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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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Aug 3 (Reuters) - It would be 'reasonable' for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month if the economy evolves as expected, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday, as she cautioned once again that policymakers are resolute in reducing decades-high inflation.

"I start from the idea that 50 would be a reasonable thing to do in September because I believe I'm seeing evidence in my contact conversations, and in the observations of the world I see, that there are some bright spots for me," Daly said in an interview with Reuters.
Soft landing? I’m hoping.
 
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SpikeUM said:
Crypto to me is not that much different than meme stocks, its a greater fool theory. This is especially true in a higher interest rate world that we are in.
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This was my father's philosophy. There's a difference betwwen investing and speculation. You invest in a winning company that's well managed. You gamble on a stock that might go up.
 
mr.h said:
Aug 3 (Reuters) - It would be 'reasonable' for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month if the economy evolves as expected, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday, as she cautioned once again that policymakers are resolute in reducing decades-high inflation.

"I start from the idea that 50 would be a reasonable thing to do in September because I believe I'm seeing evidence in my contact conversations, and in the observations of the world I see, that there are some bright spots for me," Daly said in an interview with Reuters.
Soft landing? I’m hoping.
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I dont agree with Daly, and a soft landing would be the first one......

p.s. While the reported inflation will come down, expenses are really still much higher.
 
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At one point the rate hikes have to get priced in..imo

Powell’s hawkishness takes away gains. The mkt should know there is at least one more 75 rate hike. With oil prices going down it will be interesting to see more than a insignificant drop.
 
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The reason why we had volatility today

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve is "strongly committed" to fighting inflation, but there remains hope it can be done without the "very high social costs" involved in prior campaigns to control surging prices, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday.

Powell, in a 40-minute webcast interview with Cato Institute President Peter Goettler, was not asked about the U.S. central bank's policy meeting later this month, when it is expected to raise its target interest rate by either half or three-quarters of a percentage point, and the Fed chief did not volunteer any information on his preference.

Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate currently anticipate the larger 75-basis-point increase, an expectation that rose through the day after the European Central Bank hiked its policy rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, and a decline in U.S. weekly jobless claims pointed to continuing strength in the labor market.

But Powell did restate what has now become the Fed's message of the moment: Policymakers won't back down on planned rate increases."We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing, and we need to keep at it until the job is done," Powell said. "The Fed has and accepts responsibility for price stability."

"My colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and we will keep at it until the job is done."
 
On a negative note, Guggenheim Global say we will hit lows in September and October because stocks are still too expensive. Says GDP is dismal. El Elian agrees.
Consumer prices next Tuesday
Retail sales Thursday
Consumer confidence next Friday
CPI on September 13th
 
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As we turn the calendar closer to October, we get into the good period in the market, but its hard to be super bullish knowing that Europe is in stagflation, China is slowing down dramatically, most EM is down as well, and the Fed is going to keep raising rates.

www.wsj.com

ECB Raises Interest Rates by Historic 0.75 Point as Europe Stares at Recession

The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate by 0.75 percentage point, moving aggressively to combat record inflation even as an energy crisis puts Europe on the brink of recession.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
We had a nice bounce on Friday that would have continued if it was any other day in week.
CPI on Tuesday…
 
For the first time in a long while, some folks/outfits that were previously negative have now turned cautiously optimistic. Part of it is Seasonality, we will soon be entering the "good" months in the market, part of it is they believe 3900 is the bottom.
 
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