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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

90scane said:
The only way? As if tightening credit has no impact? What happens when defaults start piling up? What about the inverted curve?
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That’s a great reason not to raise rates…
25 with a pause coming or cut coming will still propel the markets.
Powell saying the bank situation is being handled and he will continue raising, is our worse case scenario.
 

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mr.h said:
That’s a great reason not to raise rates…
25 with a pause coming or cut coming will still propel the markets.
Powell saying the bank situation is being handled and he will continue raising, is our worse case scenario.
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You can't hope/pray for your outcome. Banks are tightening credit standards across the board (Large to small commercial and individuals). The FED is already doing QE to slow down the tightening to keep banks from failing BUT the FED wants the markets to cool off to reduce inflation. We aren't talking about deflation but simply cooling off the market enough to limit the ongoing inflation. Thus, he is going to raise rates and do back-door QE for the banks.
 
90scane said:
You can't hope/pray for your outcome. Banks are tightening credit standards across the board (Large to small commercial and individuals). The FED is already doing QE to slow down the tightening to keep banks from failing BUT the FED wants the markets to cool off to reduce inflation. We aren't talking about deflation but simply cooling off the market enough to limit the ongoing inflation. Thus, he is going to raise rates and do back-door QE for the banks.
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You may be right, but nobody is talking run away inflation. Why not pause and let supply and demand do its thing.
Supply chains are opening. Drug costs for seniors are going down, we have a surplus of oil, food prices have peaked. Banks tightening credit standards is good. Rate increases will not cool off the economy, but will be recessionary, which is worse. We have never raised rates this high in such a short time. If Powell does what you say, then he’s going to agitate the banking crisis, slow the economy and we will fall into a deeper recession.
 
mr.h said:
You may be right, but nobody is talking run away inflation. Why not pause and let supply and demand do its thing.
Supply chains are opening. Drug costs for seniors are going down, we have a surplus of oil, food prices have peaked. Banks tightening credit standards is good. Rate increases will not cool off the economy, but will be recessionary, which is worse. We have never raised rates this high in such a short time. If Powell does what you say, then he’s going to agitate the banking crisis, slow the economy and we will fall into a deeper recession.
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The FED raising rates will likely cause a faster pivot/drop in rates for a faster recovery to easy money and could also crack inflation. If he holds rates and talks hawkish along with their banking QE, it could extend the higher for longer which also prolongs the recession all with high inflation.

By the way, markets aren't a forward-looking indicator. If you want forward-looking indicators, you need to look at permits for new homes vs homes being sold (market). You can look consumer CC debt: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RCCCBBALTOT. Tightening standards for commercial loans: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM

Yes, markets are forward-looking but it isn't an indicator in and of itself. It is a machine, not an indicator.
 
90scane said:
The FED raising rates will likely cause a faster pivot/drop in rates for a faster recovery to easy money and could also crack inflation. If he holds rates and talks hawkish along with their banking QE, it could extend the higher for longer which also prolongs the recession all with high inflation.

By the way, markets aren't a forward-looking indicator. If you want forward-looking indicators, you need to look at permits for new homes vs homes being sold (market). You can look consumer CC debt: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RCCCBBALTOT. Tightening standards for commercial loans: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM

Yes, markets are forward-looking but it isn't an indicator in and of itself. It is a machine, not an indicator.
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At the very least, the market is a sign of future optimism or pessimism, and CPI is definitely backwards-looking. We are not going to “crack inflation” with .25 hikes. All it’s going to do is heighten pessimism and hurt many sectors of the economy. If you’re saying we need to get to 2% inflation before pausing and/cutting rates, then you are willing to crush the economy, which will take a long time to dig out of. A very long time.
No disrespect intended. Just my point of view.
 
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mr.h said:
hurt many sectors of the economy
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Hurting many sectors means inflation coming down.

2% is a JOKE! They already did 300B of QE. No matter what, **** is going down. They can do .25 and **** gets worse faster. They can do nothing and markets could see it as a major issue that hasn't been made public causing a bank run. They could hold rates higher for longer after .25 or drop sooner. If they went to 0 by year-end, what does that say about our own currency and the overall health of the markets? The FED has to break the market of easy money.

I'll remind you of a famous quote:
 
.25 rate hike with one more possible. Said economy is robust, job gains…
unfortunately Powell is going to speak…ugh.
 
mr.h said:
.25 rate hike with one more possible. Said economy is robust, job gains…
unfortunately Powell is going to speak…ugh.
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Get ready for at least one more hike unless a bank run happens. If a run happens, more QE to prop up the banks.
 
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SpikeUM said:
I couldnt understand why the market initially rallied, this makes more sense to me.
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It initially rallied because they were expecting a .25 raise, but after Powell took questions and sounded like a drunken sailor, the uncertainty factor took over.
 
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SEC also sent a Wells notice to Coinbase.

www.barrons.com

SEC Charges Celebrities in Crypto Scheme

The SEC charged crypto asset entrepreneur Justin Sun and his companies for paying eight celebrities to tout cryptos without telling their fans and followers that they were being paid to do so or how much.
www.barrons.com www.barrons.com
 
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USDInitial Jobless Claims(Mar 17) 191K-1.00201K192K

USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Mar 10) 1.694M-0.191.701M1.68M
Jobless claims lower..
 
THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN SAID YESTERDAY!!!!?

Thursday, March 23, 2023
Yahoo Finance Ap
Yahoo finance.
An eventful day for the Federal Reserve left investors with a clear message — our work is nearly done.

Alongside the central bank's announcement it had raised the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, the Fed released updated economic projections that showed its current interest rate hiking cycle has nearly come to an end.

Interest rates now stand in a range of 4.75%-5%. The Fed's "dot plot," which outlines interest rate expectations from Fed officials, suggested only one more 0.25% rate hike is likely coming this year.

And that would conclude one of the more consequential periods in Fed history — the consequences of which are just beginning to be fully realized.
 
Rates @5%, QT around 85B/month, banks tightening credit standards.
offset by
BOJ liquidity, China reopening, Europe importing US Natural Gas, low unemployment, low home supply, Treasury willing to backstop every deposit(hahaha)
I forgot the BTFP for $300B to date and likely another $450B pending.
 
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I mentioned earlier in the thread that CS was not the only mega bank zombie, and specifically included DB in that post. Because of national pride and internal politics, Switzerland never cleaned up CS, and Germany DB.

www.cnbc.com

Deutsche Bank shares slide 9% after sudden spike in the cost of insuring against its default

Deutsche Bank shares fell 9% in early trade on Friday after a spike in credit default swaps on Thursday night, as concerns about the stability of Europe's banks persisted.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
I’m seeing tech start ups pile their cash into Bitcoin. This is why it has a bit of a bull run of late. Crazy to think Bitcoin is less risky than Janet providing a backstop.
 
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