Economy overheating still. The higher the altitude, the harder the fall. A number of well known folks, including Minard and Gundlach (and Rosenberg above) are calling for a bottom at 3,000. I think/hope that is way too bearish, but they are not stupid people.
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- Thread starter Bird4um
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Economy overheating still. The higher the altitude, the harder the fall. A number of well known folks, including Minard and Gundlach (and Rosenberg above) are calling for a bottom at 3,000. I think/hope that is way too bearish, but they are not stupid people.
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TheEye
Mario and Dan are upgrades. Period.
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Do my eyes deceive me, or has the yield curve reverted from its inverted state?
You are like looking at the coupon, not the yield, the 2 yr is +/-3.85%, vs. +/- 3.45%, both very close to key technical levels.
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
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IMO Deflation is a natural part of an economic cycle. As prices go down, cash, again is KING...jmo
Musk warns of deflation and what it means...
On Sept. 9, the influential CEO, who has nearly 106 million followers on the social network Twitter, had warned that if the central bank raised its rates by 75 basis points, the move would provoke deflation, which means most goods and services would become ridiculously cheap.
"A major Fed rate hike risks deflation," the billionaire said.
Basically, Tesla's CEO is saying the Fed is going too far, too fast and must slow down.
Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It is characterized by a continuous fall in the general level of prices. It can encourage households to postpone their purchasing decisions as they wait for further price declines, economists say. The consequences can be devastating as overall consumption slumps. Then, companies that can no longer sell their products reduce production and investment.
Musk warns of deflation and what it means...
On Sept. 9, the influential CEO, who has nearly 106 million followers on the social network Twitter, had warned that if the central bank raised its rates by 75 basis points, the move would provoke deflation, which means most goods and services would become ridiculously cheap.
"A major Fed rate hike risks deflation," the billionaire said.
Basically, Tesla's CEO is saying the Fed is going too far, too fast and must slow down.
Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It is characterized by a continuous fall in the general level of prices. It can encourage households to postpone their purchasing decisions as they wait for further price declines, economists say. The consequences can be devastating as overall consumption slumps. Then, companies that can no longer sell their products reduce production and investment.
TheEye
Mario and Dan are upgrades. Period.
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Ok, thank you.
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TheEye
Mario and Dan are upgrades. Period.
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But the lower hike will have to be dependent on the inflation numbers. I think 8% next month is still too high for J Powell to call of the dogs.
I saw, and he may be right, but for a different reason. While I think inflation will moderate, I dont see it going anywhere near 2%, because of food, rental housing, electricity, health care, wages, etc. So the Fed will have to hike us into a severe recession.
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
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The Fed needs to be realistic..we need to start seeing inflation dropping. Supply and Demand will take its course
The cure shouldn’t be worse than the disease.
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Pay Attention to the Bond Market for an 'All-Sell' Signal
The stock market is always the last to know.
From BAC ML's technical piece this morning, the levels are lower than previous calls.
Tale of the Tape:
S&P 500 in 20th bear market past 140 years; average peak to trough decline 37.3%, average duration 289 days; history no guide to future but history says bear market ends Oct 19th 2022 (35thanniversary Black Monday) with S&P 500 at 3020 (note Nasdaq already down -29%); EPS recession shock (see FedEx) the catalyst for new lows; we say nibble at SPX 3600, bite at 3300, gorge at 3000.
Tale of the Tape:
S&P 500 in 20th bear market past 140 years; average peak to trough decline 37.3%, average duration 289 days; history no guide to future but history says bear market ends Oct 19th 2022 (35thanniversary Black Monday) with S&P 500 at 3020 (note Nasdaq already down -29%); EPS recession shock (see FedEx) the catalyst for new lows; we say nibble at SPX 3600, bite at 3300, gorge at 3000.
@GladeCane How are you doing?
Another technical piece from BA/ML
A declining 200-day MA confirms a cyclical bear market. If 3900-3886 gives way to bearish pressure, there are supports near 3810 (May low and 7/15 upside gap) and 3738-3712 (late June/mid July lows), but the risk would build for a retest or undercut of the June low at 3636. A tactical count and measured move for a break below 3900-3886 suggest deeper downside risk into the 3720 to 3680 range on the SPX. However, the projection for a break below the uptrend line from June would not rule out a probe into the 3400 handle (3435), which means that the risk has increased for the SPX to undercut its secular bull market support (stress test level) at the rising 200-week MA near 3580
A declining 200-day MA confirms a cyclical bear market. If 3900-3886 gives way to bearish pressure, there are supports near 3810 (May low and 7/15 upside gap) and 3738-3712 (late June/mid July lows), but the risk would build for a retest or undercut of the June low at 3636. A tactical count and measured move for a break below 3900-3886 suggest deeper downside risk into the 3720 to 3680 range on the SPX. However, the projection for a break below the uptrend line from June would not rule out a probe into the 3400 handle (3435), which means that the risk has increased for the SPX to undercut its secular bull market support (stress test level) at the rising 200-week MA near 3580
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I go off line. Road trips, cruise ships, etc.
Good for you!
The poor and elderly are getting it the worst; and, yet they keep voting for these pricks.
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mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
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There is always a bottom. Even when the S&P went down to 666 and it looked liked the banks were failing. Those who held came back much higher than their original investment. Those who sold, took heavy losses. Just think of it as a paper loss..lol
While I agree that "market timing" is usually unproductive, IMO there are a few rare times when its warranted. It certainly has been for the last year, and I am glad I have so much cash.
Looking ahead, we still have an expensive market, bonds that now pay more than dividend stocks, and most importantly a Fed that is way behind, and being forced to raise dramatically and do QT at the same time. I dont see how we dont have a hard landing, maybe a brutally hard landing, because of stagflation.
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So it's still worth converting any retirement investments to bonds.
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