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Quantifying our Coordinators

LuCane

LuCane

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If we just look at final results without context, I think we miss a significant part of the real story behind our progress, what we should expect and what we should do going forward.

I judge Coordinators and coaches by both in-game results (production) and final results (wins/losses), but I always try to put it in the context of what they're working with in terms of talent (and also judge their role in choosing and acquiring that talent). My understanding of what a coordinator should do is to maximize the capacity of the unit (made up of individual players) available. Therefore, here's what I did: I quantified what I believed each unit is capable of and then judge based on what they actually do (effectiveness).

Defense

If maximum effectiveness with our current talent/players on defense is a 68 out of 100, we're probably doing a 52 for the season, whereby we did a 62 last week and a 44 this week (given that we were missing 3 of our 4 best defenders).

Season = 76% capacity
Last week = 91% capacity
This week = 65% capacity

Offense

If maximum effectiveness with our current talent/players on offense is a 79 out of 100, we're probably doing a a 64 for the season, whereby we did a 55 last week and a 68 this week (given that we were missing our 2nd best WR, but points total was helped by special teams and a safety).

Season = 81% capacity
Last week = 70% capacity
This week = 86% capacity

Comparison

So, by these numbers (that I acknowledge I have calculated based on both subjective and objective data), I think our coordinators are doing their jobs at much closer rates of effectiveness than most fans would view on the surface. Fisch is doing more with more, and he's even being more effective in his % of capacity, but it's basically a B- vs. middle C.

Conclusion

My conclusion is that, based on these numbers, neither should be fired, but we have to demand that our coaches are at a consistent 85% and higher.
 
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You're like an egg-head economist using skewed #s and confusion to convince people the economy is getting better even though the debt is at 16 trillion and climbing.
 
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If neither of you have anything to say about the substance of the post or can substantively discuss football, I suggest you exit this thread and potentially this board. If you can't handle your emotions because of a loss, I suggest you head to the WEZ. First and last warning. This board is to discuss football. You disagree with the numbers or conclusion? Attack the substance.
 
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I'm more critical of Fisch than Coach D on the bases that he has more to work with but i still say he can be a really good OC. I still don't get how people can judge Coach D with who he has to work with. We've seen progress the last few weeks.
 
Lu,

I mean, how are you creating these "capacity" numbers? What's our national rank on defense? Definitely in the bottom 20%. You think our defensive talent is THAT bad? Isn't there also something to be said about using schemes to make the sum of the parts better than the individual inputs? I don't see that happening here. That's my concern.
 
Fisch makes horrible play calls in crucial situations. 2nd to last possession the d cant be looking run run run, and we throw on 1st and 3rd downs. Last possession the d knows run run run is most likely coming and that's exactly what we do. We gashed them all day when they weren't sure if it was run or pass. If he was gonna run run run, the 2nd to last possession was the time to do it. That is 100% on him. He needs to go IMHO.
 
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mapcane said:
Lu,

I mean, how are you creating these "capacity" numbers? What's our national rank on defense? Definitely in the bottom 20%. You think our defensive talent is THAT bad? Isn't there also something to be said about using schemes to make the sum of the parts better than the individual inputs? I don't see that happening here. That's my concern.
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Two ways:

(1) Our talent and what I expect(ed) of the defense. I expected to be a middle to low nationally ranked defense with some athletes. Ironically, all of you know I'm so far philosophically from what D'ono does that it probably seems insane that it looks like I'm defending him to some degree. I just have seen what happens when we try the alternative. We played man today at times. We've played zone. We blitzed. We dropped. We were ****ed either way. Today, for instance, we tried both with some really low-level players or just guys too young to make a difference.

(2) Yes. I've said our defensive line (without Porter) is the worst here (right now, not when they grow into men 2-3 years from now) in 20+ years. Our LBs are either babies or simply awful. Some of the Safeties who play A LOT for us would never see the field on one of our past teams. Many of them can get better, but they're either very limited or very young.

(Bonus) Yes, there's a lot to be said about creating a unit that is greater than the sum of its parts. That's part of D'Ono's job. I don't think he's very good at it. I don't think he'll ever be an innovator. My stance is that I'd do it differently than he does. But, he's in a very tough place without a defensive line. I'd still live and die by the blitz, but the point here is that people are looking at the final numbers out of context.
 
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Good post Lu. That said I wouldn't trust D'Onofrio or Fisch to sort ******* mail, let alone be coordinators of a BCS school.
 
919Cane2DaGrave said:
Let me rephrase....Your made up formula is irrelevent.
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Last chance in this thread, hoss. I'm a lenient dude, but it's been a bad day and I want to talk football. If you don't want to contribute to that in this thread or on this board, your options are fairly straightforward. If you know anything about football, chip in. You might surprise yourself or one of us.
 
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the sad thing is that the decisions to go conservative when you got ahead by being aggressive is so the wrong message to send your team, what you do is what chip kelly does and you ******* bury them when you have them down 10 in the 4th quarter...
 
LuCane said:
If neither of you have anything to say about the substance of the post or can substantively discuss football, I suggest you exit this thread and potentially this board. If you can't handle your emotions because of a loss, I suggest you head to the WEZ. First and last warning. This board is to discuss football. You disagree with the numbers or conclusion? Attack the substance.
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What numbers? What conclusion?

You controlled the data, the variables, and the result. Crooked scientist if you ask me.
 
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33 Carries for 233 yards. 7.1 per carry. It was clear after the 3rd quarter we were controlling the game via the run. At one point we ran on 5 straight first downs and the team was moving the ball well. We got away from that, then came back to it on our last possession. 3 straight runs on the UVa side of the field. After run number 2, we should have thrown it. Now, we didnt, but we still ran some clock by running it a 3rd time, and forced UVa to take a timeout. Ok.

The last drive. 16 plays 87 yards. We have 3 timeouts. there were 3 4th down conversions. Great time to take a timeout. Never did that. When they got it to first and goal, that was a good time to take a timeout. After howard broke up the pass with 11 seconds left, stopping the clock, great time to take a timeout. Didn't. The last play, rushing 3? Dropping a freaking DT into coverage? WHY? He proved over and over again he could rip apart our zone defense. Why sit back like that? Why not give him some pressure.
 
LuCane said:
If neither of you have anything to say about the substance of the post or can substantively discuss football, I suggest you exit this thread and potentially this board. If you can't handle your emotions because of a loss, I suggest you head to the WEZ. First and last warning. This board is to discuss football. You disagree with the numbers or conclusion? Attack the substance.
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+1. Get rid of all these guys or start a Premium board where we can talk football.
 
jdmorgan76 said:
the sad thing is that the decisions to go conservative when you got ahead by being aggressive is so the wrong message to send your team, what you do is what chip kelly does and you ******* bury them when you have them down 10 in the 4th quarter...
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Bingo. Like I've repeated, this one is scary to me because it flashed more about Golden than about any of his coordinators.

If we were already a team built in the way Golden envisions, I understand more. I understand "we're all in this together and trust each other...let's punt and let the defense win it for us." But, every single poster on this board sees what our defense and defensive coordinator are capable of. In basketball, it'd be like holding the ball to 4 corners to shoot free throws, except your two guards absolutely suck at free throws. It was just poor in-game strategy.
 
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