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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

SpikeUM said:
While I agree that "market timing" is usually unproductive, IMO there are a few rare times when its warranted. It certainly has been for the last year, and I am glad I have so much cash.

Looking ahead, we still have an expensive market, bonds that now pay more than dividend stocks, and most importantly a Fed that is way behind, and being forced to raise dramatically and do QT at the same time. I dont see how we dont have a hard landing, maybe a brutally hard landing, because of stagflation.
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Stagflation is high inflation, rising unemployment and demand for goods declining. Unemployment is at its lowest lever and has been increasing since covid. Demand for goods remain high because supply is still lagging demand. Our economy is strong we will become a manufacturing giant. Can it all reverse..yes, but we are not there. Once we see a measurable drop in inflation and the Fed lowers hikes, I believe the mkt will rise. Years of low interest rates and covid is why we are in an inflation cycle. My main concern is global growth which is tied to rising energy prices. Historically rates are low. This is just my take and I’m a glass half filled guy. Cash is still king.
 
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mr.h said:
Stagflation is high inflation, rising unemployment and demand for goods declining. Unemployment is at its lowest lever and has been increasing since covid. Demand for goods remain high because supply is still lagging demand. Our economy is strong we will become a manufacturing giant. Can it all reverse..yes, but we are not there. Once we see a measurable drop in inflation and the Fed lowers hikes, I believe the mkt will rise. Years of low interest rates and covid is why we are in an inflation cycle. My main concern is global growth which is tied to rising energy prices. Historically rates are low. This is just my take and I’m a glass half filled guy. Cash is still king.
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We have high inflation and negative economic growth. Unemployment increasing seems like a matter of time.
 
JD08 said:
We have high inflation and negative economic growth. Unemployment increasing seems like a matter of time.
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This is happening only because of Fed hikes. The Fed is trying to slow the economy. I bought a home when my mortgage rate was 9% and had a commercial loan at 12% and we all survived. Rates are relatively low. I remember buying 5% CD’s not too long ago. We had economic easing for too long, now they are tightening. The sky isn’t falling. Companies are doing well in many sectors and supply is catching up up with demand.
Technically we are in a recession, but without covid closings, we will come back strong. We are doing better than other economies. Inflation has peaked. Think long term.
 
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mr.h said:
This is happening only because of Fed hikes. The Fed is trying to slow the economy. I bought a home when my mortgage rate was 9% and had a commercial loan at 12% and we all survived. Rates are relatively low. I remember buying 5% CD’s not too long ago. We had economic easing for too long, now they are tightening. The sky isn’t falling. Companies are doing well in many sectors and supply is catching up up with demand.
Technically we are in a recession, but without covid closings, we will come back strong. We are doing better than other economies. Inflation has peaked.
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I remember the 80's as well. I don't disagree that easing has gone on too long and it needs to be corrected, but the excessive spending needs to be reined in as well as rate hikes. Servicing that additional debt with higher interest rates is not the solution for a growing economy.
 
JD08 said:
I remember the 80's as well. I don't disagree that easing has gone on too long and it needs to be corrected, but the excessive spending needs to be reined in as well as rate hikes. Servicing that additional debt with higher interest rates is not the solution for a growing economy.
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Republicans and Democrats do not have an answer for reducing debt. That is not affecting the market at this point.
At some point we will have make painful decisions by cutting spending and raising taxes.
 
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Anyone starting to nibble back in yet? Getting close to adding MSFT, GOOGL, and maybe some VGT (info tech ETF). For more defensive, JNJ and then DVN's dividend looks nice.
 
Msft is at a good price. Haven’t been adding chunks. But definitely been nibbling the large caps.
Didn’t have any google exposure in the past 2 years so have been adding slowly to that. Under $100, I would likely add more. Nibbled at more apple at $155 last week.
 
wspcane said:
Anyone starting to nibble back in yet? Getting close to adding MSFT, GOOGL, and maybe some VGT (info tech ETF). For more defensive, JNJ and then DVN's dividend looks nice.
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No, just the opposite, there should be a short covering rally soon, I might take more off.
 
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TheEye said:
Brutal day.
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Brutal year..I'm hoping that Powell is talking tough, but does not want a full blown recession. We are starting to see supply lines opening, which is a major cause of inflation. Lower rate hikes and wait it out.
 
mr.h said:
Brutal year..I'm hoping that Powell is talking tough, but does not want a full blown recession. We are starting to see supply lines opening, which is a major cause of inflation. Lower rate hikes and wait it out.
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What do you think his response will be to a 7% rate of inflation in the next report?
 
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GladeCane said:
The advice on here is more valuable.
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My comment was more aimed at GS, which is very good institutionally, but below average investments wise. Here is a quote from yesterday's Barrons.

When Goldman reduced its year-end S&P 500 price target in May from 4,700 to 4,300 (it began the year with 5,100) the market was predicting the Fed would stop its hiking cycle around 3.25%. Now traders reckon the so-caled terminal rate will be 4.6%, and Goldman’s economists see a possible peak Fed funds rate as high as 4.75% by next spring.
 
SpikeUM said:
www.wsj.com

Buying the Stock-Market Dip Is Backfiring. Investors Keep Piling In Anyway.

It is the worst year for buying the stock-market dip since the 1930s. Instead of rebounding after a tumble, stocks have continued to fall, denting a strategy that soared in popularity over the past decade.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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Been shorting the market, but mostly cash. Looking to start buying back into the S&P at around 3300. My big concerns are Putin and our tone deaf president's policies.

What are your thoughts?
 
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