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90scane said:
If you believe we are in or heading to an AI Cold War, nvidia is the new big defense spending company of choice. The negative concerns- Trump is trying to keep gpus out of the Chinese hands. This could get China to spend tons to replace nvidia and tmsc or they could just invade Taiwan
And South Korea to consolidate enough chip production to isolate the west. Short term- I’m more concerned with liquidity as a major part nvidia revenue is tied to consumers (TikTok, meta, Microsoft, Apple…). If consumers slow their spending, do we see those companies slow their purchases. Compounding the cost of money for fabs, energy, engineers…
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China will not invade Taiwan….they are still good at stealing our technology
TSMC a is a LTH.
 
DoctorKrazey said:
Yea, I saw the other day where TSMC is trying to acquire Intel, which obviously would make China nervous. I can’t see Intel being viable much longer, especially if Trump axes the CHIPS Act, which he seems to be convinced is the right move. There’s mixed feelings on abolishing the CHIPS Act from those even on the right so I’m curious where you stand on that.
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Intel is viable for a long time just based on PC chips. If they get their **** together, they could get a large piece of the AI chip business but likely designing and fabricating specialized chips.

Some of the magnificent 7 could and are challenging nvidia. Google for example has their own chips for Gemini. Microsoft is designing chips and tmsc could fabricate them much like nvidias. Tesla designs some of its own chips so Elon could decide that chip design is his next big venture with x.ai…

Another major challenge for nvidia is unrelated to direct competition. The government regulations could slow permitting for the massive data centers and power plants needed for them. Yes, most of them need enough power that a power plant has to be built. Next gen data centers are 2megawatts or more. Japan, China, USA are likely willing to look the other way. Europe, not so likely. Then you look at energy sources and the USA has natural gas reserves for another 100 years. China and Japan would need to go with nuclear which just takes a ton longer to build.
 
mr.h said:
China will not invade Taiwan….they are still good at stealing our technology
TSMC a is a LTH.
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most people don’t know that Trump is now blocking 35 countries from buying the latest and greatest GPUs all to keep them out of the hands of China.

You are assuming that chip design and fabricating is easy. They are behind by 5-10 years. They would have to invade Korea and Taiwan to gain the human knowledge not documented but in the heads of engineers in those two countries. The other benefit is clearly having Fabs already built that control most of the world’s economy. Oregon has a Fab that does produce a ton of chips as well and has some amazing engineers. We should work hard to on-shore as many bright minds and build more fabs.

I would put chip production ahead of energy production in terms of security. We produce energy from so many different sources and different plants that we have security with dispersion. Chips production on the other hand is much more difficult and we only have one of three centers for most of the knowledge in the world.

If China decides it wants to be the AI world leader, they would have only one choice: military force in neighboring countries that have the knowledge. We are likely 5 years away from it being too late for China. Thus, the next 5 years are going to be crazy.

Thus, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan should factor into investors minds.

One thing likely holding them back isn’t our military but the risk of destroying the knowledge and fabs. A small earthquake takes the fabs offline until the engineers can fix everything. Imagine bombs and losing a few key engineers.
 
90scane said:
GDP growth is not strong.
Inflation was lower in the summer thus going up.
The reverse repo is drained of trillions.
The treasury is drained.
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Now we are going to have lower GDP and economic growth plus higher inflation because of tariffs and federal job cuts.
And you are right. He's not getting through to me. Trump and Musk are handling this all wrong. We are trying to keep advanced chip production out of China’s hands.
 
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mr.h said:
Now we are going to have lower GDP and economic growth plus higher inflation because of tariffs and federal job cuts.
And you are right. He's not getting through to me. Trump and Musk are handling this all wrong. We are trying to keep advanced chip production out of China’s hands.
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You know what they say:

Opinions are like ********. Everybody has one and they all stink!
 
USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar)
-20 -1.00 -1.9 5.7
03:00
USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
0.2% -1.37 0.7% -1.2%
03:00
USD Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb)
3.1% - - 3.9%
03:00
USD Retail Sales Control Group (Feb)
1% - - -1%
03:00
USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Feb)
0.3% -0.56 0.5% -0.6%
Retail sales down for February…could be in anticipation of tariffs?
Inflation for February was down, so it’s possible the Fed would cut rates. I’m sure the Fed Chairman is under pressure to do so.
 
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They are not ruling out rate cuts but…

Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration threaten to boost inflation and weaken economic growth​

President Donald Trump has brought about a sudden, dramatic shift in U.S. trade policy since returning to the White House. His administration has imposed tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Europe, as well as steel and aluminum. Also, Trump has threatened to hit European goods with tariffs, and he plans to impose reciprocal tariffs in April.

David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Chase, recently enumerated the risks, saying, "The trouble with tariffs, to be succinct, is that they raise prices, slow economic growth, cut profits, increase unemployment, worsen inequality, diminish productivity, and increase global tensions."
 
mr.h said:
They are not ruling out rate cuts but…

Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration threaten to boost inflation and weaken economic growth​

President Donald Trump has brought about a sudden, dramatic shift in U.S. trade policy since returning to the White House. His administration has imposed tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Europe, as well as steel and aluminum. Also, Trump has threatened to hit European goods with tariffs, and he plans to impose reciprocal tariffs in April.

David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Chase, recently enumerated the risks, saying, "The trouble with tariffs, to be succinct, is that they raise prices, slow economic growth, cut profits, increase unemployment, worsen inequality, diminish productivity, and increase global tensions."
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I'm not taking a pro-tariff position at all, but isn't that exactly what taxes do as well?
 
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Powell’s remarks seemed favorably…
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday for the second meeting in a row and maintained a prior prediction for two rate cuts at some point this year.
Fed officials now see inflation staying higher this year than previously estimated and economic growth going lower than prior predictions.
And the US economy is now projected to grow at an annualized pace of 1.7% instead of 2.1%. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 4.4% from 4.3% previously.
"There are so many things we don’t know," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference Wednesday, and "uncertainty is remarkably high."
But what is known about tariffs, he added, is that they "tend to bring growth down and they tend to bring inflation up."
 
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The Federal Reserve chairman said in no uncertain terms that Trump's trade agenda would be likely to drive up prices, even amid considerable uncertainty about exactly how much — and whether the price changes would be "transitory."

In just one example Wednesday afternoon during a question about price stability, Powell said that inflation had previously neared that key Fed goal but now "I do think with the arrival of the tariff inflation, further progress may be delayed."
 
mr.h said:
When is Tesla a buy?
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I imagine Q1 Earning are going to be a **** show. Model Y lines were down across the globe to transition to the update. Production going to take a massive hit. And with all the negative PR currently, Musk will likely go off on the earnings call tbh, and that'll generate even more negative pr.
Just my thought. We'll see though
 
There are more factors at play than just tariffs. April 2 tariffs could cause inflation. Congress could fail to deliver on the tax cuts offsetting the inflation from tariffs and causing even more consumer pain. DOGE refunds could cause even more inflation but offset the tariff costs at least for a year or two. Ironic that Powell says tariffs will cause inflation YET the FED easing on QT from 60B to 5B isn't?
 
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