forums

SMU schedule

Rellyrell said:
One thing I’m trying to figure out in this tiebreaker scenario is if the criteria is based upon the ACC opponents’ total record or is it based upon their ACC record? The language is a bit vague. I know it’s based upon the strength of the opponent, but just not sure if that strength is measured purely on record w/in the conference or the entirety of said opponents’ seasons.
Click to expand...
I think it would have to be record of ACC opponents only. Too much variance in OOC games.
 

Advertisement
NorthernVirginiaCane said:
I'd love to see 3 ACC teams in the playoffs. Only chance is if Clemson, SMU and Miami all run the table.
Click to expand...

which could happen lol. Wow, thats another scenario I never thought about is all 3 getting in. D@mn if all 3 go 12-0, 11-1 and 11-1 its going to be hard to push one of them out but they'll find a way just to get a 8-4 Bama team in
 
www.espn.com

Who will make the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff?

Select your favorite contender, make your picks for how its season will play out and see what the Allstate Playoff Predictor foretells.
www.espn.com

According to this if we win out but don't make the ACCCG, we have a 99% chance of making the playoffs and hosting the first round as a 5 seed.

Also, surprisingly if we lose to GT and don't make the ACCCG, we STILL have a 99% chance of making the playoffs and a 79% chance of hosting a first round as a 7 seed.

And finally, if we lose a game (like GT) and then lose the ACCCG, we still have a 73% chance to make the playoffs as a 9 seed.

According to this, the best scenarios in order are:
1. Win out or lose a game then win ACCCG (100%)
2. Win out and get excluded from ACCCG (99% 5 seed)
3. Lose a regular season game then get excluded from ACCCG (99% 7 seed)
4. Lose a regular season game then lose ACCCG (73% 9 seed)

Not sure if it's accurate but 🤷‍♂️.
 
3-way Clem/SMU/UM tie "who to root for" cheat sheet

1729513942651.png
 
Advertisement
407cane said:
the fact that the tiebreaker is opponents win % is completely BS, ranking in AP poll should be the decision
Click to expand...
The same members of the media who create the AP poll that are biased, don’t watch half the games, and a couple members had an undefeated Miami last week ranked #15?
 
Did a little digging into the tie-breaker in the event all 3 teams go undefeated - which all 3 teams are favored to do (at least on a game by game basis not necessarily when stacked). This would mean the tie-breaker goes to opponent conference win %.

Currently - Miami has the slight edge. Our opponents are currently 13-18 in conference, Clemson opponents are 12-18, and SMU opponents are 11-19.

FSU and Louisville are a clean wash across the board as all 3 teams play those opponents. Their results don't matter unless they play someone that is on no one else's schedule which is only Louisville playing BC (SMU plays BC and Miami and Clemson do not).

Miami's uncommon opponents are GT and Syracuse. Clemson has 1 uncommon opponent in NCST. SMU has 1 uncommon opponent in BC. GT and Syracuse are definitely the best 2 teams of those 4 strongly favoring Miami's odds to be the 1 seed.

Key games that factor into this equation down the stretch will be:

Syracuse at Pitt - This Thursday - Syracuse beating Pitt favors Miami +1 game over both SMU and Clemson
Syracuse at BC - Nov 9 - Need a Syracuse win to add +1 over SMU
NCST at GT - Nov 21 - GT beating NCST is another game that favors Miami over Clemson

Obviously both SMU and Clemson vs Pitt will be big as Pitt is still undefeated in conference. Even if they both stay undefeated that is 2 L's for Pit that don't hit Miami. Also, Clemson has played the most conference games but definitely has the toughest road ahead with a road game at VT and Pitt plus Louisville at home. Would not be surprised to see them slip up and drop one of those. Clemson's defense has been gashed as well.
 
JayCane20 said:
Obviously both SMU and Clemson vs Pitt will be big as Pitt is still undefeated in conference. Even if they both stay undefeated that is 2 L's for Pit that don't hit Miami. Also, Clemson has played the most conference games but definitely has the toughest road ahead with a road game at VT and Pitt plus Louisville at home. Would not be surprised to see them slip up and drop one of those. Clemson's defense has been gashed as well.
Click to expand...

This is what I’m counting on/hoping for too. Clemson has a really tough 3 game stretch coming up. SMU’s schedule is relatively easy now by comparison since they got the W at UL.

Last year 8 P4 teams finished 11-1 or better, but that was an atypically high number. It’s usually between 5 and 7. The chances of the ACC having 3 of those teams in one year is very low. Someone is going to lose (hopefully not us!)
 
NorthernVirginiaCane said:
I'd love to see 3 ACC teams in the playoffs. Only chance is if Clemson, SMU and Miami all run the table.
Click to expand...

Only way this is happening is if Miami loses a game, so, no, I do NOT want to see 3 ACC teams get in. If we run the table, that means one of them has two losses, and a two loss ACC team isn't getting in.
 
Advertisement
Imo, the ACC would love Miami winning out but missing the ACCCG. That would guarantee 2 in the playoffs with an ACC team (Canes) hosting a first round game.
 
Advertisement
Bird4um said:
But I thought playoffs started right away... They are a month later....
Click to expand...
Yeah, someone corrected us the other night. I thought they started later than they do and you thought they started earlier. It looks like a good schedule though - should be lots of fun games for a month!
 
JayCane20 said:
Did a little digging into the tie-breaker in the event all 3 teams go undefeated - which all 3 teams are favored to do (at least on a game by game basis not necessarily when stacked). This would mean the tie-breaker goes to opponent conference win %.

Currently - Miami has the slight edge. Our opponents are currently 13-18 in conference, Clemson opponents are 12-18, and SMU opponents are 11-19.

FSU and Louisville are a clean wash across the board as all 3 teams play those opponents. Their results don't matter unless they play someone that is on no one else's schedule which is only Louisville playing BC (SMU plays BC and Miami and Clemson do not).

Miami's uncommon opponents are GT and Syracuse. Clemson has 1 uncommon opponent in NCST. SMU has 1 uncommon opponent in BC. GT and Syracuse are definitely the best 2 teams of those 4 strongly favoring Miami's odds to be the 1 seed.

Key games that factor into this equation down the stretch will be:

Syracuse at Pitt - This Thursday - Syracuse beating Pitt favors Miami +1 game over both SMU and Clemson
Syracuse at BC - Nov 9 - Need a Syracuse win to add +1 over SMU
NCST at GT - Nov 21 - GT beating NCST is another game that favors Miami over Clemson

Obviously both SMU and Clemson vs Pitt will be big as Pitt is still undefeated in conference. Even if they both stay undefeated that is 2 L's for Pit that don't hit Miami. Also, Clemson has played the most conference games but definitely has the toughest road ahead with a road game at VT and Pitt plus Louisville at home. Would not be surprised to see them slip up and drop one of those. Clemson's defense has been gashed as well.
Click to expand...
If we go undefeated, lose tie breakers to not make ACC Champ somehow, and have the #1 offense in the country, we aren't missing the CFP imo. I actually think either of Miami/Clemson could lose tiebreaker and make CFP. In fact that may be the only way the ACC gets 2 spots - by one of us missing and the other beating SMU in ACC Champ game. Cause I don't think SMU is getting in with 1 loss - even if it is a 3pt loss to B12 Champ BYU - without winning ACC champ game. Clemson probably does with only 1 loss to UGA in 1st game of season. The loser of ACC Champ game is probably eliminated. So if SMU lost tie breaker they are out. And then winner of ACC between Miami and Clemson is the sole ACC Rep.

I think right now SEC is guaranteed 4 spots, B1G is guaranteed 3 spots, B12 and ACC Guaranteed 1 spot, and G5 school guaranteed 1 spot. That would be 10. So from there you have 2 spots open. That is probably a competition between Indiana as 4th B10 spot, Notre Dame, a second ACC school between Miami/Clemson/SMU, Iowa St as B12s only hope for 2nd spot imo, and a 5th SEC school.
 
Advertisement
kanecrazed said:
Their defense will shut down Louisville, and Pitt is suspect. VT is the one team that will give them a fight.
Click to expand...
Their defense is on par with FSU. I don't think they'll "shut down" Louisvillle, especially with Brohm calling plays. They got nothing else to play for except for spoiler.
 
Advertisement
Back
Top