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TheEye said:
I would love to see a 0.0 increase by the Fed at the next meeting.
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From the WSJ today, first silver lining in a while:

Labor market conditions certainly aren't terrible, but signs of weakening just keep coming.

On Thursday, the Labor Department said filings for unemployment benefits were higher than previously thought in recent weeks. Initial jobless claims reached nearly 250,000 a week in mid-March, roughly 50,000 higher than previously reported. The revisions could indicate that the layoffs that hit tech, finance and other sectors in recent months are starting to be reflected in jobless claims numbers. Investors will get another peek at labor market health on Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release March readings for nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate.
 
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SpikeUM said:
From the WSJ today, first silver lining in a while:

Labor market conditions certainly aren't terrible, but signs of weakening just keep coming.

On Thursday, the Labor Department said filings for unemployment benefits were higher than previously thought in recent weeks. Initial jobless claims reached nearly 250,000 a week in mid-March, roughly 50,000 higher than previously reported. The revisions could indicate that the layoffs that hit tech, finance and other sectors in recent months are starting to be reflected in jobless claims numbers. Investors will get another peek at labor market health on Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release March readings for nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate.
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Today Disney announced it would begin selling annual passes again. Universal just recently announced a 3 for 1 deal for day passes. The significane is these used to be common pre pandemic and unheard of post reopening. Meaning, the demand has finally begun to wane. Theme parks will finally start reducing prices through sales and special deals. We may even see a step up in customer service and entertainment as smaller crowds means the parks will need to get competitive for customers again. Disney also announced that it intends to reinvest an average of $1.8B annually for the next decade where it had been cutting costs for the previous decade.
 
TheEye said:
Today Disney announced it would begin selling annual passes again. Universal just recently announced a 3 for 1 deal for day passes. The significane is these used to be common pre pandemic and unheard of post reopening. Meaning, the demand has finally begun to wane. Theme parks will finally start reducing prices through sales and special deals. We may even see a step up in customer service and entertainment as smaller crowds means the parks will need to get competitive for customers again. Disney also announced that it intends to reinvest an average of $1.8B annually for the next decade where it had been cutting costs for the previous decade.
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Disney sucks. It is an overrated experience.
 
07:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Mar)0.3% 00.3%0.2%

07:30
USDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Mar)4.2%-4.3%4.6%
07:30USDAverage Weekly Hours(Mar)34.4-0.5234.534.5
07:30USDLabor Force Participation Rate(Mar)62.6% 3.1662.4%62.5%
07:30USDNonfarm Payrolls(Mar)236K-0.04240K326K
07:30USDU6 Underemployment Rate(Mar)6.7% 06.7%6.8%
07:30USDUnemployment Rate(Mar)3.5% -0.633.6%3.6%

Slowdown, as expected, but still strong…..Goldilocks?????
 
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TheEye said:
Today Disney announced it would begin selling annual passes again. Universal just recently announced a 3 for 1 deal for day passes. The significane is these used to be common pre pandemic and unheard of post reopening. Meaning, the demand has finally begun to wane. Theme parks will finally start reducing prices through sales and special deals. We may even see a step up in customer service and entertainment as smaller crowds means the parks will need to get competitive for customers again. Disney also announced that it intends to reinvest an average of $1.8B annually for the next decade where it had been cutting costs for the previous decade.
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Meanwhile, my kid went to Epcot on a band trip the other day. They couldn't get on Guardians of the Galaxy because you needed to join the virtual queue at exactly 7 am. They waited over an hour for Ratatouille and were told to leave as the ride was broken. At least they were given fast passes as a consolation, but they had to leave the park before they could use them.

The consensus was they'd rather do Universal next time. It's sad to see how far the park experience has fallen.
 
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JD08 said:
Meanwhile, my kid went to Epcot on a band trip the other day. They couldn't get on Guardians of the Galaxy because you needed to join the virtual queue at exactly 7 am. They waited over an hour for Ratatouille and were told to leave as the ride was broken. At least they were given fast passes as a consolation, but they had to leave the park before they could use them.

The consensus was they'd rather do Universal next time. It's sad to see how far the park experience has fallen.
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I think you and @90scane completely missed the point. Everything you mentioned has to do with an overwhelming amount of demand. It got to the point where Disney stopped offering Annual Passes because the demand was so high. It didn’t matter the experience sucked. There was a long line of people dying to get into the parks.
 
TheEye said:
I think you and @90scane completely missed the point. Everything you mentioned has to do with an overwhelming amount of demand. It got to the point where Disney stopped offering Annual Passes because the demand was so high. It didn’t matter the experience sucked. There was a long line of people dying to get into the parks.
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I got that. I'm just saying that even when the park was full and they weren't letting any more people in, they still managed to keep up their customer service and give an enjoyable experience. Those things have suffered because of the changes in the queueing and complete staff turnover post-covid. Who wants to be on vacation and have to get up by 7 just to have a chance that you'll click quick enough to get on a ride?

When a group of teenagers thinks the park sucks, that's a leading indicator that demand will go down.
 
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JD08 said:
I got that. I'm just saying that even when the park was full and they weren't letting any more people in, they still managed to keep up their customer service and give an enjoyable experience. Those things have suffered because of the changes in the queueing and complete staff turnover post-covid. Who wants to be on vacation and have to get up by 7 just to have a chance that you'll click quick enough to get on a ride?

When a group of teenagers thinks the park sucks, that's a leading indicator that demand will go down.
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Those complaints have been happening for a decade and the response from Disney was to not only cut staff, and reduce training time but also to jack up prices. What happened? Attendance went up. The off season (the empty times) was eliminated and the park was even full on weekdays far removed from holidays. Everything you list is a valid reason to never go back, but the lesson learned from the company was the market could handle more cost cuts and worse experiences. Only now are we seeing a return of annual passes after a 3 year hiatus. Also announcements of an increase in funding for the parks, rather than over-squeezing the cash cow for the rest of the corporation.


Long story short, theme park attendance reducing is a good sign of inflation abating, and less involvement of the Fed for the second half of the year.
 
mr.h said:
07:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Mar)0.3% 00.3%0.2%

07:30
USDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Mar)4.2%-4.3%4.6%
07:30USDAverage Weekly Hours(Mar)34.4-0.5234.534.5
07:30USDLabor Force Participation Rate(Mar)62.6% 3.1662.4%62.5%
07:30USDNonfarm Payrolls(Mar)236K-0.04240K326K
07:30USDU6 Underemployment Rate(Mar)6.7% 06.7%6.8%
07:30USDUnemployment Rate(Mar)3.5% -0.633.6%3.6%

Slowdown, as expected, but still strong…..Goldilocks?????
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Where does he want unemployment? 10%
 
From ML today, Best plays for start of recession:

• Long T-bills…cash outperforms until Fed cuts aggressively & EPS estimates trough,
• Long yield curve steepeners…in anticipation of late ’23 Fed response to higher unemployment,
• Long gold…best US dollar debasement play,
• Short over-owned assets vulnerable to deleveraging/revenue cuts…IG/HY bonds, US tech, EU luxury, industrial/defense stocks, US private equity

• And prepare shopping list…once labor market indicates recession begins, execute on buy list of distressed cyclicals in banks, REITs, small caps, commodities.
 
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TheEye said:
I think you and @90scane completely missed the point. Everything you mentioned has to do with an overwhelming amount of demand. It got to the point where Disney stopped offering Annual Passes because the demand was so high. It didn’t matter the experience sucked. There was a long line of people dying to get into the parks.
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I was just stating my opinion on the company.

That said, I plan to buy an Airbnb in the Orlando area knowing full and well grandkids (when/if they come) will want to go to Universal, Disney, Legoland…
 
90scane said:
I was just stating my opinion on the company.

That said, I plan to buy an Airbnb in the Orlando area knowing full and well grandkids (when/if they come) will want to go to Universal, Disney, Legoland…
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I agree with your opinion. It just wasn’t my point.
 
90scane said:
I was just stating my opinion on the company.

That said, I plan to buy an Airbnb in the Orlando area knowing full and well grandkids (when/if they come) will want to go to Universal, Disney, Legoland…
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Nintendo world as well(part of universal’s plans in 2024/25)

$NTDOF is one of my favorite bigger postiions. Also gives about 3-4% dividend.
Looks like their movie was a hit this weekend.
New Zelda game next month.
New system sometime in the next couple years.
 
Cmuri said:
Nintendo world as well(part of universal’s plans in 2024/25)

$NTDOF is one of my favorite bigger postiions. Also gives about 3-4% dividend.
Looks like their movie was a hit this weekend.
New Zelda game next month.
New system sometime in the next couple years.
Click to expand...
Universal is also owned by CMCST which pays about 3% div. Unlike Disney that removed its div during the pandemic and no one knows how much it will be when they bring it back.
 
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