Proof of Randomness in College Baseball

[Jaromir Jagr]

My argument is that Jim Morris can't do squat in the post-season

Which is an obviously silly claim for one of the greatest postseason coaches in the game.

Here is the breakdown for the past decade:

29 wins 24 losses (.547)

Record vs. #1 seeds: 3-12 (.200) We have not won a game against a #1 seed since 2008.
Record vs. #2 seeds: 4-6 (.400)
Record vs. #3 seeds: 13-5 (.722)
Record vs. #4 seeds: 9-1 (.900)

Home: 21-8 (.724)
Away: 0-7 (.000)
Neutral: 8-9 (.471) - Six of the eight neutral site wins were against 3/4 seeds in regionals that we ultimately lost.

 

[Doppelganger]

They were one of the best teams.

No they weren't.

You just play the result and claim that everything that happens in June is representative.

You've now done this with 2017 Florida and 2015 Virginia.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

So even though you established the context of "best team" being based on regular season records, you're now going to debate the use of "best team" when I use regular season records.

No, again, I was correcting you.

You were very careful to say regular season earlier. I was keeping you to that standard.

I said regular season because that's the records I'm using and that's how YOU determine "best teams". Choose your battles.

 

[Doppelganger]

When Miami got lucky we showed up in Omaha and peed ourselves.

National seed Miami did not get lucky.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

They were one of the best teams.

No they weren't.

You just play the result and claim that everything that happens in June is representative.

You've now done this with 2017 Florida and 2015 Virginia.

Yes, I have done that with the teams that have the best programs over the course of a decade and SHOCKINGLY win in Omaha.

Except Miami and Louisville.

 

[Doppelganger]

When Virginia "got lucky" they won the whole thing.

So their luck allowed them to complete a fluke.

But this is "putting it all together" in your words.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

When Miami got lucky we showed up in Omaha and peed ourselves.

National seed Miami did not get lucky.

Anytime Jim Morris can avoid playing an equal or higher seed, the man is lucky. And even then there is no guarantee.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

When Virginia "got lucky" they won the whole thing.

So their luck allowed them to complete a fluke.

But this is "putting it all together" in your words.

Yes it is. When you have a tough start and a strong finish, that's putting it all together. Not the first time in sports history.

At Miami, though, we just play to our seed. We're not about to pull off any upsets. Not us. Not with our great post-season manager.

 

[Doppelganger]

One thing though: Virginia beat a higher seed twice in their regional.

And they've more than made up for it with their many, many losses to lower seeds in other years. Apparently O'Connor didn't have stories to compensate for those particular seasons.

They lost at home to Oklahoma in the Super Regional (2010)
They lost at home to Appalachian State and Oklahoma in the Regional (2012)
They lost at home to Mississippi State in the Super Regional (2013)
They lost at home to East Carolina and William & Mary in the Regional (2016)

I think in his 14 years he's lost home Regionals and Super Regionals like 6 times.

Yo're just incapable of saying that something is a fluke or that there's not order to every outcome.

 

[Doppelganger]

He gets to tell that story because he doesn't accept "playing to his seed".

He gets to tell that story because saps like you buy into coachspeak.

And you're right about the seed thing. Unfortunately for O'Connor, he's more likely to play under his seed than to it or over it.

 

[Doppelganger]

And we've been there twice in nine years, with woeful results. What exactly is the argument?

That you're proclaiming South Carolina as one of the "best" who win all the games in Omaha when they've only reached there 3 times in 14 years.

 

[Doppelganger]

Right, 2001. We haven't used that one in a while.

So now you're back to one-off's and the national championship or bust standard.

A while, indeed.

 

[Doppelganger]

Here is the breakdown for the past decade:

29 wins 24 losses (.547)

Record vs. #1 seeds: 3-12 (.200) We have not won a game against a #1 seed since 2008.
Record vs. #2 seeds: 4-6 (.400)
Record vs. #3 seeds: 13-5 (.722)
Record vs. #4 seeds: 9-1 (.900)

Home: 21-8 (.724)
Away: 0-7 (.000)
Neutral: 8-9 (.471) - Six of the eight neutral site wins were against 3/4 seeds in regionals that we ultimately lost.

Then don't say can't when talking about Jim Morris and the postseason. Just say hasn't (in a particular hand-picked period).

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

One thing though: Virginia beat a higher seed twice in their regional.

And they've more than made up for it with their many, many losses to lower seeds in other years. Apparently O'Connor didn't have stories to compensate for those particular seasons.

They lost at home to Oklahoma in the Super Regional (2010)
They lost at home to Appalachian State and Oklahoma in the Regional (2012)
They lost at home to Mississippi State in the Super Regional (2013)
They lost at home to East Carolina and William & Mary in the Regional (2016)

I think in his 14 years he's lost home Regionals and Super Regionals like 6 times.

Yo're just incapable of saying that something is a fluke or that there's not order to every outcome.

There you go making new arguments again. The point was that the best regular season teams of the decade also have won the most games in Omaha. Do you want to change it to Brian O'Connor's regional record?

You're just incapable of saying that Jim Morris has ****ed away the post-season for 16 years at a once proud program.

 

[Doppelganger]

I said regular season because that's the records I'm using and that's how YOU determine "best teams". Choose your battles.

And then you didn't say regular season in the post I quoted.

Again, trying to keep a dishonest person honest.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

He gets to tell that story because he doesn't accept "playing to his seed".

He gets to tell that story because saps like you buy into coachspeak.

And you're right about the seed thing. Unfortunately for O'Connor, he's more likely to play under his seed than to it or over it.

Except when he's getting to the CWS finals and winning it. But WE have the great post-season manager.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

And we've been there twice in nine years, with woeful results. What exactly is the argument?

That you're proclaiming South Carolina as one of the "best" who win all the games in Omaha when they've only reached there 3 times in 14 years.

Much better to go twice in nine years and win one game than three times in 14 years and win it twice.

 

[Doppelganger]

Yes it is. When you have a tough start and a strong finish, that's putting it all together.

Classic playing the result.

A 50-win Miami team should be ashamed for only going 1-2 in Omaha but a 44-win team that lucked out and won a fluke gets to claim that they "put it all together" at the end.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Right, 2001. We haven't used that one in a while.

So now you're back to one-off's and the national championship or bust standard.

A while, indeed.

If you're going to say that Jim Morris is a great post-season manager, you have to include 2001. No way around it. Knocking off Virginia Commonwealth doesn't count as "great".

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Then don't say can't when talking about Jim Morris and the postseason. Just say hasn't (in a particular hand-picked period).

It's better to say he can't, because saying he hasn't just means he had the chance and failed. Thanks for agreeing.