RB targets

[bshaw28]

you can say positive things about someone without saying they should be the starting QB at the University of Miami. There is a wide gap between saying a player is starting caliber and that he is trash. That middle ground you are ignoring is where @DMoney's positivity lands.

100% this. I always say this site can't handle the concept of players being average. They always want them to be good or suck with no in-betweens.

@DMoney is a smart guy who knows his stuff and creates excellent content. And he has access to the program and talks to other really smart football people.

Just realize - he used to talk bad on players and he made a conscious decision a while ago not to talk bad on our players anymore. And it makes sense. He's a fan first & he's running a fan site. You're going to get way more people coming to your site with positivity. Go to any fan site or listen to any team podcast and they're all going to slant overwhelmingly positive.

I personally have a problem with the level of sunshine that's pumped at times, and he has a hard time owning up to bad takes (who doesn't), but I appreciate/respect/enjoy what he does.

 

[cway313]

Imagine having the number 1 offense in the country with the best QB and still not making the playoffs because of your defense and then saying, let's go spend a lot of money on a RB who lit up the sisters of the poor, regardless of the fact that we are losing our QB and our top 5 returning receivers.

Lyle is not some Jag, and his role becomes huge next year likely as the lead back, with Fletcher and speed demon Pringle getting reps. We need depth, but not a guy who could potentially push Lyle away.

At the end of the day, Miami should try to upgrade as much as possible, but if there is a certain amount they have available to spend to get players to come here, then I would prefer they spend it at other positions that are in greater need of upgrading, rather than RB.

Ok.

 

[bshaw28]

My point is.

A better RB than both is in the Portal & considering we're not going to have anywhere near the same level of QB play next season, it would behoove us to have an Elite RB to depend on.

The mistake that people are making is assuming that the run game will not have a drop-off in play & production, that it will be the exact same & I'm about 99% sure it won't be. ESPECIALLY, once teams see that we don't have a QB who can stretch the field.

Saying we have Lyle & Fletcher already as the reason for not going after a back like Hughes, would be like saying, "We have JoJo Trader & NY Carr, we don't need Jeremiah Smith".

The key to being a better Football team is to constantly improve in all areas & not just stay stagnant. You get as many good/great players as you can on your roster. Turning down talent & production is a risky business when you're not a perennial conference & playoff contender.

You guys think we're just fine with Lyle & Fletcher, okay... Come December of 25, we'll revisit just how fine the run game will be & why we didn't need to add a back with 2700+yds & 22TD's in 2 seasons.

I'm 100% with you. I think most people realize the RB room will be regressing next year, but I don't think they're prepared by how much.

If roll with who we have - I'm pretty confident Fletcher will be our best RB, and we have a good idea of who he is. I get the excitement about Lyle, but IMO people are overestimating the talent Lyle is/can be.

I like Hughes, but not as much as you. I think he's a clear level below Martinez, and not sure how much of an impact player he'd make.

My longshot hope is that after all these really good RB's declare for the draft this year and see how loaded the draft is at RB this year and how weak it's going to be next year, a couple withdraw, go looking for an NIL payday, and we're there to scoop one.

I get what D$ is saying about the budget - but the great teams need to be good at self-scouting and realizing where they need help.

Also keep in mind - Fletcher & Lyle are 2 highly rated recruits from local power programs. Recruiting out of state former 3 Stars types to play over them every year can be hard to explain to local coaches at schools we're going to need to recruit every year. It's a tricky situation.

 

[Gocanes1990]

My point is.

A better RB than both is in the Portal & considering we're not going to have anywhere near the same level of QB play next season, it would behoove us to have an Elite RB to depend on.

The mistake that people are making is assuming that the run game will not have a drop-off in play & production, that it will be the exact same & I'm about 99% sure it won't be. ESPECIALLY, once teams see that we don't have a QB who can stretch the field.

Saying we have Lyle & Fletcher already as the reason for not going after a back like Hughes, would be like saying, "We have JoJo Trader & NY Carr, we don't need Jeremiah Smith".

The key to being a better Football team is to constantly improve in all areas & not just stay stagnant. You get as many good/great players as you can on your roster. Turning down talent & production is a risky business when you're not a perennial conference & playoff contender.

You guys think we're just fine with Lyle & Fletcher, okay... Come December of 25, we'll revisit just how fine the run game will be & why we didn't need to add a back with 2700+yds & 22TD's in 2 seasons.

Co-sign, he’s going to Oregon tho. We didn’t add Martinez till the spring. So that’s a possibility still. But we have to add another great back. Fletcher is ok, Lyle has a lot of potential and showed flashes that he could be something special but we’re losing our best RB. Pringle doesn’t bring the same element to his game as Martinez has / had. Martinez is an NFL back, can’t lose top five pick at qb, top 5 te, all time wr leader, your top 3 other receivers and not obsessively try to add talent on offense. Especially at RB, especially with the OL we have.

 

[Negro-Wan Kanobi]

I like when D$ pushes back against nonsense. Long overdue.

In hindsight, @DMoney really shouldn't be in a position to be doing that. He's the owner, he should have minions doing that. That's not a knock on him, we're always gonna have idiots on the site. He shouldn't engage, but we can see that him and @WeBallinBoyz are actually cool and just had a disagreement. Which bought our Money's frustration

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

In hindsight, @DMoney really shouldn't be in a position to be doing that. He's the owner, he should have minions doing that. That's not a knock on him, we're always gonna have idiots on the site. He shouldn't engage, but we can see that him and @WeBallinBoyz are actually cool and just had a disagreement. Which bought our Money's frustration

I also went over the line twisting the propaganda narrative. I’m just channeling my frustration with the lack of accountability held toward our HC, whom somehow has completely different standards despite receiving significantly more financial backing than his predecessors…with similar or worse results. And yet, there’s an excuse for everything. That part doesn’t really have to do with him, more so people on this board.

I have no qualms with D$ who is a true Cane and does more for this program than 99.99% of people on here. He’s a good dude.

 

[DMoney]

I also went over the line twisting the propaganda narrative. I’m just channeling my frustration with the lack of accountability held toward our HC, whom somehow has completely different standards despite receiving significantly more financial backing than his predecessors…with similar or worse results. And yet, there’s an excuse for everything. That part doesn’t really have to do with him, more so people on this board.

I have no qualms with D$ who is a true Cane and does more for this program than 99.99% of people on here. He’s a good dude.

 

[MikeCane18]

This RB for Illinois. McCray. Runs pretty hard.

 

[UnForgiven]

In hindsight, @DMoney really shouldn't be in a position to be doing that. He's the owner, he should have minions doing that. That's not a knock on him, we're always gonna have idiots on the site. He shouldn't engage, but we can see that him and @WeBallinBoyz are actually cool and just had a disagreement. Which bought our Money's frustration

In a “minion” relationship, whereas low level subservience is by definition-
- assumed…would it be your belief that both the “Minion” and the “Employer of Minion” would be equally agreeable to the use of the term?

 

[Calinative]

I'm 100% with you. I think most people realize the RB room will be regressing next year, but I don't think they're prepared by how much.

If roll with who we have - I'm pretty confident Fletcher will be our best RB, and we have a good idea of who he is. I get the excitement about Lyle, but IMO people are overestimating the talent Lyle is/can be.

I like Hughes, but not as much as you. I think he's a clear level below Martinez, and not sure how much of an impact player he'd make.

My longshot hope is that after all these really good RB's declare for the draft this year and see how loaded the draft is at RB this year and how weak it's going to be next year, a couple withdraw, go looking for an NIL payday, and we're there to scoop one.

I get what D$ is saying about the budget - but the great teams need to be good at self-scouting and realizing where they need help.

Also keep in mind - Fletcher & Lyle are 2 highly rated recruits from local power programs. Recruiting out of state former 3 Stars types to play over them every year can be hard to explain to local coaches at schools we're going to need to recruit every year. It's a tricky situation.

RB is clearly going to be worse than this past season. Martinez is a quality back, and Fletcher is going to get an even larger workload even though imo is just average. So that alone is a net negative.

I disagree about Lyle. I mean I'm not expecting him to be a star next year or anything. But imo he's going to be clearly a good enough RB to be a starter here. At some point the young guys have to step up and produce. If we can't even count on our highly rated RB to do that, what are we doing... I do want to add a spring portal RB. But I don't think the target should be a guy expecting more than 60-80 touches this season.

2024 stats:
Martinez - 159 attempts, 17 receptions = 176 touches = 45%
Fletcher - 112 attempts, 10 receptions = 122 touches = 31%
Lyle - 54 attempts, 4 receptions = 58 touches = 15%
Allen - 24 attempts, 2 receptions = 26 touches = 7%
CJJr - 6 attempts, 8 receptions = 13 touches = 3%

What I'd predict for next season based on no portal RB addition:
Lyle - 160 touches/40%
Fletcher - 150 touches/35%
Pringle - 70 touches/20%
CWH - 25 touches/5%

If you get a portal rb you just slightly reduce top twos touches, and medium reduction to bottom twos touches.

 

[Calinative]

Grown-up, budget-wise, here's my balance sheet for the offense moving from 2024 to 2025:

QB
Cam comes off the books.
Poff comes off the books.
Nickel comes in.
Emory and Judd should stay flat (neither has shown anything to deserve a raise).
We should have plenty $$$ saved for a QB1 based solely on NIL money coming off the books.
RB
Martinez (assuming he declares, if he doesn't this is all moot) comes off the books.
Ajay comes off the books.
CJJ comes off the books.
Pringle comes in.
Fletcher should stay flat (assuming he already got a raise after 2023).
Lyle might get a raise (depending on where he came in at).
CWH should stay flat (hasn't shown anything).
Again, seems like we have budgetary $$$ gained here.
WR
X comes off the books.
George comes off the books.
Sam Brown comes off the books.
Horton comes off the books.
Robbie Washington comes off the books.
Daniels comes in.
Toney comes in.
Moore comes in.
Upshaw comes in.
Trader, Carr, Robinson, and Joseph should stay flat (none of them got enough reps to justify a raise... maybe Trader off the bowl).
Again, seems like we have budgetary $$$ gained here. That said, I expect we sign another portal WR.
TE
Arroyo comes off the books.
Williams comes off the books.
McCormick comes off the books.
Shott comes in.
Gilbert comes in.
Lofton gets a raise (he's earned it).
Carver remains flat.
Again, seems like we have budgetary $$$ gained here. Looks like we'll be adding a TE in the portal, but I doubt it puts us in the red.
OL
Rivers comes off the books.
Carpenter comes off the books.
Tripp comes off the books.
Frankie T. comes off the books.
Nelson comes off the books (was he even making NIL?).
SJ comes in.
Buchanan comes in.
Campbell comes in.
Wilkerson comes in.
McCoy and Bell remain flat.
Coop and Mauigoa maybe get a raise (but assuming they were already well paid).
Pancake Honcho takes a pay cut.
Nobody else is worth mentioning.
This one might be closer to a wash, but I'd expect we've got some NIL $$$ squirreled away for a center that balances out the NIL budget.

I won't show my work on the defense, but it looks like we are around even or making budgetary savings on the DL. We are definitely at a budgetary surplus at LB. DB is the one spot on the defense where we are clearly budgeting more.

So maybe Hughes is fantasy football, but only if we would pay him more than Martinez. All the other budgetary savings can go to our DB room. Considering the style of offensive football we will likely be forced to play next season, a legitimate RB option shouldn't be dismissed offhand.

All of this makes one gigantic assumption - that Qb market cap is going to be anywhere similar to last year.... I'm very seriously starting to think that Qb expense is close to doubling what it was across the board from the last season or two. Most of these guys coming off the books you listed are unlikely to be making more than like $80-150k/yr. It takes ~10 of those guys coming off the books and you not adding similar cost replacements for you to just make up for the difference in QB pay increasing $1M...

Idk how true all the rumors about these QB numbers are, but what we do know is Michigan just gave Underwood $3-4M/yr out of HS. Nico was rumoured to have gotten $2M/yr out of HS two years ago, and likely got increased. There were rumors Mateer was getting $3-4M offers if not higher lol. There was just this new rumor Ewers was offered close to $6M. There was just the rumor/news that Mensah got $8M/2 yrs at ******* Duke.... All that is starting to add up to top returning Qbs costing closer to $4M or above than $2M or below...

Meanwhile ask yourself what the rumors we got Cam Ward for were... I'm thinking between $2-$2.5M/yr.... So if a WORSE replacement level player (given that Cam was a Heisman level QB) is going to cost at least an additional $1-2M from what we paid Cam, just cause that is what the market is for QBs... then all this savings we are getting is almost irrelevant.

Keep in mind that Franchise Tagged Qbs make like 15% of the salary cap while the Qbs who are signing new deals are getting 20% of the cap. Well if we have a NIL budget of $20M, that's $3M-4M, which is right in line with how the NFL is allocating its money to top Qbs...

Now where all this savings would make an impact is if we don't end up getting a top portal QB... Then we would have a **** load of money to spend on pretty good players across the board. However you still have to budget as if you are going to be spending on Qb for the time being. If we don't get a Qb I'm sure we will hit Spring Portal hard for the best talent available...

 

[Angry Ibis]

Imagine having the number 1 offense in the country with the best QB and still not making the playoffs because of your defense and then saying, let's go spend a lot of money on a RB who lit up the sisters of the poor, regardless of the fact that we are losing our QB and our top 5 returning receivers.

Lyle is not some Jag, and his role becomes huge next year likely as the lead back, with Fletcher and speed demon Pringle getting reps. We need depth, but not a guy who could potentially push Lyle away.

At the end of the day, Miami should try to upgrade as much as possible, but if there is a certain amount they have available to spend to get players to come here, then I would prefer they spend it at other positions that are in greater need of upgrading, rather than RB.

Said another way -- we have so many gaps and failed in so many spots, we cannot afford to upgrade at RB

 

[Angry Ibis]

100% this. I always say this site can't handle the concept of players being average. They always want them to be good or suck with no in-betweens.

@DMoney is a smart guy who knows his stuff and creates excellent content. And he has access to the program and talks to other really smart football people.

Just realize - he used to talk bad on players and he made a conscious decision a while ago not to talk bad on our players anymore. And it makes sense. He's a fan first & he's running a fan site. You're going to get way more people coming to your site with positivity. Go to any fan site or listen to any team podcast and they're all going to slant overwhelmingly positive.

I personally have a problem with the level of sunshine that's pumped at times, and he has a hard time owning up to bad takes (who doesn't), but I appreciate/respect/enjoy what he does.

If he said this, no one would gripe, instead he went all Pete/Geo/Bam and acted like adults on the board who have supported the site for years don't know how things are done or budgets work. It is highly unlikely people will let up on Mario until Mario wins the ACC, makes the Playoff or gets fired. Mario has no leash left for many - no matter how many podiums he pounds.

Let's go - ND is on deck mother****ers.

 

[The U is back to work]

 

[Calinative]

Said another way -- we have so many gaps and failed in so many spots, we cannot afford to upgrade at RB

No, said another way a dollar spent at other positions returns more value/expected output because A) We already have a good rb room and B) money isn’t infinite.

 

[Page305]

I'm not even concerned with who y'all think is better or not..... but the one thing I HATE that y'all do on this site is worry that another player is going to transfer if we choose to bring in another talented player at said position. I don't give 3 feeeuccks if Fletcher or Lyle transfer if that replacement is someone like Huges who is more proven and has more production.

And y'all mothaflickas better tell Fletcher to stop fumbling before it becomes a trait

 

[Cribby]

I'm not even concerned with who y'all think is better or not..... but the one thing I HATE that y'all do on this site is worry that another player is going to transfer if we choose to bring in another talented player at said position. I don't give 3 feeeuccks if Fletcher or Lyle transfer if that replacement is someone like Huges who is more proven and has more production.

And y'all mothaflickas better tell Fletcher to stop fumbling before it becomes a trait

Fletcher is starting to get reputation as a fumbler. Imagine if he was the lead back getting more carries?

 

[Angry Ibis]

No, said another way a dollar spent at other positions returns more value/expected output because A) We already have a good rb room and B) money isn’t infinite.

Your hope does not make my post inaccurate.

 

[flips]

That's wild a LB would be priority over a WR or RB if that was accurate

Our WR room is terrifying. Ny Carr didn't look physically ready against ISU. Hopefully that changes in the off-season. JoJo Trader and CJ Daniels should be good, but they are either unproven at this level and/or coming off an injury. With Horton and Brown gone for sure we need 2 more WRs.

I still think we need a power running back, whether that's Lofton getting 15-20 snaps a game at RB or someone else in either portal period.

 

[Damiencane86]

Our WR room is terrifying. Ny Carr didn't look physically ready against ISU. Hopefully that changes in the off-season. JoJo Trader and CJ Daniels should be good, but they are either unproven at this level and/or coming off an injury. With Horton and Brown gone for sure we need 2 more WRs.

I still think we need a power running back, whether that's Lofton getting 15-20 snaps a game at RB or someone else in either portal period.

Didn't really see Carr targeted more than once in the bowl game and it was Emory short arming it so yeah but I think we add 1 more portal wr. Might just be me but I think Upshaw gets on the field sooner than later. We added Martinez in 2nd portal window last year so not too worried about us adding a rb. Qb is what worries me right now. High anxiety until we get our trigger man.