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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

90scane said:
I'm in the boat that the FED will only adjust for one of 3 reasons: Inflation drops (not happening anytime soon), Unemployment jumps (doesn't appear to be happening yet), and the credit markets break to the point the FED has to reverse course (see BOE). Even if **** breaks, the FED could start increasing its balance sheet while raising rates much like the BOE.

Inflation: we will have choppy inflation for the next 2-5 years and could be longer.
Umemployment: I think our numbers are much worse than calculated and I could see them adjust them to make them look worse so they can slow/stop rate hikes.
Credit Markets: this will be the first thing to happen IMO.
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Agree with all of your points. The Fed is getting a lot of political pressure to go dovish, but at the end of the day, they REALLY only have one major responsibility, and that is to keep inflation in check. Look at whats already happened when they forgot that message, lets hope they dont repeat the same mistake again.
 
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AAPL beats on everything but iPhone sales.
SpikeUM said:
Banana republics pressure their central bankers. Look at the disaster Turkey is now, because Erdogan is now effectively the head of their central bank.
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is it possible that Trump, who picked Chair Powell, pressured him?
 
90scane said:
While we aren't going to repeat the 1940s or 1970s, they will rhyme with the 2020s. My guess is we see stagflation of the 1970s with YCC from the 1940s. They have to let inflation run hot to burn off the massive public debt. They can say they want to get inflation under control BUT they can't control supply.

The bigger question: do we lose the global currency status? I would say that has already happened to some degree with the EURO and BRICS. For the US to continue to lead the world, we have to keep pushing forward with technology and keep BRICS from having any access to it.
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Let the BRICS have our older technology, and we'll keep one or two steps ahead.
 
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Tomorrow we get Core Personal Consumption which will show the average amount of money that consumers spend
excluding food and energy.
 

U.S. Senator Reminds Powell of Fed’s Dual Mandate​

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing political pressure over interest rate hike decisions. U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), chair of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, sent a letter to Powell on Tuesday asking him to consider the Fed’s dual mandate before making any decision to raise interest rates in the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Senator Brown wrote:

As you know, the Federal Reserve is charged with the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy.
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“It is your job to combat inflation, but at the same time, you must not lose sight of your responsibility to ensure that we have full employment,” the lawmaker stressed.
this says a lot.
 
mr.h said:

U.S. Senator Reminds Powell of Fed’s Dual Mandate​

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing political pressure over interest rate hike decisions. U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), chair of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, sent a letter to Powell on Tuesday asking him to consider the Fed’s dual mandate before making any decision to raise interest rates in the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Senator Brown wrote:


“It is your job to combat inflation, but at the same time, you must not lose sight of your responsibility to ensure that we have full employment,” the lawmaker stressed.
this says a lot.
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More political pressure, banana republic style. And tell me, what has already happened because the Fed was hesitant to raise rates? What do you think will happen if inflation goes unchecked?
 
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SpikeUM said:
More political pressure, banana republic style. And tell me, what has already happened because the Fed was hesitant to raise rates? What do you think will happen if inflation goes unchecked?
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We are not letting inflation go unchecked. like you said, inflation numbers are backwards looking. After this months 75 rate increase, we need to handle inflation more surgically and not with a chainsaw. Even on CNBC and Bloomberg, most talking heads are saying we peaked and will see significant a significant drop in 2023. We will still be raising rates.
I can rinse and repeat, but we agree to disagree.
 
mr.h said:
We are not letting inflation go unchecked. like you said, inflation numbers are backwards looking. After this months 75 rate increase, we need to handle inflation more surgically and not with a chainsaw. Even on CNBC and Bloomberg, most talking heads are saying we peaked and will see significant a significant drop in 2023. We will still be raising rates.
I can rinse and repeat, but we agree to disagree.
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If those are the same talking heads that said it wouldn't happen, then that it's transitory, why do you believe them now?
 
JD08 said:
If those are the same talking heads that said it wouldn't happen, then that it's transitory, why do you believe them now?
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Remember also that even if inflation "moderates", food is still much higher than a year ago, gasoline is, housing is, etc.
 
SpikeUM said:
Remember also that even if inflation "moderates", food is still much higher than a year ago, gasoline is, housing is, etc.
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That's one of those things that lags. The grain that farmers had to purchase at high cost now won't show up in meat costs until slaughter.
 
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90scane said:
I'm in the boat that the FED will only adjust for one of 3 reasons: Inflation drops (not happening anytime soon), Unemployment jumps (doesn't appear to be happening yet), and the credit markets break to the point the FED has to reverse course (see BOE). Even if **** breaks, the FED could start increasing its balance sheet while raising rates much like the BOE.

Inflation: we will have choppy inflation for the next 2-5 years and could be longer.
Umemployment: I think our numbers are much worse than calculated and I could see them adjust them to make them look worse so they can slow/stop rate hikes.
Credit Markets: this will be the first thing to happen IMO.
Click to expand...

Credit Suisse = Bear Stearns, Lehman et al?
 
SpikeUM said:
Credit Suisse = Bear Stearns, Lehman et al?
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We won't know until '24 when they run out of capital and get margin calls. Yes, they have that much time and capital. I also think the dynamics change before Credit Suisse gets called. Meaning, central banks "pivot" with YCC or Bond purchasing thus keeping them and others afloat. Doing so will keep inflation running hot.

To me:
Pension Funds = Bear Stearns, Lehman et al.
Illinois, U.K. and a number of others were playing with leverage when they shouldn't have.

Buckle up because the 2020s will be a hot mess! Even if they get a soft landing in 2023/2024, when they stop holding the beachball underwater (demand) and do any QE that ball will pop up and inflation will return. Why? No one is working on the supply chains. Heck, Biden stopping China from getting chips (I'm a fan of this policy) means higher chip prices across the supply chain thus more inflation. Oil... who is working on adding supply (Not the USA)? Housing: Rates are crushing builders which means supply will not catch up leading to a big bubble in apartments and big inflation in SFR (this is my big bet with a large portfolio of rentals).
 
JD08 said:
If those are the same talking heads that said it wouldn't happen, then that it's transitory, why do you believe them now?
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Because inflation has peaked and dropping. If we try to fix it overnight, it will be a disaster. Right now we have a decent economy, Every thing is transitory…lol

PS…muh AAPL
 
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SpikeUM said:
Remember also that even if inflation "moderates", food is still much higher than a year ago, gasoline is, housing is, etc.
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The increase in rates is also stifling an building houses and other supply to meet demand. I will always feel we should have worked on increasing supply and stopping government spending.
 
PanteraCanes said:
The increase in rates is also stifling a building houses and other supply to meet demand. I will always feel we should have worked on increasing supply and stopping government spending.
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The rate increases killed the housing market, so some commodity prices have fallen.
The government spends money because that’s what it does. Everything you see around is because of government spending.
 
mr.h said:
The rate increases killed the housing market, so some commodity prices have fallen.
The government spends money because that’s what it does. Everything you see around is because of government spending.
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The housing market was already slowing down before the rate increases. Since the prices don’t appear to be dropping. The people selling are just holding out until someone buys at their price because the supply is still low.

Everything I see around good is more a product of capitalism while a lot of slowing is coming from the government. If government spending and control causes utopia paradise then why are all the communist countries going the opposite way?
 
PanteraCanes said:
The housing market was already slowing down before the rate increases. Since the prices don’t appear to be dropping. The people selling are just holding out until someone buys at their price because the supply is still low.

Everything I see around good is more a product of capitalism while a lot of slowing is coming from the government. If government spending and control causes utopia paradise then why are all the communist countries going the opposite way?
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Spending and taxation is a problem, but both Dems and Republicans spend too much. I’m seeing prices dropping on gas, retail and stores like home depot and Lowe. Food will follow, because most people are not going to pick up a ribeye or a filet for over $20..That ribeye then becomes chopped meat. I owned meat markets and food, especially meats, turn bad fast. “Mark em down”
 
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