forums

Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

Calinative said:
I imagine Q1 Earning are going to be a **** show. Model Y lines were down across the globe to transition to the update. Production going to take a massive hit. And with all the negative PR currently, Musk will likely go off on the earnings call tbh, and that'll generate even more negative pr.
Just my thought. We'll see though
Click to expand...
Some Tesla execs dumping.
 

Advertisement
90scane said:
There are more factors at play than just tariffs. April 2 tariffs could cause inflation. Congress could fail to deliver on the tax cuts offsetting the inflation from tariffs and causing even more consumer pain. DOGE refunds could cause even more inflation but offset the tariff costs at least for a year or two. Ironic that Powell says tariffs will cause inflation YET the FED easing on QT from 60B to 5B isn't?
Click to expand...
He's trying to stimulate the economy and trying to lower interest rates…and yes it could be inflationary..
 
mr.h said:
He's trying to stimulate the economy and trying to lower interest rates…and yes it could be inflationary..
Click to expand...

The FED hardly mentioned Biden’s policy impacts on inflation. No mention of how spending money like crazy would increase inflation. No mention of how treasury did QE while they were doing QT. No mention of how they used the reverse repo to do back door QE while they were doing QT.

They are simply deflecting blame to Trump for a likely recession that was in the books from the fall. They should have eased more and sooner. The fact they kept QT and didn’t lower rates more is likely more to blame for the recession than trumps talks of tariffs, yes talks. Insane to think a president can talk an economy into recession vs the m2 monetary policy.
 
They are saying that tariffs are inflationary and there is uncertainty. They still mentioned 2 rate cuts. If we get stagflation, it’s all on the Trump administration.
QE could be inflationary.
Who knows if Trump will pull back the Tariffs…
 
Last edited:
Advertisement
03:00
USD Continuing Jobless Claims
1.892M 0.11 1.89M 1.859M
03:00
USD Current Account (Q4)
$-303.9B 1.31 $-325.5B $-310.3B
03:00
USD Initial Jobless Claims
223K -0.09 224K 220K
03:00
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
227K - - 226.25K
03:00
USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Mar)
12.5 0.16 8.5 18.1

No major changes in jobless claims
Philly Fed Manufacturing down from last month, but higher than expected
 
@SpikeUM has a different perspective on the tariff situation in the Inflation and economy thread. The chart points out the lack of reciprocity. All anyone has pointed out is that increasing tariffs raises costs here, but the other side of the equation has been overlooked. If tariffs on American goods in country X get lowered due to the threat of tariffs on imports of X products, that will increase American exports and help balance trade.

Maybe it's all about leveling the playing field, which will help us in the long run.

 
JD08 said:
@SpikeUM has a different perspective on the tariff situation in the Inflation and economy thread. The chart points out the lack of reciprocity. All anyone has pointed out is that increasing tariffs raises costs here, but the other side of the equation has been overlooked. If tariffs on American goods in country X get lowered due to the threat of tariffs on imports of X products, that will increase American exports and help balance trade.

Maybe it's all about leveling the playing field, which will help us in the long run.

Click to expand...
That was always how they were sold to us. The quote was “Trade wars are easy to win.”
 
mr.h said:
They are saying that tariffs are inflationary and there is uncertainty. They still mentioned 2 rate cuts. If we get stagflation, it’s all on the Trump administration.
QE could be inflationary.
Who knows if Trump will pull back the Tariffs…
Click to expand...

Congrats, you hate Trump.
 
Advertisement
Calinative said:
I imagine Q1 Earning are going to be a **** show. Model Y lines were down across the globe to transition to the update. Production going to take a massive hit. And with all the negative PR currently, Musk will likely go off on the earnings call tbh, and that'll generate even more negative pr.
Just my thought. We'll see though
Click to expand...
The Cybertruck has been a disaster so far, as well. They’re only expected to deliver between 7-8k Cybertrucks in Q1 25’. Even with $7,500 federal credits, free superchargers, and subsidized interest rates they’re having trouble moving them. They’re overpriced and don’t deliver on promised mileage claims.
 
mr.h said:
If we get stagflation, it’s all on the Trump administration.
QE could be inflationary.
Click to expand...

So you mean to tell me QE could be inflationary and caused by the FED but that is all Trump's fault. Do you not see that your hate for Trump misguides your market analysis and likely your investment strategies?
 
DoctorKrazey said:
90’s: I wanted to get your opinion on Rigetti Computing (RGTI) since this seems to be your area of expertise. A buddy of mine is singing their praises, but I’m seeing mixed signals from investors.
Click to expand...

I haven't looked into Rigetti. Tech companies have been talking about quantum computing since the 90s. It is similar to FUSION. We are close but years (likely decades for fusion) away from it taking over FAB chips. There are around 15 players in the space including the NVidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, IBM... I'd spread my investments across all the small ones and assume 1/3 fail, 1/2 get purchased|rolled up by big players, and 1-2 make it to the point where you get a good return. Even the roll-up companies likely get you break even and 1-2 that go 10-20x more than cover the 1/3 failing. Just don't expect that to happen in 2025. I'm in a defensive position as I believe we see a market correction before we start heading north again and have more M2 available for growth.
 
Advertisement
DoctorKrazey said:
The Cybertruck has been a disaster so far, as well. They’re only expected to deliver between 7-8k Cybertrucks in Q1 25’. Even with $7,500 federal credits, free superchargers, and subsidized interest rates they’re having trouble moving them. They’re overpriced and don’t deliver on promised mileage claims.
Click to expand...

They are also FUGLY! Tesla went from (models) S3XY to CyberDUMPTruck. I hope to buy a roadster V2 when it comes out.
 
90scane said:
Congrats, you hate Trump.
Click to expand...

Had a meeting yesterday with someone who wanted to know when Medicare and Social Security would be cut and by how much, and had been told they should move overseas.

The hysteria from the press is part of the issue, but the reality is that as @90scane and others have been pointing out, we were way, way, way, overbought, caused by too much easy money from the Fed and too much spending by the Biden administration. A big downdraft was coming, we just didnt know when, now we do.
 
Advertisement
isabellaparker said:
You're a Trump fan, I take it?
Click to expand...

Not a fan. He is nearly impossible to like as a human. At the same time, I can understand that the FED, Congress, the President, and the market all impact the economy. Blaming the President for everything is a copout. Since this isn't a political board, I'll leave my opinions on his policies and Congress for another thread.
 
DoctorKrazey said:
The Cybertruck has been a disaster so far, as well. They’re only expected to deliver between 7-8k Cybertrucks in Q1 25’. Even with $7,500 federal credits, free superchargers, and subsidized interest rates they’re having trouble moving them. They’re overpriced and don’t deliver on promised mileage claims.
Click to expand...
It's the best selling EV pickup.
 
Advertisement
Back
Top