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mr.h said:
Yahoo News- morning brief..

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And Mastercard’s CEO Michel Miebach tells me there is nothing in his business that suggests recession is imminent.

"Currently, based on the data that we have, there is no such indication [of a recession]," Miebach said. "The consumer is resilient, and that resilience will last. We have no indication that there is a near-term recession."

All of this brings me to think that perhaps recession talk is overblown. Maybe consumers will come out and spend, spend, spend this holiday season. Maybe investors need to better embrace the solid data they are getting hit over the head with today instead of eyeing a potential future of doom and gloom.

Keep in mind, all of these rosy feels could change on a dime when we get earnings from Walmart, Target, and other retailers in a few days. But for now, perhaps embrace the positive vibes.
Click to expand...

Thats actually bad news, it means the Fed has to keep raising, increasing the chances of a crisis.
 
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mr.h said:
Yahoo News- morning brief..

More
And Mastercard’s CEO Michel Miebach tells me there is nothing in his business that suggests recession is imminent.

"Currently, based on the data that we have, there is no such indication [of a recession]," Miebach said. "The consumer is resilient, and that resilience will last. We have no indication that there is a near-term recession."

All of this brings me to think that perhaps recession talk is overblown. Maybe consumers will come out and spend, spend, spend this holiday season. Maybe investors need to better embrace the solid data they are getting hit over the head with today instead of eyeing a potential future of doom and gloom.

Keep in mind, all of these rosy feels could change on a dime when we get earnings from Walmart, Target, and other retailers in a few days. But for now, perhaps embrace the positive vibes.
Click to expand...


Rates are going up up up
21% of GDP is finance, insurance, real estate, rental, leasing (likely heading south due to rates)
13% is Professional and business services
12% is USA Government (likely increasing as they keep spending!)
10.7% Manufacturing (likely to grow as we on-shore more but this will be offset by the increased demand for energy)
8.6% Education, Healthcare, social assistance (likely to be flat as Education drops and healthcare increases)
6% is retail (where a ton of that CC spending is found)
4.1% is construction (likely heading south due to rates)
www.statista.com

GDP share by industry U.S. 2021 | Statista

In 2021, the finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing industry contributed the highest amount of value to the GDP of the U.S.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

I'm not at all concerned about the 6% dropping by .1%. The business cycle is pretty much Real Estate and the FED is forcing it down!
 
SpikeUM said:
Thats actually bad news, it means the Fed has to keep raising, increasing the chances of a crisis.
Click to expand...
Let them raise rates in smaller increments. Don’t worry, there will be a rise in unemployment and a drop in GDP, just not as dramatic. All I’m hoping is for a softer landing, which is possible.
 
$DWAC up 60% today. Looks like the orange man is looking to run. Hearing possible announcement tonight or nov 14.
 
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mr.h said:
Yahoo News- morning brief..

More
And Mastercard’s CEO Michel Miebach tells me there is nothing in his business that suggests recession is imminent.

"Currently, based on the data that we have, there is no such indication [of a recession]," Miebach said. "The consumer is resilient, and that resilience will last. We have no indication that there is a near-term recession."

All of this brings me to think that perhaps recession talk is overblown. Maybe consumers will come out and spend, spend, spend this holiday season. Maybe investors need to better embrace the solid data they are getting hit over the head with today instead of eyeing a potential future of doom and gloom.

Keep in mind, all of these rosy feels could change on a dime when we get earnings from Walmart, Target, and other retailers in a few days. But for now, perhaps embrace the positive vibes.
Click to expand...
stocks.apple.com

US Consumer Borrowing Cools as Credit-Card Debt Growth Slows — Bloomberg

US consumer borrowing rose in September by less than expected, reflecting a smaller advance in credit-card debt outstanding.
stocks.apple.com stocks.apple.com

While CC spending is up, the amount of debt increased which means they can’t keep it up.
 
  • Morgan Stanley sees bottom nearing for tech. Risk reward is becoming compelling. Semi secular drivers. Bearish on many of the underlying end markets, Autos and data centers have remained resilient lease. And buy the dip on AAPL as it has supply issues in China due to covid.
 
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Today they report CPI yoy
also look at CPI ex food and energy. I believe that’s where we will see a bigger drop. [maybe]
 
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Inflation has dropped

08:30USDConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Oct) --0.6% 0.4% 08:30USDConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Oct)
7.7% -1.628% 8.2% 08:3
0USDConsumer Price Index Core s.a(Oct) 299.47--298.6608:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Oct) 0.3% -1.250.5% 0.6% 08:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Oct)

6.3% -1.366.5% 6.6% 08:30USDConsumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(
Oct) --298.583296.80808:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Oct 28) 1.493M-1.475M1.487M08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Nov 4) 225K-220K218K08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Nov 4) 218.75K--219K

POP
 
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Bird4um said:
Good call
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Happy Whoop Whoop GIF by Verohallinto

growth and big tech doing very well.
Dollar down… VIX down.
 
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The bigger question: does the market keep going up or are we heading to darker days.

Inflation is down a little but we still have 12-24months before we see the full impact of existing rate hikes and the Fed isn’t likely to pivot over one month.
 
90scane said:
The bigger question: does the market keep going up or are we heading to darker days.

Inflation is down a little but we still have 12-24months before we see the full impact of existing rate hikes and the Fed isn’t likely to pivot over one month.
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Darker days are coming because the Fed is not going to stop tightening for several months. The market is reacting to a likely hike that is less than .75.
 
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90scane said:
The bigger question: does the market keep going up or are we heading to darker days.

Inflation is down a little but we still have 12-24months before we see the full impact of existing rate hikes and the Fed isn’t likely to pivot over one month.
Click to expand...
As long as the fed raises rates at 50 or less. When that happens, expect another pop. [hopefully in December] along with a Christmas rally.
 
Last hour.. let’s see if the gains hold or a quick-sell off for profit

S&P 3929….close 3955
Dow 33596..33712
Naz 11006…11114

we ain’t outta the woods yet, but we are headed in the right direction.
 
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mr.h said:
Last hour.. let’s see if the gains hold or a quick-sell off for profit

S&P 3929….close 3955
Dow 33596..33712
Naz 11006…11114

we ain’t outta the woods yet, but we are headed in the right direction.
Click to expand...
I really hope that we have more good days than bad days ahead.

This is what I'd be watching:

1) Will the FED do YCC
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
7.5T of treasuries held by other CBs.

If that number starts dropping, it means someone (likely the FED) has to buy them thus doing YCC as they try to raise rates while also increasing their balance sheet. It also means the QT has stopped because they are increasing the balance sheet.

2) Inflation - while it is great to look at the numbers going down, you have to question WHY those numbers are going down. We still have not addressed the supply side and have only done temporary demand destruction. As soon as rates go back down, BOOM, the balloon the FED is holding underwater will resurface as the supply side has not been addressed and potentially to new all-time highs.

3) Unemployment- this is when we go from temporary demand destruction to long-term demand destruction as people lose jobs, start asking for government help, and wages level off.

Now maybe just maybe the FED pivots causing the market to BOOM similar to 2021 but at some point, we have to deal with the supply side of inflation. That could simply be letting it run crazy hot at 7-10% for 3-5 years. If that is the case, sure as heck you want to be IN the market to help offset the massive risks on the employment/income side (can your income/wages keep up). The more likely outcome will be many waves of BOOM/BUST OR a big BUST in 2023/2024 due to the FED dropping the HAMMER with not only raising rates but keeping them high for way too long.
 
90scane said:
I really hope that we have more good days than bad days ahead.

This is what I'd be watching:

1) Will the FED do YCC
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
7.5T of treasuries held by other CBs.

If that number starts dropping, it means someone (likely the FED) has to buy them thus doing YCC as they try to raise rates while also increasing their balance sheet. It also means the QT has stopped because they are increasing the balance sheet.

2) Inflation - while it is great to look at the numbers going down, you have to question WHY those numbers are going down. We still have not addressed the supply side and have only done temporary demand destruction. As soon as rates go back down, BOOM, the balloon the FED is holding underwater will resurface as the supply side has not been addressed and potentially to new all-time highs.

3) Unemployment- this is when we go from temporary demand destruction to long-term demand destruction as people lose jobs, start asking for government help, and wages level off.

Now maybe just maybe the FED pivots causing the market to BOOM similar to 2021 but at some point, we have to deal with the supply side of inflation. That could simply be letting it run crazy hot at 7-10% for 3-5 years. If that is the case, sure as heck you want to be IN the market to help offset the massive risks on the employment/income side (can your income/wages keep up). The more likely outcome will be many waves of BOOM/BUST OR a big BUST in 2023/2024 due to the FED dropping the HAMMER with not only raising rates but keeping them high for way too long.
Click to expand...
The current interest rates are historically normal. We’ve been spoiled for nearly 20 years of absurdly low rates and nearly non existent inflation. We may see a decline in real estate and stock investing if bond and CD rates reach a tipping point. At that point, there will be a ton of money invested in guaranteed income which may provide a good safety net of cash in the event there is a plummet in both real estate and stocks.
 
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