Quantifying our Coordinators

[Miami82]

I get the issue with talent but the way we blitz just seems poor from my untrained eye. I watch the Bamas of the world walk multiple guys to the LOS and you never know who is coming. **** they will do it and then back em out at the snap all the time. We seem to bring one guy from quite a few yards back and its just to simple to pick up for teams. Very few instances where I can't tell when and who is going to blitz and I'm a guy on the couch. Seems like poor design to me.

+1. To me, there isn't any deception in our blitz packages, and they're quite bland. I've noticed that many of our blitzers are way off the line of scrimmage as well. But, my knowledge of x's and o's are quite limited so maybe I'm making this a bigger deal than it truly warrants.

Bama has a top 5 staff as well.

 

[LuCane]

If we just look at final results without context, I think we miss a significant part of the real story behind our progress, what we should expect and what we should do going forward.

I judge Coordinators and coaches by both in-game results (production) and final results (wins/losses), but I always try to put it in the context of what they're working with in terms of talent (and also judge their role in choosing and acquiring that talent). My understanding of what a coordinator should do is to maximize the capacity of the unit (made up of individual players) available. Therefore, here's what I did: I quantified what I believed each unit is capable of and then judge based on what they actually do (effectiveness).

Defense

If maximum effectiveness with our current talent/players on defense is a 68 out of 100, we're probably doing a 52 for the season, whereby we did a 62 last week and a 44 this week (given that we were missing 3 of our 4 best defenders).

Season = 76% capacity
Last week = 91% capacity
This week = 65% capacity

Offense

If maximum effectiveness with our current talent/players on offense is a 79 out of 100, we're probably doing a a 64 for the season, whereby we did a 55 last week and a 68 this week (given that we were missing our 2nd best WR, but points total was helped by special teams and a safety).

Season = 81% capacity
Last week = 70% capacity
This week = 86% capacity

Comparison

So, by these numbers (that I acknowledge I have calculated based on both subjective and objective data), I think our coordinators are doing their jobs at much closer rates of effectiveness than most fans would view on the surface. Fisch is doing more with more, and he's even being more effective in his % of capacity, but it's basically a B- vs. middle C.

Conclusion

My conclusion is that, based on these numbers, neither should be fired, but we have to demand that our coaches are at a consistent 85% and higher.

LU you would have to show how you weighted the capacity to have any discussion with substance.

Fair. I was fuming and didn't want to write a thesis. Still don't, but here's how I came up with capacity.

(1) Where I thought they'd be ranked nationally at the end of the year (Total Weight 30%)
(2) Talent (season vs. game) (Total Weight 40%)
(a) Youth
(b) Likely NFL players within the next 2 years
(c) Continuity (OLine vs. DLine, for example)
(3) Competition (Total Weight 20%)
(4) Ability to execute scheme (Total weight 10%)
(e.g. we're a spread team - do we have players who can play in the spread)

Out of 100.

For historical context, our 2003 defense, playing in Shannon's scheme, in the Big East, etc., would be like a 96 capacity out of 100.

 

[LuCane]

I get the issue with talent but the way we blitz just seems poor from my untrained eye. I watch the Bamas of the world walk multiple guys to the LOS and you never know who is coming. **** they will do it and then back em out at the snap all the time. We seem to bring one guy from quite a few yards back and its just to simple to pick up for teams. Very few instances where I can't tell when and who is going to blitz and I'm a guy on the couch. Seems like poor design to me.

+1. To me, there isn't any deception in our blitz packages, and they're quite bland. I've noticed that many of our blitzers are way off the line of scrimmage as well. But, my knowledge of x's and o's are quite limited so maybe I'm making this a bigger deal than it truly warrants.

Bama has a top 5 staff as well.

For further context, Fisch has about 10x the chance of being an NFL coordinator before D'Ono. It's disappointing to watch him fumble in Andy Reid fashion because he personally has a lot of talent as a play designer.

 

[ethiocane8126]

Bama has a top 5 staff as well.

Yes, but coach Golden asserted that coach D is one of the best defensive minds in the business lol.

 

[Miami82]

If we just look at final results without context, I think we miss a significant part of the real story behind our progress, what we should expect and what we should do going forward.

I judge Coordinators and coaches by both in-game results (production) and final results (wins/losses), but I always try to put it in the context of what they're working with in terms of talent (and also judge their role in choosing and acquiring that talent). My understanding of what a coordinator should do is to maximize the capacity of the unit (made up of individual players) available. Therefore, here's what I did: I quantified what I believed each unit is capable of and then judge based on what they actually do (effectiveness).

Defense

If maximum effectiveness with our current talent/players on defense is a 68 out of 100, we're probably doing a 52 for the season, whereby we did a 62 last week and a 44 this week (given that we were missing 3 of our 4 best defenders).

Season = 76% capacity
Last week = 91% capacity
This week = 65% capacity

Offense

If maximum effectiveness with our current talent/players on offense is a 79 out of 100, we're probably doing a a 64 for the season, whereby we did a 55 last week and a 68 this week (given that we were missing our 2nd best WR, but points total was helped by special teams and a safety).

Season = 81% capacity
Last week = 70% capacity
This week = 86% capacity

Comparison

So, by these numbers (that I acknowledge I have calculated based on both subjective and objective data), I think our coordinators are doing their jobs at much closer rates of effectiveness than most fans would view on the surface. Fisch is doing more with more, and he's even being more effective in his % of capacity, but it's basically a B- vs. middle C.

Conclusion

My conclusion is that, based on these numbers, neither should be fired, but we have to demand that our coaches are at a consistent 85% and higher.

LU you would have to show how you weighted the capacity to have any discussion with substance.

Fair. I was fuming and didn't want to write a thesis. Still don't, but here's how I came up with capacity.

(1) Where I thought they'd be ranked nationally at the end of the year (Total Weight 30%)
(2) Talent (season vs. game) (Total Weight 40%)
(a) Youth
(b) Likely NFL players within the next 2 years
(c) Continuity (OLine vs. DLine, for example)
(3) Competition (Total Weight 20%)
(4) Ability to execute scheme (Total weight 10%)
(e.g. we're a spread team - do we have players who can play in the spread)

Out of 100.

For historical context, our 2003 defense, playing in Shannon's scheme, in the Big East, etc., would be like a 96 capacity out of 100.

Thanks for posting this.

I'd have to sit back and process this. Still too hot to do that.

 

[Miami82]

I get the issue with talent but the way we blitz just seems poor from my untrained eye. I watch the Bamas of the world walk multiple guys to the LOS and you never know who is coming. **** they will do it and then back em out at the snap all the time. We seem to bring one guy from quite a few yards back and its just to simple to pick up for teams. Very few instances where I can't tell when and who is going to blitz and I'm a guy on the couch. Seems like poor design to me.

+1. To me, there isn't any deception in our blitz packages, and they're quite bland. I've noticed that many of our blitzers are way off the line of scrimmage as well. But, my knowledge of x's and o's are quite limited so maybe I'm making this a bigger deal than it truly warrants.

Bama has a top 5 staff as well.

For further context, Fisch has about 10x the chance of being an NFL coordinator before D'Ono. It's disappointing to watch him fumble in Andy Reid fashion because he personally has a lot of talent as a play designer.

My biggest problem with Fisch is he goes away from what is working. That just drives me crazy...

 

[CaneDaddy]

I get the issue with talent but the way we blitz just seems poor from my untrained eye. I watch the Bamas of the world walk multiple guys to the LOS and you never know who is coming. **** they will do it and then back em out at the snap all the time. We seem to bring one guy from quite a few yards back and its just to simple to pick up for teams. Very few instances where I can't tell when and who is going to blitz and I'm a guy on the couch. Seems like poor design to me.

+1. To me, there isn't any deception in our blitz packages, and they're quite bland. I've noticed that many of our blitzers are way off the line of scrimmage as well. But, my knowledge of x's and o's are quite limited so maybe I'm making this a bigger deal than it truly warrants.

Bama has a top 5 staff as well.

For further context, Fisch has about 10x the chance of being an NFL coordinator before D'Ono. It's disappointing to watch him fumble in Andy Reid fashion because he personally has a lot of talent as a play designer.

My biggest problem with Fisch is he goes away from what is working. That just drives me crazy...

Disagree

 

[CaneRage]

Lu, you are a poster that I look to for much information about "our" team. I've been following the Cane's for more years than most on this board have been alive.... but still don't have the insight that I have read in yours and some other posters comments... and I'm no dummy. But on at least parts of your comments on this thread, if I am reading them right, I have to disagree with. And if I am reading your comments incorrectly, ten I apologize before you read this long post. You saying that Fisch has a bit more of a responsibility for this lose than Coach D just doesn't make sense to me. Taking away Duke's TD run and the safety, Fisch's offense put up 31 points.... and would have been at least 34, and maybe 38, if Morris hadn't fumbled. And even though many disagree with the play calling at the end (and I do to a degree), it's hard to argue with giving the ball to your best offensive threat, Duke, who was averaging over 10 yards a touch, not taking chances (although I would have supported it if he had) and penning Va. on it's own 11 (8?). Even with a bad defense, it's reasonable (although the D didn't show it all day) to think that a defense that has shown improvement over the last few weeks, playing against what is one of the worst scoring teams in the country, with under 3 minutes to play, should be able to stop Va. at some point along the drive. If Fisch had Morris come out throwing and we went 3 and out, or Morris had thrown an interception, we would have been all over him for that. And I know that no one on here is advocating 3 straight passes, just using that as an example. But how many points do we need to score to say it's the defense's fault? I guess the easy answer is at least 1 more than Va. did.... or to be able to run out the clock.... but that's not always possible. I think the majority of the coaches, even the successful ones, wouldn't have done much different than what we saw today. And would have been happy with their chances.... but I also think the successful defensive coaches, even with questionable talent, would have been more aggressive in the last drive. Or, seeing that we weren't stopping them and seeing our defense was tired, would have used time outs to try and save time on the clock so we would have sometime left to at least give Duke a chance at a reasonable run back and a hail Mary or two into the end zone. But we didn't do any of that. And I don't think that's on the offense....

 

[LuCane]

Lu, you are a poster that I look to for much information about "our" team. I've been following the Cane's for more years than most on this board have been alive.... but still don't have the insight that I have read in yours and some other posters comments... and I'm no dummy. But on at least parts of your comments on this thread, if I am reading them right, I have to disagree with. And if I am reading your comments incorrectly, ten I apologize before you read this long post.

You saying that Fisch has a bit more of a responsibility for this lose than Coach D just doesn't make sense to me. Taking away Duke's TD run and the safety, Fisch's offense put up 31 points.... and would have been at least 34, and maybe 38, if Morris hadn't fumbled. And even though many disagree with the play calling at the end (and I do to a degree), it's hard to argue with giving the ball to your best offensive threat, Duke, who was averaging over 10 yards a touch, not taking chances (although I would have supported it if he had) and penning Va. on it's own 11 (8?). Even with a bad defense, it's reasonable (although the D didn't show it all day) to think that a defense that has shown improvement over the last few weeks, playing against what is one of the worst scoring teams in the country, with under 3 minutes to play, should be able to stop Va. at some point along the drive. If Fisch had Morris come out throwing and we went 3 and out, or Morris had thrown an interception, we would have been all over him for that. And I know that no one on here is advocating 3 straight passes, just using that as an example.

But how many points do we need to score to say it's the defense's fault? I guess the easy answer is at least 1 more than Va. did.... or to be able to run out the clock.... but that's not always possible. I think the majority of the coaches, even the successful ones, wouldn't have done much different than what we saw today. And would have been happy with their chances.... but I also think the successful defensive coaches, even with questionable talent, would have been more aggressive in the last drive. Or, seeing that we weren't stopping them and seeing our defense was tired, would have used time outs to try and save time on the clock so we would have sometime left to at least give Duke a chance at a reasonable run back and a hail Mary or two into the end zone. But we didn't do any of that. And I don't think that's on the offense....

I put some spaces in there so I can answer accordingly. Thanks for the reply. I appreciate that kind of disagreement. Like I said, my view may be complete bunk. I'd like to discuss it.

(1) Not saying Fisch has more responsibility for the loss than D'Ono. I'm saying Fisch should have more of an onus to win us ballgames than D'Ono. I think that's actually on Golden. Further, I'm saying that what they're doing with what they're working with is actually not as far apart as people seem to glean from the results.

(2) I think it's a stretch to rely on the defense...for anything. And, that's pretty much the base of my view. I think they're a limited unit with a limited coordinator. I think the way the game was going was a clear sign that relying on them to get "lucky" with a dropped pass (they almost did) or overthrow or the like was atrocious strategy.

(3) I think the clear answer was to put the onus on our offense to not only get first downs after the safety, but to score. We literally and figuratively punted the outcome of the game to our defense. Therein lies what I think is completely ****ed on both Golden (moreso) and Fisch's parts.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

One way I quantify it is rushes per game. I mentioned that prior to the season, and my concern that Fisch simply wouldn't care about high number of rushes and all the cleansing it accomplishes.

Well, prior to today's game we were 119th out of 124 in rushes per game. And it's purely a self inflicted wound because we're averaging 4.37 yards per rush. None of the five teams below us average more than 3.19.

As I've mentioned, 74% of college games are won by the team with highest number of rushes. So when you spend the entire year losing that category best of luck in trying to overcome the stat and win a high percentage of games.

Last week was a comedy. Middle of the 4th quarter Virginia Tech led in rushes 46-13. That's not a typo. Then the Herald has the ignorant audacity to use a bold headline atop the sports page, "GROUND GAME..."

That was such a fluke win I wasn't overly distraught today. With a Fisch offense you can get any type of dispersion. We could just as easily gone out there the final two possessions and hit a big play on a flanker screen, like the Boston College game which evolved similarly. But if you're trying to run out the clock there are a couple of minor issues. The running game is not practiced. It's not a priority. It's 119th out of 124 in regularlty. You don't wear anybody out. Best of luck. Crapshoot.

Similar to other posters, I had trouble with two specific calls: I thought the first play of the second to last possession called for a run. You had a chance to assert yourself there. It was early enough that Virginia wouldn't sell out on a first down run. Instead, we got a tipped ball incompletion, energizing the crowd and opponent. The final possession started out well. Second down was almost a freebie but we blew it. On third down you had to be aggressive and throw the ball. Virginia still had two time outs and was certain to call one if you ran and didn't make it. In college football with all the clock stoppages there isn't a vast difference between 2:38 with one time out remaining instead of two.

Malcolm Lewis was our second most clever newcomer behind Duke, IMO. Losing him really hurt in games like this.

Until we run it 34-38 times per game on average, which is where a balanced warm weather offense should be, I can't fool myself and expect too much. It's like overlooking demographic shifts and thinking everything is swell.

The disgusting aspect was we led very late simultaneous to the Gators trailing very late. Yet there was the inescapable feeling both outcomes would reverse.

 

[LuCane]

One way I quantify it is rushes per game. I mentioned that prior to the season, and my concern that Fisch simply wouldn't care about high number of rushes and all the cleansing it accomplishes.

Well, prior to today's game we were 119th out of 124 in rushes per game. And it's purely a self inflicted wound because we're averaging 4.37 yards per rush. None of the five teams below us average more than 3.19.

As I've mentioned, 74% of college games are won by the team with highest number of rushes. So when you spend the entire year losing that category best of luck in trying to overcome the stat and win a high percentage of games.

Last week was a comedy. Middle of the 4th quarter Virginia Tech led in rushes 46-13. That's not a typo. Then the Herald has the ignorant audacity to use a bold headline atop the sports page, "GROUND GAME..."

That was such a fluke win I wasn't overly distraught today. With a Fisch offense you can get any type of dispersion. We could just as easily gone out there the final two possessions and hit a big play on a flanker screen, like the Boston College game which evolved similarly. But if you're trying to run out the clock there are a couple of minor issues. The running game is not practiced. It's not a priority. It's 119th out of 124 in regularlty. You don't wear anybody out. Best of luck. Crapshoot.

Similar to other posters, I had trouble with two specific calls: I thought the first play of the second to last possession called for a run. You had a chance to assert yourself there. It was early enough that Virginia wouldn't sell out on a first down run. Instead, we got a tipped ball incompletion, energizing the crowd and opponent. The final possession started out well. Second down was almost a freebie but we blew it. On third down you had to be aggressive and throw the ball. Virginia still had two time outs and was certain to call one if you ran and didn't make it. In college football with all the clock stoppages there isn't a vast difference between 2:38 with one time out remaining instead of two.

Malcolm Lewis was our second most clever newcomer behind Duke, IMO. Losing him really hurt in games like this.

Until we run it 34-38 times per game on average, which is where a balanced warm weather offense should be, I can't fool myself and expect too much. It's like overlooking demographic shifts and thinking everything is swell.

The disgusting aspect was we led very late simultaneous to the Gators trailing very late. Yet there was the inescapable feeling both outcomes would reverse.

Great post. Your last sentence illuminates the brutal nature of being a Canes fan these days.

 

[OMG618]

the sad thing is that the decisions to go conservative when you got ahead by being aggressive is so the wrong message to send your team, what you do is what chip kelly does and you ******* bury them when you have them down 10 in the 4th quarter...

Bingo. Like I've repeated, this one is scary to me because it flashed more about Golden than about any of his coordinators.
.

This IMO is today's biggest revelation and hence our biggest cause for concern, Golden was brain dead on the sideline. The lack of a killer instinct is one thing but just ignoring our defenders being gassed with 3 timeouts in tow and not pulling the trigger was a gigantic mistake. For one, like basketball, don't be afraid to break a qb's momentum when a timeout will not serve your offense (in a future possession) but also like basketball don't be afraid to see how the other team lines up for one of those two killer 4th down conversions.


My small critiques for the coordinators, for Fisch I didn't like the series prior to the safety (pass, run, pass) and overall I would still like to see more I-form/smash mouth. As for D, while it's unarguable we mixed it up today, I though in certain situations the timing was poor. Yes we blitzed on occassion but dropped everyone in the redzone on the final two possessions, giving Rocco time to count the house. Also when we do blitz I wish we'd disguise a bit better, UVA didn't have much problem picking up the free man.

Also can someone explain our love affair with stunting? Can't remember how many times we opened up lanes for their backs and qb to run. Didn't seem like the risk was providing much reward.

 

[Larry]

I <3 me some LuCane but that read like you are high as a kite bruh.

 

[jdmorgan76]

the problem with this type of conservative approach is that if you preach killer instinct and going after it and then in the crunch time in the biggest game of the season you send a psychological message of "let's just hold on" it affects the team and allowed the VA defense to get the momentum back for their team at the worst time....

it leads to doubts...

 

[CaneRage]

Awsi, thanks for the input. I didn't know we were ranked that low, anywhere near that low actually, although I knew we weren't balanced. And I agree that this is directly on Fisch... and even moreso with one of the most talented young running backs in the nation and a senior running back that plays with heart and is much more than servicable in his own right. Your comments depressing than I wanted to hear actually.... Great post and I am going to have to start adding you on my reading list so I can learn....

Lu, and I see and understand your point, but seriously, how many points do they have to score? How much time do they have to run off the clock? I know our talent and depth is weak, even more with the injuries and suspensions, but has our recruiting really been that bad? I mean, depth wise I knew it had been, but I thought we were still getting decent, solid players. And yeah, I haven't seen many playmakers in recruiting over the last few years, but we have to be better than this. When we are 113th in D, ****, we should be able to fall out of bed and recruit better players than that. So it brings me back to coaching.... and I am heavily leaning on the firing of D'ono, (don't expect it though), I do understand the importance of having a stable staff and players that are older and can help coach the older players.... plus a few playmakers sprinkled in here and there. And I know D'ono hasn't had that.... but still....

Of course, like any time you want someone fired, the question then becomes who do we get to replace him. I do believe that firing someone just to fire them is counter productive.... but there does become a point in time to do that. Is it now for D'ono? Maybe, maybe not.... but I do know it's not my call...

 

[LuCane]

I <3 me some LuCane but that read like you are high as a kite bruh.

If fury and frustration produce THC, that's probably the explanation. How it read aside, would like your view on what should be expected from Fisch and D'Ono, respectively.

 

[stormsurge]

On the rushes per game, is that by design or out of necessity? We can't rush Duke too many times or we get him banged up and lost so we got to keep his #s low. That essentially leaves Mike James. I don't see other viable options right now.

I am not disappointed by our coordinators. I truly believe they are trying to get around deficiencies as much as anything.

 

[Mico Jones]

I <3 me some LuCane but that read like you are high as a kite bruh.

If fury and frustration produce THC, that's probably the explanation. How it read aside, would like your view on what should be expected from Fisch and D'Ono, respectively.

I can answer that for No D Ofrio immediately. I expected him not to field the statisticall worst defense in University of Miami history which he is on his way to doing. There's no weighted average that can mask that result.

 

[Larry]

I <3 me some LuCane but that read like you are high as a kite bruh.

If fury and frustration produce THC, that's probably the explanation. How it read aside, would like your view on what should be expected from Fisch and D'Ono, respectively.

Individually...it is tough to really give you an idea of what I can expect from them, because separately each unit is underwhelming both schematically and by execution...but both units and coordinators are handcuffed a bit by what they have available. Both units, though, do themselves and each other no favors with subpar game calling and management. But, obviously, I expect more...because the product on the field is unacceptable, really. I don't even feel like sugarcoating it...there needs to be adjustments on both sides of the ball in numerous aspects and there just aren't and that is frustrating. They just keep doing the same thing with hope it'll work.

 

[Miami82]

I <3 me some LuCane but that read like you are high as a kite bruh.

If fury and frustration produce THC, that's probably the explanation. How it read aside, would like your view on what should be expected from Fisch and D'Ono, respectively.

Individually...it is tough to really give you an idea of what I can expect from them, because separately each unit is underwhelming both schematically and by execution...but both units and coordinators are handcuffed a bit by what they have available. Both units, though, do themselves and each other no favors with subpar game calling and management. But, obviously, I expect more...because the product on the field is unacceptable, really. I don't even feel like sugarcoating it...there needs to be adjustments on both sides of the ball in numerous aspects and there just aren't and that is frustrating. They just keep doing the same thing with hope it'll work.

This all day long.