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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

wspcane said:
Part of my focus on the emergency fund piece is this is not money that I would put in the market anyways, so the liquidity aspect is not too much of a factor. As is, it has been sitting in my bank's checking/savings accounts letting them collect interest on it instead of me.
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if you're doing that you should look at the brokered CDs. they're yielding over 5% on anything 6months+ & short term you can get 3 month CD for 4.8%. as rates keep going up, so will those CDs
 
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JD08 said:
Where does your cash get a 5% return?
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My cash isn't returning anything. My point was 5% short-term bond returns are likely to jump to 10% in 1-2 months. Pardon the confusion.

I believe there are a few banks providing 4% on savings accounts but as SpikeUM pointed out, keeping anything more than 250k in a bank is not smart. Heck, I only keep around 1 month of rent in 4 different bank accounts and hope to spread that to 6 soon. In short, the volatility in the market could cause some banks to fail in the coming year(s). I'd keep your eyes on any that heavy in commercial real estate.
 
90scane said:
My cash isn't returning anything. My point was 5% short-term bond returns are likely to jump to 10% in 1-2 months. Pardon the confusion.

I believe there are a few banks provide 4% on savings accounts but as SpikeUM pointed out, keeping anything more than 250k in a bank is not smart. Heck, I only keep around 1 month of rent in 4 different bank accounts and hope to spread that to 6 soon. In short, the volatility in the market could cause some banks to fail in the coming year(s). I'd keep your eyes on any that over heavy in commercial real estate.
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Whew! I was wondering if my T-bill shuffle game was overly weak.
 
90scane said:
My cash isn't returning anything. My point was 5% short-term bond returns are likely to jump to 10% in 1-2 months. Pardon the confusion.

I believe there are a few banks providing 4% on savings accounts but as SpikeUM pointed out, keeping anything more than 250k in a bank is not smart. Heck, I only keep around 1 month of rent in 4 different bank accounts and hope to spread that to 6 soon. In short, the volatility in the market could cause some banks to fail in the coming year(s). I'd keep your eyes on any that heavy in commercial real estate.
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I have a bank account with a minimum balance for zelle/venmo (I keep it at $5k or less), the rest is in treasuries and brokerage money market sweeps, which are now paying 4.25% to 4.60% and going up.
 
Powell talking on Capitol Hill…..tighten your sphincters.
So far, so good. He’s holding his own.
 
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90scane said:
My cash isn't returning anything. My point was 5% short-term bond returns are likely to jump to 10% in 1-2 months. Pardon the confusion.

I believe there are a few banks providing 4% on savings accounts but as SpikeUM pointed out, keeping anything more than 250k in a bank is not smart. Heck, I only keep around 1 month of rent in 4 different bank accounts and hope to spread that to 6 soon. In short, the volatility in the market could cause some banks to fail in the coming year(s). I'd keep your eyes on any that heavy in commercial real estate.
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Within 2 months you think 6 month bonds will double? Hmmm… I see them going up from here but nowhere near that fast.
 
MDOcane said:
if you're doing that you should look at the brokered CDs. they're yielding over 5% on anything 6months+ & short term you can get 3 month CD for 4.8%. as rates keep going up, so will those CDs
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You can sometimes get a deal with brokered CD's, but in general, its better to stay with Treasuries due to liquidity (always) and rate (usually):

1678296639805.png
 
TheEye said:
Within 2 months you think 6 month bonds will double? Hmmm… I see them going up from here but nowhere near that fast.
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Combination of two things:
1. The market hasn't priced in a recession and the FED is likely hiking to 5.5-6% by June right when we see a cooling off.

2. April hits and the Treasury does everything it can to prevent the US Government from shutting down which could cause the Bond market to "crack"

The Bond market does $600B/yr of trading so higher rates are needed to bring more buyers to a market with too many sellers. What do you do when you need to sell something and there aren't enough buyers? You increase the value to the buyers. In this case, rates will increase.
 
90scane said:
Combination of two things:
1. The market hasn't priced in a recession and the FED is likely hiking to 5.5-6% by June right when we see a cooling off.

2. April hits and the Treasury does everything it can to prevent the US Government from shutting down which could cause the Bond market to "crack"

The Bond market does $600B/yr of trading so higher rates are needed to bring more buyers to a market with too many sellers. What do you do when you need to sell something and there aren't enough buyers? You increase the value to the buyers. In this case, rates will increase.
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I’ll believe 10% yields when I see them. Not sure if we even see them within the calendar year let alone by May.
 
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TheEye said:
I’ll believe 10% yields when I see them. Not sure if we even see them within the calendar year let alone by May.
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I would lock in these rates and ladder them up to 10 years. Interest rates might go up a little more, but we won’t see these numbers by the end of 2023. Otherwise we’ll be in a housing recession.
Powell isn't talking end of the world garbage. He’s picking and choosing his words, very carefully.
 
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Jobless claims higher than past performances and consensus going over 200,000.
payrolls tomorrow.. I think last months 500,000 was a anomaly.
 
For those of you investing in China......

China is taking stakes in private companies to exert control.​

The government stakes, colloquially known as golden shares, are sometimes very small, but they tend to give the state board seats, voting power and sway over business decisions. For the companies, there is little choice: Selling such a stake to a government entity that seeks one is crucial for staying in business. For the state, the stakes mean more direct involvement in some of China’s most high-profile companies—digital cornerstones of Chinese life and, in some cases, darlings of global investors.
 
SpikeUM said:
For those of you investing in China......

China is taking stakes in private companies to exert control.​

The government stakes, colloquially known as golden shares, are sometimes very small, but they tend to give the state board seats, voting power and sway over business decisions. For the companies, there is little choice: Selling such a stake to a government entity that seeks one is crucial for staying in business. For the state, the stakes mean more direct involvement in some of China’s most high-profile companies—digital cornerstones of Chinese life and, in some cases, darlings of global investors.
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Nothing is safe in China..A lot of companies moving to Vietnam and India. Vietnam is still a communist authoritarian country, but India is a better fit and a needed ally against China. They have been known to steal and copy our intellectual property too, but neither are a threat militarily.
we need to ban tictok like we did with Huawei.
 
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The more the idiots in the government bash oil companies, the less they will invest for the future, keeping oil prices high. Oil companies are still dirt cheap, but have ridiculous volatility.

www.wsj.com

Big Oil Gushes Cash Because It Doesn’t Know Where to Invest

At an annual gathering in Houston, energy companies talked up an “orderly” transition. But they also seem reluctant to drill more.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
SpikeUM said:
The more the idiots in the government bash oil companies, the less they will invest for the future, keeping oil prices high. Oil companies are still dirt cheap, but have ridiculous volatility.

www.wsj.com

Big Oil Gushes Cash Because It Doesn’t Know Where to Invest

At an annual gathering in Houston, energy companies talked up an “orderly” transition. But they also seem reluctant to drill more.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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Should probably put a few chargers in their lot.
 
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08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Feb)0.2% -0.740.3%0.3%

08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Feb)4.6% -0.284.7%4.4%
08:30USDAverage Weekly Hours(Feb)34.5-0.5434.634.6
08:30USDLabor Force Participation Rate(Feb)62.5% 1.9662.3%62.4%
08:30USDNonfarm Payrolls(Feb)311K0.89205K504K
08:30USDU6 Underemployment Rate(Feb)6.8% 1.796.5%6.6%
08:30USDUnemployment Rate(Feb)3.6% 1.583.4%3.4%

Payrolls down from last month, but higher than expected
Unemployment rate up
Labor force participation up a fraction..
Ave. hourly earnings down.
numbers seem good and more normal and not as inflationary...jmo
Rate hike 25 or 50?????
 
mr.h said:
08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Feb)0.2% -0.740.3%0.3%

08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Feb)4.6% -0.284.7%4.4%
08:30USDAverage Weekly Hours(Feb)34.5-0.5434.634.6
08:30USDLabor Force Participation Rate(Feb)62.5% 1.9662.3%62.4%
08:30USDNonfarm Payrolls(Feb)311K0.89205K504K
08:30USDU6 Underemployment Rate(Feb)6.8% 1.796.5%6.6%
08:30USDUnemployment Rate(Feb)3.6% 1.583.4%3.4%

Payrolls down from last month, but higher than expected
Unemployment rate up
Labor force participation up a fraction..
Ave. hourly earnings down.
numbers seem good and more normal and not as inflationary...jmo
Rate hike 25 or 50?????
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I think 50 bp's was a done deal, UNTIL the SVB debacle.....best guess is 25 now.......

Many financial crises start as credit events....think of Long Term Capital, the Asian Flu, the Great Recession, etc. SVB could be an isolated event.....or the beginnings of a new credit crisis.
 
FDIC shut it down. YIKES! 18th largest bank in the country is closed in under 48hrs. $212B in assets. #42 Credit Suisse is also under a ton of pressure and nearing failure with $80B in assets.
 
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