Sonny Odogwu is a Cane!

[Ethnicsands]

I feel like O-Line is the toughest position to project. I don't have the attention span to do it, but just going from what I appear to hear on Sundays when the players rattle off their schools, a lot of them come from ******* nowhere.

I agree. A big part of it, IMO, is it's a position where there is just a huge gap between the body needed for college, let alone the NFL, and HS kids. A HS RB or WR or CB can play right away in college. 95% of OL kids need 2-3 years to hit the weights and mature. And plenty of them aren't contributors until their fourth year in the program. Some are actually solid two year players in years 4-5. And then other than top players, it can take a couple years to become a solid NFL starter. So you're talking about looking at a 17 year old kid and projecting 7+ years down the road. Where what you're projecting just doesn't exist in that kid at that age.

None of that, however, changes the probabilities, which still suggest higher recruited kids are more likely to pan out, on average. It just increases the various/tails on outcome distributions.

 

[Consigliere]

None of that, however, changes the probabilities, which still suggest higher recruited kids are more likely to pan out, on average. It just increases the various/tails on outcome distributions.

They only rank X players 4 and 5 Star Lineman

They rank 10X players 3 star Lineman

So if 20 4 an 5 Star players make the league and 20 3 Star players make the league, of course the numbers work more toward the bolded above. The thing is I don't know if this is true, I also don't trust the rivals scouts either (it has nothing to do with their abilities to scout just more on the BS bias when certain schools offer certain players). Once the rankings appear tainted, I don't give them much credibility.

The thing is the league is FILLED with lineman who are 3 star players or less. There can only be so many 4/5 star guys. I don't think NFL scouts and coaches give 2 $hits about the rivals rankings either. I posted the stuff about the 49ers above as an example or a sample of my point (I don't follow closely the other teams) that the league is filled with lineman that come from all over and have been ranked differently.

I am only demonstrating that the ranking of lineman shouldn't mean that much.

 

[Ethnicsands]

None of that, however, changes the probabilities, which still suggest higher recruited kids are more likely to pan out, on average. It just increases the various/tails on outcome distributions.

They only rank X players 4 and 5 Star Lineman

They rank 10X players 3 star Lineman

So if 20 4 an 5 Star players make the league and 20 3 Star players make the league, of course the numbers work more toward the bolded above. The thing is I don't know if this is true, I also don't trust the rivals scouts either (it has nothing to do with their abilities to scout just more on the BS bias when certain schools offer certain players). Once the rankings appear tainted, I don't give them much credibility.

The thing is the league is FILLED with lineman who are 3 star players or less. There can only be so many 4/5 star guys. I don't think NFL scouts and coaches give 2 $hits about the rivals rankings either. I posted the stuff about the 49ers above as an example or a sample of my point (I don't follow closely the other teams) that the league is filled with lineman that come from all over and have been ranked differently.

I am only demonstrating that the ranking of lineman shouldn't mean that much.

NO scouts and coaches give two ***** about rankings. Nor should they. No one is suggesting otherwise, either.

Scouts and coaches do their work from the ground up, or they'll be looking for a new job.

That doesn't mean there aren't datapoints that others can look to, in the absence of knowing whether the ground up work is well done or not, that can give you some predictive value.

Anyhow, we're recruiting for UM, not the NFL. I think draft position is an okay proxy for college performance (but far from perfect). I'm not sure what benefit there is to looking further into the NFL for purposes of assessing who we should recruit or how rankings should work for HS kids.

 

[Consigliere]

None of that, however, changes the probabilities, which still suggest higher recruited kids are more likely to pan out, on average. It just increases the various/tails on outcome distributions.

They only rank X players 4 and 5 Star Lineman

They rank 10X players 3 star Lineman

So if 20 4 an 5 Star players make the league and 20 3 Star players make the league, of course the numbers work more toward the bolded above. The thing is I don't know if this is true, I also don't trust the rivals scouts either (it has nothing to do with their abilities to scout just more on the BS bias when certain schools offer certain players). Once the rankings appear tainted, I don't give them much credibility.

The thing is the league is FILLED with lineman who are 3 star players or less. There can only be so many 4/5 star guys. I don't think NFL scouts and coaches give 2 $hits about the rivals rankings either. I posted the stuff about the 49ers above as an example or a sample of my point (I don't follow closely the other teams) that the league is filled with lineman that come from all over and have been ranked differently.

I am only demonstrating that the ranking of lineman shouldn't mean that much.

NO scouts and coaches give two ****s about rankings. Nor should they. No one is suggesting otherwise, either.

Scouts and coaches do their work from the ground up, or they'll be looking for a new job.

That doesn't mean there aren't datapoints that others can look to, in the absence of knowing whether the ground up work is well done or not, that can give you some predictive value.

Anyhow, we're recruiting for UM, not the NFL. I think draft position is an okay proxy for college performance (but far from perfect). I'm not sure what benefit there is to looking further into the NFL for purposes of assessing who we should recruit or how rankings should work for HS kids.

I think you do because the NFL takes a lot of chances on kids and just because a kid is given a tryout or is drafted really late doesn't mean much.

The draft is an okay proxy, I think careers in the NFL tell more than being drafted/signed in the NFL.

If I see a lot of 3 star kids with long tenures or are starting on teams or are CONSTANTLY making rosters, I give credence to this being true (that 3 or less stared players make up the majority of the lineman in the league and the rankings of lineman in HS shouldn't mean much).

Marcus Forston (5 Star) didn't do much at Miami and he wasn't drafted. He was signed by the Pats and waived before the season. Too me he is a 5 star failure, who didn't amount to anything in the league and was waived before the season started.

 

[NorthFlaCane]

Forston was signed to the Pats practice squad.

 

[88]

I Sonny an EE?

 

[WhatTheHell]

What are Sonny's thoughts on Calculus?

 

[BrazilCane]

What are Sonny's thoughts on Calculus?

 

[arcane]

What are Sonny's thoughts on Calculus?

I think I recall reading that Sunny was pretty smart and had a high grade point average, 3.8 or something like that. So who knows.