecting the order......he told me Miami will be #11 tonight.

We'll find out in about 10 hours or whatever, but for now we still have a heartbeat.
Click to expand...
I hope you are right.
 
Advertisement
Back
Top