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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

SpikeUM said:
Think bigger.....less employed people that need offices, cars, pay taxes, etc.
Click to expand...
Pushes down wage inflation. Pushes down commercial property prices. Yet another reason for the Fed to take a long breather.
 

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Big day…
Jobless claims and PPI.
I believe that PPI is forward looking while CPI is backwards looking. I believe we will see a significant drop.
 
07:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Mar 31)1.81M-0.071.814M1.823M

07:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Apr 7)239K0.45232K228K
07:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Apr 7)240K--237.75K
07:30USDProducer Price Index (MoM)(Mar)-0.5% -1.630%0%
07:30USDProducer Price Index (YoY)(Mar)2.7% -0.613%4.6%
07:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Mar)-0.1% -1.190.2%0.2%
07:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Mar)3.4% 03.4%4.4%

Most PPI numbers lower...Unemployment numbers higher. Inflation numbers are moving in the right direction.
 
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To clarify my comment, inflation is lower but still running hot, and now oil and other commodities are back up. This rally is predicated on the Fed pausing (plausible) and then cutting later in the year (possible but not probable as of today). Fed members are continually saying they dont see cuts this year, and if they are forced to cut, that means the economy tanked (hard landing).

Also, government policy continues to be highly inflationary.
 

US inflation cools — smartphones FTW​

Good news for American households as US inflation fell to its lowest level in nearly two years in March. Prices grew at an annual clip of 5%, according to the latest figures released Wednesday. That’s down from 6% in February, marking the ninth consecutive month of falling inflation.

The highlights? Well, if you want to do some shopping in the US, now’s the time to cop a new smartphone, which will cost you 24% less than a year ago. And that summer road trip is on – gas prices are down more than 17%. At the same time, we remain “yolked,” as it were, to the Great Egg Crisis of 2023 — prices are up more than 30% despite easing a bit since February.

More broadly, that headline figure of 5% is still more than twice the pre-pandemic norm, and core inflation — which excludes volatile prices for fuel and food — is running at a toasty 5.6%.

That’ll keep the US Fed in the hot seat as it meets again in early May. Will they raise interest rates once more in a bid to finish off inflation? Or will they stand pat, worried about tipping the economy into a recession?
 
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07:30USDExport Price Index (MoM)(Mar)-0.3% -0.19-0.1%0.4%

07:30USDExport Price Index (YoY)(Mar)-4.8% --4.2%-0.8%
07:30USDImport Price Index (MoM)(Mar)-0.6% -1.06-0.1%-0.2%
07:30USDImport Price Index (YoY)(Mar)-4.6% -0.74-3.7%-1.1%
07:30USDRetail Sales (MoM)(Mar)-1% -1.00-0.4%-0.2%
07:30USDRetail Sales Control Group(Mar)-0.3% -0.980.6%0.5%
07:30











USD











Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Mar)











-0.8%












-0.61












-0.3%












0%












 
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TheEye said:
Pushes down wage inflation. Pushes down commercial property prices. Yet another reason for the Fed to take a long breather.
Click to expand...

Two things: First, our wage inflation is primarily blue collar, white collar folks are being laid off left and right, especially by tech firms.

Second, having empty buildings that cause banks to write off huge amounts is not good for the economy or the stock market, its actually a worst case scenario.
 
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