My preliminary analysis is in. I don't think I'm going to dig much deeper than this like I would in the past. I'm much more burnt out and I think its going to be much more difficult to find a DC this cycle. The big programs have the best DCs statistically. My numbers brought back Ohio State, Penn State, Texas, MD, Oregon, Alabama, Ole Miss, etc all in the top 15 and they're all paid close to or above $2M so it's not realistic. Maybe Ohio State gives Day the axe for whatever stupid reason and we could luck into Jim Knowles.
Strictly based on my analysis I got it down to 2 proven DCs and didn't include guys at programs where it's not realistic to poach:
1. Scott Symons - SMU DC - When looking at the last 2 seasons I was shocked to find him come in at number 5 overall on my collection of data. SMU as a team was 7th but teams ahead (Penn State and Michigan) had different coordinators between the 2 years. Diaz and Jesse Minter dropped off the list and the current DC at each program was behind Symons.
2. Bryant Haines - Indiana DC - Insane jumps at Indiana in year 1 across the board. Every category I considered he improved. I question their opponents but he's been great dating back to JMU. 4 or 5 consecutive top 10 defenses there too.
3. Nick Benedetto - NIU DC - Tried to limit it to P5 DCs but the numbers from him just stuck out and were hard to ignore. Top 15 across the board and has multiple years in a row of strong data and still improving on it. Rush defense is strong, pass D is strong, gets sacks and turnovers, limits points, and very good on 3rd down
Other P5 candidates
1. Brad White - Kentucky DC - Always going to be on my list. One of my favorite DCs in CFB
2. Clayton White - South Carolina DC - Data in 2024 was elite. Took him a little while to build up to it but I'm guessing they finally got the talent they needed there. Played a good schedule so nothing fluky about it.
For reference - Miami and Guidry came in around the 32nd. Mostly driven by strong yards per rush allowed numbers - 3.5 and 3.8 the last 2 years - roughly top 20 DC in that category. Honestly, everything else from points per game, sack %, yards per pass attempt, etc hovered around the 30-45 range. Better than I expected except for obviously the explosive plays.