forums

Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

$160B was provided to banks via the discount window and BFTP since March 8. $110B of which was for First Citizen to buy SVB.

$300B was provided via FHLB in one week which is a massive amount! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...one-week-as-banks-bolster-liquidity#xj4y7vzkg

In 2021, every quarter was below $400B. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL403069330Q

Since Insurance companies also hold MBS assets, I would assume a number of them have similar issues as banks that are holding MTM losses caused by the rapid increase in rates. Could we be heading towards a massive recession with insurance company, bank failures, and a massive credit crunch? Sure seems likely.
 

Advertisement
mr.h said:
That would blow up the economy and send us into a recession, that would not react to the rate cuts, the way the fed would want It to, in their made up time frame. So now we would have a new catastrophe.
The Fed has already hurt the economy with their excesses. We need a scalpel, not a chainsaw.
Imo, we are in pause territory.
Click to expand...

And you still think we aren't going to blow up the economy with .25? We are way past a soft or no landing IMO.

My safe assumption: many banks will fail beyond the 3 so far. Some insurance companies will fail. Unemployment will jump by 3% (not factoring in the millions who don't get counted). The recession is official at some point in 2023. The FED will be forced to pivot BUT will try to keep rates above 2%. Spreads from banks will remain above 2% due to the new risks of banking. Inflation is going to remain higher than 2%. As rates drop, the economy warms up again along with inflation and the next cycle will be much shorter.
 
90scane said:
And you still think we aren't going to blow up the economy with .25? We are way past a soft or no landing IMO.

My safe assumption: many banks will fail beyond the 3 so far. Some insurance companies will fail. Unemployment will jump by 3% (not factoring in the millions who don't get counted). The recession is official at some point in 2023. The FED will be forced to pivot BUT will try to keep rates above 2%. Spreads from banks will remain above 2% due to the new risks of banking. Inflation is going to remain higher than 2%. As rates drop, the economy warms up again along with inflation and the next cycle will be much shorter.
Click to expand...
Once the economy is dropping like a rock, there will not be a short cycle..It's easier to bring the market down then up..
Pause. jmo
 
mr.h said:
Once the economy is dropping like a rock, there will not be a short cycle..It's easier to bring the market down then up..
Pause. jmo
Click to expand...
It isn’t about the market. It is about the economy.

The speed of the rebound is likely to be in direct correlation to the speed of the rate cuts. See March 2020.
 
Advertisement
Canedog said:
Vanguard or Fidelity money market funds are paying around 4.75% with liquidity. The interest rate fluctuates. 12 to 18 month treasuries pay the about the same but the principal balance will fluctuate depending on interest rate fluctuations. Principal balances on short term bonds don’t fluctuate as much as longer term bonds.

If you hold till maturity you get all your principal and interest.
Click to expand...
I’m using CDs and finding 5% or better on one month to one year.
 
CNBC…Tech surge-Nasdaq 100 up 20%. Best since 4th quarter since Q-2 2020.
Personal consumption 4.4 from 4.3
GNP -2.6 from 2.6
Jobless claims 196,000 from 191,000

USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q4)3.7% 03.7%3.7%

VIX @19
CPI tomorrow.
 
Last edited:
Advertisement
90scane said:
It isn’t about the market. It is about the economy.

The speed of the rebound is likely to be in direct correlation to the speed of the rate cuts. See March 2020.
Click to expand...
Then speed of rate cuts could speed up inflation again…I was talking about the economy and the market.
 
90scane said:
Imagine if they hadn't raised rates by 5%! We still have 5% inflation now so having 2-3% rates would likely mean 8-10% inflation, no?
Click to expand...
Yes, It seemed likely that supply lines were opening, but it would have taken a long time without the interest rate hikes, and now we are on a tipping point. Throw in the banks and we could have a big recession unless he takes the foot of pedal.
 
CPE:
12:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Feb) 0.3%-0.980.4%0.5%
12:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Feb) 4.6%-0.564.7%4.7%
12:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Feb) 0.3%0.790.2%0.6%
12:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Feb) 5%-0.875.3%5.3%
12:30USDPersonal Income (MoM)(Feb) 0.3%0.490.2%0.6%
12:30USDPersonal Spending(Feb) 0.2%-0.440.3%2%
Mostly down..
 
Advertisement
USDMichigan Consumer Sentiment Index(Mar) 62-0.4863.263.4
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(Mar) 2.9% --2.8%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index(Mar) 43.80.0843.443.6
 
Advertisement
CA08E692-1F43-4BB7-A66A-677A28F1D417.jpeg
 
Advertisement
Back
Top