Sonny Odogwu is a Cane!

[Biscuits]

I love it.

 

[Dan E. Dangerously]

Love the It's always Sonny meme

 

[bomb]

That's the meanest lookin' summbitch I ever seen.


WANT

Sunshine rating = nuclear holocaust

 

[Ethnicsands]

Christian Okoye? Check.
****mbe Mutumbo? Check.
Joseph Addai? Check.
hakeem olajuwon? Check.

Don't get me wrong, I think this kid is going to be a winner for us. The hardship he's gone through and the obstacles he's overcome could barely be comprehended by the entitled 5 stars who think they are already in the NFL.
This kid seems like he's going to run through a wall for us and then look for another wall after that.

Exactly. It's not like this dude is some clumsy stumble bum who weighs 240 pounds. He's a 300 pounder already with excellent athletic skills. I'm not really seeing all this "project" talk.

If his name was Jerry Jackmeat with those measurables and basketball background guys would be treating him like any other great prospect. They hear Odogwu and think all of a sudden he's going to run out on the practice field in a loin cloth with a spear yelling "oongawaaa!".

Seriously. Nobody was whining when we took a commit from a kid named Hunter Knighton, who is also a 3 star.

I don't recall a ton of celebrating, either. And I'm not knocking him or Ogoowoo. They're 'eval' kids -- and we don't know yet how to assess AG's OL evals. We have reason to be skeptical of Kehoe's, IMO, but I do trust Golden's way more on top of recruiting than the past two clown HCs we had were, so I won't blame Art for these kids. I just don't assume he added that much to the assessment, either.

Personally, I'd take Ogunwele over Knighton anyhow. At least for OL.

 

[Ethnicsands]

I like this young man. Size, quickness, and most important - attitude.

The coaching staff has done pretty well - a **** of a lot better than some of the recruiting experts I've seen here.

Of those who don't like this pick up, how many times have you spoken to Sunny? How many times have you talked to him and looked him in the eye? Speak to his coaches at length?

And you, have you spoken to him and looked him in the eye and spoken to his coaches at length? Or do those things only matter if someone expresses concern, and not when they grab the pom poms?

I didn't say I spoke to him. I'm saying the coaches did.

Difficult concept.

Which part shorted you out?

Come on, you're supposed to be this legendary tough guy and you're hiding behind semantics? GTFOOH and man up, soldier. You took a shot at critics, in the middle of a debate. You didn't take a like shot at those proclaiming him the next John Mugabe.

This is a recruiting board. People discuss recruits here. There's really no point to have a board if you think all that can be done is assume the staff is on it and high five each other. I watched a decade of that under Shancoker. Same exact crap you just posted. Trust the staff, yada yada yada.

I happen to trust AG a lot. But he's not proven yet on evaluations, particularly on OL. (Or on gameday coaching, for that matter.) And in any case, the purpose of threads on the recruiting board is for people to exchange views. The view that there's nothing to say because the coaches know more, if that's your general view, is really not additive to anything said here, IMO. You might as well just woo woo woo a few times and exit the discussion.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Excellent post. Most of the OL and DL in the NFL are 3 stars. Fact.

It's a tough position to project from HS to college because a lot of the big kids just push smaller kids around in HS without much effort or technique. You need to find good athletes with the right attitude. The hard part is the attitude evaluation. Seems like Sunny has that in boatloads along with a great frame and good athletic ability.

Freckles Davis used to put a premium on finding big kids who played basketball in HS. Sunny fits that bill too.

I don't see the downside here at all. If you're concerned about his offer list take solace in Sumlin offering him. Sumlin is a pretty smart dude and an offensive wizard.

Your first statement is a bit overzealous...sure, its fact, but that is by proxy of sheer volume. There is usually over 300 "3-star" kids every year...roughly 50 "5-stars" and 150 "4-stars". Give or take a few depending on the service and how they rate players. 5 and 4 star players hit at a higher percentage and trend to play at a higher level than the 3* in any given year.

Sumlin's teams haven't exactly produced NFL talent on the OL...he walked into TAMU with the two best tackles in the country...but, I do agree with what you are getting at...he's not being recruited like a scrub. He's got legit interest/offers. As Mike Bakas would say...he's being recruited like a three star.

With that said, and not pertaining to your post...I think we are all aware that the kid is developmental...Kehoe obviously feels confident in the kid as he's been after him for two years. I like what I've seen from him in regards to growth...glad to see he was able to do that on his "own time" at prep...so he's coming in with a full clock and already grew a ton during that year. That's basically a saved year of development.

It's not really overzealous when you view it in light of the fact that there are only 32 NFL teams compared to the reams of college programs out there and all the kids who get recruited every year. You'd think that the 4 and 5 star DL and OL would rise to the top and take those limited jobs on those 32 teams, but they don't.

As as Sumlin goes, he's proven that he's a very good offensive mind. For those feeling any trepidation over Sunny's offers they should be assuaged by Sumlin feeling good about him.

But, they do.

Just an example or two because I'm not going to do an analysis over a decade or anything...

2007...Scout had 9 5* offensive linemen...5 offensive linemen are now playing in the NFL and one will be a 2013 draft prospect.
2006...Scout had 10 5* offensive linemen...6 of which are now playing in the NFL.

Conversely, there are 200+ 3* offensive linemen in any given year...10-20 may make the NFL. Maybe you'll find an outlying figure on a crazy year.

Yeah, sure...there are more 3*, but 5*'s have an insanely higher on base percentage.

Is "playing in the NFL" really a gauge of success for a 5-star? Corey Nelms is playing in the NFL as of today.

A 5-star player means you are projected to be a first round draft pick and a first round draft pick is expected to be a pro bowl type of player.

Anything short of that means you underachieved when compared to where the mailmen, jock sniffers, and dog catchers ranked you.

I'd like to see what percentage of your guys lived up to their first round hype would be an Interesting stat.

You're suggesting we should have a different measure of success for 5* kids than 3* kids, which is weird considering all we're supposed to care about is how they perform in college -- the NFL discussion, to the extent people are having it, is just a form of ostensibly objective benchmark to compare outcomes.

It's also weird because you're the guy who claims the rankings don't mean anything. If that's true, then not sure why you want to handicap the 5* kids relative to lower rated kids, when assessing whether the rankings meant anything. If your theory were correct, it would all be random.

But we know it's not. And I'm not suggesting we go chase stars. I just think you persistently overstate and misstate the argument against rankings. They do reflect some meaningful information. They're not perfect, and they are not what the staff should pay attention to. But for fans and others, they are directionally helpful. That's statistically proven.

 

[The Franchise]

The "3 star" NFL OL comment has to be a troll job. This isnt the lounge, but no way anyone not named zone3cane is that oblivious to probability and statistics.

There is a huge pool of 3 star guys. Some make the nfl. Overwhelmingly, most dont. So there is zero positive predictive info in respect of assessing this kid that he's a three star as opposed to a four star or five star. The odds of him making the nfl would be higher were he higher ranked.

I'm not saying we should be chasing rankings, either. Just that talking ourselves into thinking being a three star is a positive (relative to higher rated kids) attribute is crazy.

Let me rephrase what he's saying. A 5* player has a high chance of making the NFL, 4* slightly less, and 3* even less. However lets say there are 20, 200, 1000 of each respectively (not too far off the truth). Now lets say a 5* has 50% chance of making the NFL, a 4* 25% and a 3* 10%, these percentages are made up but we can pretty much say that the relation is somewhere along those lines. That means the incoming NFL class will consist of : 10 5*, 50 4* and 100 3*. In this situation 3* make up 62.5% of the incoming class. While you can play with the percentages, even a measly 1% NFL success rate (way below the truth) would mean an equal amount of 5* and 3* in the incoming class assuming 5* succeed at 50%.

This proves you cant simply state the sheer amount of 3 stars in the NFL as proof of the success of a player, because a roster with equal parts 3* and 5* in the NFL would mean that a particular prospect has a 1% success chance, and I don't want to take a kid with those odds. At this point, there's not much else to do but trust the coaches. While 5* and 4* are generally safe pickups, 3* are either not so great players or kids that play in lesser known leagues or were simply overlooked by the gurus (mind you if these gurus were so smart they would be on a coaching staff, but thats another convo). As a result, there's not much else you can do but hope that the guy is one of the latter 2. Or you could also check out tape and see if he is one of the latter 2.

That's a great breakdown. But I'm talking only about offensive and defensive linemen. I would love to see an actual breakdown of the starting offensive and defensive lines of all the teams in the NFL to see how the star factor plays out for the guys who are actually playing on the lines.

I know the star junkies want to pump up the guru ranking systems. As a regular viewer of NFL games, I would be surprised if the vast majority of starters along the lines aren't 3 star or lower guys. I'm not talking about the 5 star guys who played some snaps in preseason games and technically made a roste for a few days like Marcus Fartspin. I'm talking about the main dudes up front who do the work in the league.

 

[Republicane]

 

[WhatTheHell]

/someone please know this

 

[Ethnicsands]

I'm not sure who the star jockeys are supposed to be. I do know there are folks who rail at the stars system year after year, but high five everyone when we sign a high ranked kid. They'll claim it's not the rankings they care about, just the kid, but their enthusiasm always bubbles up when it's that top kid we get. I don't know anyone other than the troll ****tard kowalski who actually thinks discussions should begin or end with stars.

The truth is the system is a datapoint for fans. It's not what the staff relies upon (at least since Coker left), and shouldn't be. But it's basically just an average ranking of recruits based on which programs are after them. And their are a few services that do it. It stands to reason that kids with more top programs after them are probably, on average, better prospects than kids with fewer top programs after them. And the NFL results I've seen others pull together support that, if the NFL is the right way to measure things, which itself is in unclear (we're supposed to be looking at kids for their college production, not their pro potential).

There are always going to be exceptions -- kids who are overrated, kids who lie about their offers (or whose HS coaches lie), kids who slip between the cracks for a repetitive set of reasons (grades, smaller schools, injuries, don't have a cell phone, didn't make summer camps, committed early, etc.). That's fine. But anyone who is honestly trying to assess for themselves what to make of a particular recruit or a class being put together who doesn't look at the data that's out there, including tape, interviews, and which schools are offering or recruiting the kid, is not trying very hard.

Duke Johnson and Ereck Flowers were two of the best kids we signed last year, and their offer sheets and rankings supported it. Bush, Howard, Kirby were next. (A lot of guys on this site had Flowers > Howard. I realize Rivals had Howard as the top cb.) When M. Thomas, Coley, Collins and a few more guys hopefully commit over the next month, I'm pretty sure the guys who claim to be 'against' the star system (whatever that means) are going to feel pretty good about Al Golden's recruiting.

 

[Jeffrey Lebowski]

Christian Okoye? Check.
****mbe Mutumbo? Check.
Joseph Addai? Check.
hakeem olajuwon? Check.

Don't get me wrong, I think this kid is going to be a winner for us. The hardship he's gone through and the obstacles he's overcome could barely be comprehended by the entitled 5 stars who think they are already in the NFL.
This kid seems like he's going to run through a wall for us and then look for another wall after that.

Exactly. It's not like this dude is some clumsy stumble bum who weighs 240 pounds. He's a 300 pounder already with excellent athletic skills. I'm not really seeing all this "project" talk.

If his name was Jerry Jackmeat with those measurables and basketball background guys would be treating him like any other great prospect. They hear Odogwu and think all of a sudden he's going to run out on the practice field in a loin cloth with a spear yelling "oongawaaa!".

I've been in tears for the last 10 minutes.

 

[jerzeycane]

Christian Okoye? Check.
****mbe Mutumbo? Check.
Joseph Addai? Check.
hakeem olajuwon? Check.

Don't get me wrong, I think this kid is going to be a winner for us. The hardship he's gone through and the obstacles he's overcome could barely be comprehended by the entitled 5 stars who think they are already in the NFL.
This kid seems like he's going to run through a wall for us and then look for another wall after that.

Exactly. It's not like this dude is some clumsy stumble bum who weighs 240 pounds. He's a 300 pounder already with excellent athletic skills. I'm not really seeing all this "project" talk.

If his name was Jerry Jackmeat with those measurables and basketball background guys would be treating him like any other great prospect. They hear Odogwu and think all of a sudden he's going to run out on the practice field in a loin cloth with a spear yelling "oongawaaa!".

dude WHAT THE actual ****...

 

[GoldCane]

/someone please know this

I bless the rains down in AAAAfricaaaaa

 

[Biscuits]

/someone please know this

I bless the rains down in AAAAfricaaaaa

I BLESS THE RAINS

 

[Republicane]

If anybody is looking for me at UM games, I'll be the guy tailgating with a keg of Um Bongo.

[video=youtube;wYj5o4kQsXs]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYj5o4kQsXs[/video]

 

[PowerIslam aka Sumdumgoy]

I like it

 

[WhatTheHell]

 

[Consigliere]

I am a 49er fan (the only NFL team I follow closely) and here is their O-Line and D-Line

OT: Joe Staley
*First Round pick, 2 Star TE*
OG: Mike Iupati
*First round pick, 2 Star DT*
C: Jon Goodwin
*5th Round Draft Pick in 2002 before Rivals system*
OG: Alex Boone
*5 Star Tackle, Undrafted*
OT: Anthony Davis
*5 Star Tackle, First round pick*

Joe Looney
*3 Star, 4th Round Pick*
Daniel Kilgore
*2 Star, 5th Round Pick*
Leonard Davis
*1st Round Draft Pick in 2001 before Rivals system*

Just to review
-2 out of 8 players were drafted prior to any ranking by rivals
-2 out of 8 players were rated at another position (Staley and Iupati)
-2 Starters and 2 Back-ups were 2 or 3 star players (Staley, Iupati, Looney and Kilgore)
-2 Starters were 5 stars but only one was drafted (Davis and Boone)
- 49ers drafted 3 of the lineman in the first round, only 1 was a 5 star and 2 were 2 stars (Staley, Iupati and Davis)

Average Star Ranking (I removed the players who were in college prior to rankings)

2 x 5 Stars
1 x 3 Star
3 x 2 Stars
=3.167 Stars

Start Defensive Line

49ers run a 3-4

LDE: Ray McDonald
*3 Star, 3rd Round Pick*
NT: Isaac Sopoaga
*4th Round Draft Pick in 2004 before Rivals system*
RDE: Justin Smith
*1st Round Draft Pick in 2001 before Rivals system*

NT: Ian Williams
*3 Star DT, Undrafted*
RDE: Ricky Jean Francois
*4 Star DE, 7th Round Pick*

Aldon Smith also plays some DE
*First Round Pick, 3 Star DE*

- 3 3 Stars and 1 4 Star
- 4 Star was drafted in the 7th Round
- 2 3 Stars were drafted 1 in the first round and 1 in the 3rd Round

Avg Ranking

1 x 4 Star
3 x 3 Star
=3.25 Star Avg

 

[WhatTheHell]

I feel like O-Line is the toughest position to project. I don't have the attention span to do it, but just going from what I appear to hear on Sundays when the players rattle off their schools, a lot of them come from ******* nowhere.

 

[Consigliere]

I feel like O-Line is the toughest position to project. I don't have the attention span to do it, but just going from what I appear to hear on Sundays when the players rattle off their schools, a lot of them come from ****ing nowhere.

I agree. I don't think there is much rhyme or reason. Both lines and the QB position, I don't have the slightest clue at all (not that I understand the other positions either).