Then he said rate hikes will continue on... and the market dropped 95 (1/3 of the jump from October). The market will likely keep going down but I'm not sure we will see a complete tank of 80-90% simply because the USD is so strong compared to other currencies.
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mr.h
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But he did say that lower rates could be on the table.
But those would only happen after multiple months of lower inflation numbers.
The stock market is holding up pretty well all things considered. I don’t see that continuing for too much longer. We may not see unemployment jump due to the demographics having to replace retiring boomers, early retirements, and on-shoring supply chains. That leaves us waiting for treasuries to break or inflation to drop.
mr.h
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When the mkt is negative I go the other way considering our economy. We are not too far to where the Feds want to go with rates...jmo
MKT. Watch
Slower, but higher rates and no pivot this side of Christmas. That was the message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after the central bank’s fourth-straight jumbo hike. Bruised investors look ready to keep selling stocks on Thursday as yields tear higher.
Not everyone agrees with Powell. “The Fed is making a huge policy error, and they will manage to break something. The rate hikes are sufficient. Any more is wrong,” says the president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., Yves Lamoureux.
The forecaster also provides our call of the day, which will cheer the bulls as he sees up years in the medium- to long-term for stocks, even if Powell threw a “short-term wrench in the engine.”
This column last spoke to Lamoureux in March, when declared the end of a trilogy of rolling bear markets that he accurately predicted starting with 2020 pandemic lows. In March, he forecast a new bull market stretching to 2025, but sees that now stretching to 2026 due to the “damage” that’s been done.
And while bull-market conditions don’t seem great now, “they will as we’re going higher and stocks are on their way up,” he told MarketWatch in a recent interview.
MKT. Watch
Slower, but higher rates and no pivot this side of Christmas. That was the message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after the central bank’s fourth-straight jumbo hike. Bruised investors look ready to keep selling stocks on Thursday as yields tear higher.
Not everyone agrees with Powell. “The Fed is making a huge policy error, and they will manage to break something. The rate hikes are sufficient. Any more is wrong,” says the president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., Yves Lamoureux.
The forecaster also provides our call of the day, which will cheer the bulls as he sees up years in the medium- to long-term for stocks, even if Powell threw a “short-term wrench in the engine.”
This column last spoke to Lamoureux in March, when declared the end of a trilogy of rolling bear markets that he accurately predicted starting with 2020 pandemic lows. In March, he forecast a new bull market stretching to 2025, but sees that now stretching to 2026 due to the “damage” that’s been done.
And while bull-market conditions don’t seem great now, “they will as we’re going higher and stocks are on their way up,” he told MarketWatch in a recent interview.
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The FED wants to go high enough to see inflation decline for multiple months before they slow the hikes. I believe they will keep raising rates and if November Core doesn't drop they could do another .75 in December. The market has priced in .5-1 of hikes. If they do a .75 in December, it will be a massive sign to the market that the FED is going to keep crushing demand until inflation is under control.
The two non-inflation factors are: treasuries and unemployment!
Treasuries will break before inflation IMO due to all of the softness in the INT markets. Unemployment isn't as likely to fly higher as of now for the factors stated above.
At this point, we are all looking for the bottom and I'm holding cash (my defensive position) until the FED truly pivots (stops raising rates). Sure I could be behind the curve but I also have enough risk in other investments that I don't need to put my cash at risk as well.
Cmuri
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mr.h
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I’m in, because at some point we’re going to pop. there are a lot of oversold stocks.
At some point, the broader market will go up. Thus, you will make profits if you stay in long enough.
Buying tech stocks right now isn't likely to get you to that fast profit. The big tech companies are likely to see some serious drops in value as customers look for better value with other providers be it ads, cloud services, fintech... IF they have a large enough drop in earnings, we could see layoffs and stock repurchases stop leading to big down turns.
I personally think most of the large cap tech stocks will see another 10-25% drop depending on company. Google is down 45% and likely has more runway lower. Not only that but it will take a while to get back to 152 simply because inflation isn't going away and the FED isn't likely to pivot anytime soon.
I actually see the FED being even more hawkish now than over the last 3-6 months.
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mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
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I hope not, but we have to see where inflation is at the eoy.
you may very well be right, but Powell is getting a lot of flack about the possibility of a deep recession.
The Fed's main task is to keep inflation under control, whether or not there is a recession is only secondary.
Do you guys truly know the business that Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Google operate? Do you dig into their actual balance sheets and other financial statements? OR are you simply buying based on a % drop since their highs and hoping they don't drop too much more?
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Said another way, what has worked for the last 20 years of a zero rate/inflation environment is most likely not going to work in a high interest rate/inflationary environment.
Amazon pauses hiring for corporate workforce
Amazon is pausing hiring for roles in its corporate workforce, the company announced in a memo to staff Thursday.
More signs that large-cap tech companies know pain is coming. There are a number of factors at play that will cool even the large-cap tech companies. The highs of 2021 won't be seen for many years. Likely 5 years for most IF we get lucky and more likely 10 years for some. Sure there will be a couple outliers that bounce back in 2024/2025 with strong earnings BUT the majority will suffer and the market won't push PE ratios to the moon like they did in 2021. If you want to risk, I'd go with well-performing (balance sheet/ PE ratio) small-cap tech companies that have upside growth in price.Amazon pauses hiring for corporate workforce
Amazon is pausing hiring for roles in its corporate workforce, the company announced in a memo to staff Thursday.www.cnbc.com
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Much tougher to get in on unless they are accredited investors.
I’ll admit, I’m not sure when you need to be QP vs Accredited. Clearly, qp covers accredited.
Likely should learn as I’m likely missing opportunities.
Real estate is usually only Accredited, non real estate are almost always QP.
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