those W-L predictions are laughable. FSU 11-1...... LOL
I think a lot of the predictions you see are where they hope Miami ends up. I'm not a person that thinks everyone dislikes us but it is pretty **** close. They all know when Miami is running full steam and clicking on all cylinders the rest of the teams don't matter because they just can compete.
I don't think it's anything conspiratorial. I just think it's lazy.
Most of these publications just look at win/loss record, and see how many starters are coming back.
They see a 6-6 record, a bunch of guys leaving early for the NFL, a new starting QB, and think we're gonna regress.
It's not bad logic, but they're not factoring in things like culture change, strength & conditioning, familiarity with the scheme, etc...
They gon learn.
I say 7-5 at worst.
Its actually very good logic , culture change , s&c ect . cannot be quantified , no one knows how much positive effect these things will have on the team .
This is an excellent point worth reiterating. A point I've tried to make is that all you really know is what you last saw. Every team around the country thinks they've made some offseason leap because all their freshmen are great and they got some new coach and now they're on some organic diet and a lot of it just doesnt pan out. It's tempting to forget what we last saw. I think we're somewhere between what they think and a lot of the board hype. The only reason I see it better than them is that I think we've lost a lot of games recently due to complacency and I don't think we have enough proven commodities to be complacent
The thing is we're not relying on last year's bums to make quantum leaps. I'd say we're undoubtedly better in absolutely critical areas:
1. Familiarity -- The entire coaching staff is back, so guys should have a better understanding of what they're supposed to do.
2. S & C -- Last year only 11 guys on the roster could bench 225 pounds 20 times. Now we have 41 guys who can. We had zero guys benching 225 pounds 30 times. Now we have 11. Everyone also passed the off-season conditioning test. I have no idea how much that will translate to wins, but we're empirically stronger and better conditioned.
3. DT depth -- Last year our DT rotation for the bulk of the season was Regis, Smith (out of shape at 360 lbs), Ojomo (playing at 268 lbs), and some undersized true freshmen (Pierre and Grimble). This year Porter is back (hopefully), Smith has slimmed down to around 320 lbs, Pierre has put on 30 lbs, and supposedly Luther Robinson had an excellent off-season. I don't know how we're not better here.
4. CB depth -- Last year we had Mike Williams (5th-year Senior who got beat out at Wake Forest), Brandon McGee (big disappointment), JoJo Nicholas (5th-year Senior who converted from Strong Safety in the Spring), Lee Chambers (5th-year Senior who converted from RB in the Spring), Thomas Finnie (true Freshman), and Keion Payne (he may not even exist). Brandon McGee is one of the few sucky guys from last year that we're counting on not to suck this year. Gunter played very well at the JC level and seems to have locked down a spot. Between Finnie and the talented true Freshmen (namely Howard), we need one or two guys to step up and be able to play. I feel a lot better at CB here with guys who have at least played the position prior to the Spring of their 5th years.
Even if we remain stagnant everywhere else (worst-case scenario IMO), the improvements in these key areas should go a long way.
Good coaches usually take a big step forward in year two. If Golden's real, we should be able to win 7 in a mediocre ACC.