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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,863K 1,870K 1,859K
08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 232K 232K 228K
As expected
 
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09:45 USD S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.5 49.6
09:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) 53.2 54.3
09:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) 54.0 55.0
As anticipated..volatility before rate decision and NVDA earnings
 
mr.h said:
09:45 USD S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.5 49.6
09:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) 53.2 54.3
09:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) 54.0 55.0
As anticipated..volatility before rate decision and NVDA earnings
Click to expand...
You say .5 rate cut. No signs of recession. Inflation above 2%.

0% will trigger another short term sell off. Good buying opportunity, I say. Within a day or two the market likely recovers.

.25% cut may also trigger a modest sell off. Again short term. Decent buying opportunity. Will bounce back quickly.

.5% cut. Market reacts positively short term. Then sells off because of fears J. Powell either doesn’t know what he’s doing or market sees it as a sign of recession. A wait and see buying opportunity.


You know…I think 0% is quite likely but a .25 cut may be J. Powell testing the waters and he sees how the numbers look in the winter before touching rates again.
 
TheEye said:
You say .5 rate cut. No signs of recession. Inflation above 2%.

0% will trigger another short term sell off. Good buying opportunity, I say. Within a day or two the market likely recovers.

.25% cut may also trigger a modest sell off. Again short term. Decent buying opportunity. Will bounce back quickly.

.5% cut. Market reacts positively short term. Then sells off because of fears J. Powell either doesn’t know what he’s doing or market sees it as a sign of recession. A wait and see buying opportunity.


You know…I think 0% is quite likely but a .25 cut may be J. Powell testing the waters and he sees how the numbers look in the winter before touching rates again.
Click to expand...
Don't forget that the expectation is a .25% cut. IMO, that makes it a 60/40 between .25% and 0.
 
There are several other factors IMO.

Unemployment
JCB could raise rates while we are dropping
Treasury balance sheet... does the government shut down in election year?
Do any more banks failure?
Do any large companies go under?
 
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Powell-
number 1 concern is labor market (employment)
Price stability
Pandemic concerns fading
It’s time for policy to adjust
Timing of rate cuts depend on data
Less upside risks to inflation
“My confidence has grown”
Labor mkt. has cooled..we will do everything necessary
Happy Drag Race GIF by RuPaul's Drag Race
 
90scane said:

For those DJT holders. IMO, you may want to sell some to take profits. I can’t imaging him not selling someone which could really cause a sell off. Does the company have money for buy backs?
Click to expand...
This guy hates his supporters. He’s gonna sell immediately. (Sarcasm).





I strongly doubt he’s going to backstab his supporters before November.

Now Patrick Orlando and company im not 100% they won’t sell. But Im happy to keep adding there if we get sub20. No news outlet is going to get me to sell.

IMO a comment/move like this will skyrocket the stock.



IMG_7914.webp
 
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I still expect 3 rate cuts this year. The Fed has to save their bullets in case of a larger than expected slowdown.
USA Today..“Fed rate cuts would lower borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards and other consumer and business loans while likely juicing the stock market”
Just reminding everyone that the surge in interest rates came in response to what the covid devastation did to our economy.
 
NVDA earnings on the 28th…could be bigger than economic indicators…
I’ll be interested in how Salesforce does..dropped 20% last earnings
GDP and Jobless claims on the 29th..
 
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