Quantifying our Coordinators

[LuCane]

If neither of you have anything to say about the substance of the post or can substantively discuss football, I suggest you exit this thread and potentially this board. If you can't handle your emotions because of a loss, I suggest you head to the WEZ. First and last warning. This board is to discuss football. You disagree with the numbers or conclusion? Attack the substance.

What numbers? What conclusion?

You controlled the data, the variables, and the result. Crooked scientist if you ask me.

To be fair, like I gave the other guy, last chance before you're diverted to the WEZ. They can all be false, but they're up there for you to read.

Good luck.

 

[LuCane]

33 Carries for 233 yards. 7.1 per carry. It was clear after the 3rd quarter we were controlling the game via the run. At one point we ran on 5 straight first downs and the team was moving the ball well. We got away from that, then came back to it on our last possession. 3 straight runs on the UVa side of the field. After run number 2, we should have thrown it. Now, we didnt, but we still ran some clock by running it a 3rd time, and forced UVa to take a timeout. Ok.

The last drive. 16 plays 87 yards. We have 3 timeouts. there were 3 4th down conversions. Great time to take a timeout. Never did that. When they got it to first and goal, that was a good time to take a timeout. After howard broke up the pass with 11 seconds left, stopping the clock, great time to take a timeout. Didn't. The last play, rushing 3? Dropping a freaking DT into coverage? WHY? He proved over and over again he could rip apart our zone defense. Why sit back like that? Why not give him some pressure.

Do you agree that the offense is in a better position to win us a ball game than our defense?

 

[919Cane2DaGrave]

33 Carries for 233 yards. 7.1 per carry. It was clear after the 3rd quarter we were controlling the game via the run. At one point we ran on 5 straight first downs and the team was moving the ball well. We got away from that, then came back to it on our last possession. 3 straight runs on the UVa side of the field. After run number 2, we should have thrown it. Now, we didnt, but we still ran some clock by running it a 3rd time, and forced UVa to take a timeout. Ok.

The last drive. 16 plays 87 yards. We have 3 timeouts. there were 3 4th down conversions. Great time to take a timeout. Never did that. When they got it to first and goal, that was a good time to take a timeout. After howard broke up the pass with 11 seconds left, stopping the clock, great time to take a timeout. Didn't. The last play, rushing 3? Dropping a freaking DT into coverage? WHY? He proved over and over again he could rip apart our zone defense. Why sit back like that? Why not give him some pressure.

Do you agree that the offense is in a better position to win us a ball game than our defense?

both are too inconsistent. Both are costly and it changes week to week, one being worse than the other. And then today is the perfect storm of **** at the wrong times.

 

[LuCane]

33 Carries for 233 yards. 7.1 per carry. It was clear after the 3rd quarter we were controlling the game via the run. At one point we ran on 5 straight first downs and the team was moving the ball well. We got away from that, then came back to it on our last possession. 3 straight runs on the UVa side of the field. After run number 2, we should have thrown it. Now, we didnt, but we still ran some clock by running it a 3rd time, and forced UVa to take a timeout. Ok.

The last drive. 16 plays 87 yards. We have 3 timeouts. there were 3 4th down conversions. Great time to take a timeout. Never did that. When they got it to first and goal, that was a good time to take a timeout. After howard broke up the pass with 11 seconds left, stopping the clock, great time to take a timeout. Didn't. The last play, rushing 3? Dropping a freaking DT into coverage? WHY? He proved over and over again he could rip apart our zone defense. Why sit back like that? Why not give him some pressure.

Do you agree that the offense is in a better position to win us a ball game than our defense?

both are too inconsistent. Both are costly and it changes week to week, one being worse than the other. And then today is the perfect storm of **** at the wrong times.

See, that's where I complete disagree. I think the offense is in, by far, better position from a talent standpoint and a coordinator standpoint to lead us to victories. If that's the case, the onus HAS to be on them, during the actual game, to close out our victories. We cannot "punt" (figuratively and literally) in the hopes our defense comes up with a stop.

 

[LetsGoCanes]

The last drive. 16 plays 87 yards. We have 3 timeouts. there were 3 4th down conversions. Great time to take a timeout. Never did that. When they got it to first and goal, that was a good time to take a timeout. After howard broke up the pass with 11 seconds left, stopping the clock, great time to take a timeout. Didn't. The last play, rushing 3? Dropping a freaking DT into coverage? WHY? He proved over and over again he could rip apart our zone defense. Why sit back like that? Why not give him some pressure.

This is what boggles my mind... Golden definitely needed to call some time outs on that last drive to break the momentum. Personally, I would have called them prior to each fourth down and the first and goal. Get the defense composed, get them some air, and then call your most effective defense. There was absolutely no reason to save those timeouts.

 

[ssj4cane]

I get the issue with talent but the way we blitz just seems poor from my untrained eye. I watch the Bamas of the world walk multiple guys to the LOS and you never know who is coming. **** they will do it and then back em out at the snap all the time. We seem to bring one guy from quite a few yards back and its just to simple to pick up for teams. Very few instances where I can't tell when and who is going to blitz and I'm a guy on the couch. Seems like poor design to me.

 

[scrantoncane]

I am reading in my phone, but did I miss something? Lu, did you post what are essentially success percentages without explaining how you reached those numbers, and then warn 2 guys for questioning the results?

Dude, I appreciate your football iq and what you did starting these boards, but this thread is weak.

 

[Mico Jones]

With all due respect. This is the ops weakest post ever. Lets make up a bunch of percentages to excuse our poor coaching and ask everyone to comment on your fiction.

 

[919Cane2DaGrave]

33 Carries for 233 yards. 7.1 per carry. It was clear after the 3rd quarter we were controlling the game via the run. At one point we ran on 5 straight first downs and the team was moving the ball well. We got away from that, then came back to it on our last possession. 3 straight runs on the UVa side of the field. After run number 2, we should have thrown it. Now, we didnt, but we still ran some clock by running it a 3rd time, and forced UVa to take a timeout. Ok.

The last drive. 16 plays 87 yards. We have 3 timeouts. there were 3 4th down conversions. Great time to take a timeout. Never did that. When they got it to first and goal, that was a good time to take a timeout. After howard broke up the pass with 11 seconds left, stopping the clock, great time to take a timeout. Didn't. The last play, rushing 3? Dropping a freaking DT into coverage? WHY? He proved over and over again he could rip apart our zone defense. Why sit back like that? Why not give him some pressure.

Do you agree that the offense is in a better position to win us a ball game than our defense?

both are too inconsistent. Both are costly and it changes week to week, one being worse than the other. And then today is the perfect storm of **** at the wrong times.

See, that's where I complete disagree. I think the offense is in, by far, better position from a talent standpoint and a coordinator standpoint to lead us to victories. If that's the case, the onus HAS to be on them, during the actual game, to close out our victories. We cannot "punt" (figuratively and literally) in the hopes our defense comes up with a stop.

But the offense didnt get it done today. Neither did the defense. Against a sub-par team on the road. Look man...I like how you're trying to put a different perspective on it, by analyzing the numbers, I really do. I get it. But we just lost to a 3-6 team with some of the more bass ackwards decision making i've ever been privy to watching. Theres no amount of number crunching or convincing you can do to get me off this ledge. I'm gonna get outta this thread lol...I'm to ****ed to be reasonable.

 

[LuCane]

I am reading in my phone, but did I miss something? Lu, did you post what are essentially success percentages without explaining how you reached those numbers, and then warn 2 guys for questioning the results?

Dude, I appreciate your football iq and what you did starting these boards, but this thread is weak.

Scranton, no, I didn't and it would have made the post too long. I tried to keep it short by briefly explaining what I thought each unit is capable of (capacity) and what they're producing relative to that capacity. If you have another way to quantify and put in proper context, let's do it. I think it's even weaker to say or think "hey, one unit scored 31 (not 40) and the other allowed 41, so that unit is better/worse."

 

[LuCane]

33 Carries for 233 yards. 7.1 per carry. It was clear after the 3rd quarter we were controlling the game via the run. At one point we ran on 5 straight first downs and the team was moving the ball well. We got away from that, then came back to it on our last possession. 3 straight runs on the UVa side of the field. After run number 2, we should have thrown it. Now, we didnt, but we still ran some clock by running it a 3rd time, and forced UVa to take a timeout. Ok.

The last drive. 16 plays 87 yards. We have 3 timeouts. there were 3 4th down conversions. Great time to take a timeout. Never did that. When they got it to first and goal, that was a good time to take a timeout. After howard broke up the pass with 11 seconds left, stopping the clock, great time to take a timeout. Didn't. The last play, rushing 3? Dropping a freaking DT into coverage? WHY? He proved over and over again he could rip apart our zone defense. Why sit back like that? Why not give him some pressure.

Do you agree that the offense is in a better position to win us a ball game than our defense?

both are too inconsistent. Both are costly and it changes week to week, one being worse than the other. And then today is the perfect storm of **** at the wrong times.

See, that's where I complete disagree. I think the offense is in, by far, better position from a talent standpoint and a coordinator standpoint to lead us to victories. If that's the case, the onus HAS to be on them, during the actual game, to close out our victories. We cannot "punt" (figuratively and literally) in the hopes our defense comes up with a stop.

But the offense didnt get it done today. Neither did the defense. Against a sub-par team on the road. Look man...I like how you're trying to put a different perspective on it, by analyzing the numbers, I really do. I get it. But we just lost to a 3-6 team with some of the more bass ackwards decision making i've ever been privy to watching. Theres no amount of number crunching or convincing you can do to get me off this ledge. I'm gonna get outta this thread lol...I'm to ****ed to be reasonable.

I understand the offense didn't get it done today, but the point here is not to look at it on a game to game or drive to drive basis. It's really a matter of what we're doing over the course of a season. I can't imagine a scenario where it makes sense to put the onus on our current defense to win us a game.

 

[LuCane]

With all due respect. This is the ops weakest post ever. Lets make up a bunch of percentages to excuse our poor coaching and ask everyone to comment on your fiction.

I've actually been making those numbers for the season. It wasn't for convenience. It doesn't excuse coaching, since I've said at least 100 times that I don't agree with D'Ono's philosophy and I don't think we can ever expect him to be at the level of a "great" coordinator.

At the same time, again, I think it's obscene to look at the final score and say "this guy sucks, the other guy is good."

 

[919Cane2DaGrave]

Its very fair to make an assessment on a drive to drive basis. Some drives are more important than others, i.e. our last offensive possession and the final drive by vaginas. Thats winning time bro. Gotta be good in the clutch and make smart decisions.

 

[LuCane]

I get the issue with talent but the way we blitz just seems poor from my untrained eye. I watch the Bamas of the world walk multiple guys to the LOS and you never know who is coming. **** they will do it and then back em out at the snap all the time. We seem to bring one guy from quite a few yards back and its just to simple to pick up for teams. Very few instances where I can't tell when and who is going to blitz and I'm a guy on the couch. Seems like poor design to me.

Totally with this part. Have always been with this part, though. If we're expecting D'ono to turn into **** LeBeau, we're simply not being realistic.[h=3][/h]

 

[LuCane]

Its very fair to make an assessment on a drive to drive basis. Some drives are more important than others, i.e. our last offensive possession and the final drive by vaginas. Thats winning time bro. Gotta be good in the clutch and make smart decisions.

I meant it's unfair to look at it in terms of "this guy sucks, this guy is good." By your rationale, ****, then the game really is on Fisch (which I don't think it is completely). He had a CRAZY opportunity to close out the game after that Safety. He wasn't even consistent with what he's done all year.

 

[Shogungts]

ur made up equation doesnt mean ****. we lost to virginia. put that in your calculator and shove it.

And this is why this board is turning into every other Canes board; when someone who is level headed (after a win or a loss), he is crucified for not going with the 'we are the best ever' or the 'we are the worst ever' crowds depending on how the team played that day.

 

[919Cane2DaGrave]

Its very fair to make an assessment on a drive to drive basis. Some drives are more important than others, i.e. our last offensive possession and the final drive by vaginas. Thats winning time bro. Gotta be good in the clutch and make smart decisions.

I meant it's unfair to look at it in terms of "this guy sucks, this guy is good." By your rationale, ****, then the game really is on Fisch (which I don't think it is completely). He had a CRAZY opportunity to close out the game after that Safety. He wasn't even consistent with what he's done all year.

its on the entire staff. They didnt get it done. Golden, Fisch, D'Orch. Not one iota.

 

[Miami82]

If we just look at final results without context, I think we miss a significant part of the real story behind our progress, what we should expect and what we should do going forward.

I judge Coordinators and coaches by both in-game results (production) and final results (wins/losses), but I always try to put it in the context of what they're working with in terms of talent (and also judge their role in choosing and acquiring that talent). My understanding of what a coordinator should do is to maximize the capacity of the unit (made up of individual players) available. Therefore, here's what I did: I quantified what I believed each unit is capable of and then judge based on what they actually do (effectiveness).

Defense

If maximum effectiveness with our current talent/players on defense is a 68 out of 100, we're probably doing a 52 for the season, whereby we did a 62 last week and a 44 this week (given that we were missing 3 of our 4 best defenders).

Season = 76% capacity
Last week = 91% capacity
This week = 65% capacity

Offense

If maximum effectiveness with our current talent/players on offense is a 79 out of 100, we're probably doing a a 64 for the season, whereby we did a 55 last week and a 68 this week (given that we were missing our 2nd best WR, but points total was helped by special teams and a safety).

Season = 81% capacity
Last week = 70% capacity
This week = 86% capacity

Comparison

So, by these numbers (that I acknowledge I have calculated based on both subjective and objective data), I think our coordinators are doing their jobs at much closer rates of effectiveness than most fans would view on the surface. Fisch is doing more with more, and he's even being more effective in his % of capacity, but it's basically a B- vs. middle C.

Conclusion

My conclusion is that, based on these numbers, neither should be fired, but we have to demand that our coaches are at a consistent 85% and higher.

LU you would have to show how you weighted the capacity to have any discussion with substance.

 

[LuCane]

ur made up equation doesnt mean ****. we lost to virginia. put that in your calculator and shove it.

And this is why this board is turning into every other Canes board; when someone who is level headed (after a win or a loss), he is crucified for not going with the 'we are the best ever' or the 'we are the worst ever' crowds depending on how the team played that day.

And that's why we're going to clean this up. Listen, I ACKNOWLEDGED in the first post that it's an arbitrary way to quantify the coordinators and put some context behind the plain results. I expected to be challenged on it and start discussion on it. Maybe it's all bunk. That's cool, lol. But, I stand behind the fact that we're not putting what we're seeing in context.

 

[ethiocane8126]

I get the issue with talent but the way we blitz just seems poor from my untrained eye. I watch the Bamas of the world walk multiple guys to the LOS and you never know who is coming. **** they will do it and then back em out at the snap all the time. We seem to bring one guy from quite a few yards back and its just to simple to pick up for teams. Very few instances where I can't tell when and who is going to blitz and I'm a guy on the couch. Seems like poor design to me.

+1. To me, there isn't any deception in our blitz packages, and they're quite bland. I've noticed that many of our blitzers are way off the line of scrimmage as well. But, my knowledge of x's and o's are quite limited so maybe I'm making this a bigger deal than it truly warrants.