Next year could be ugly

More talented and interesting roster but with uncertainty at quarterback and losses in the offensive line it probably shakes out as only marginally improved. I'm hoping for 7 points up in the power ratings at season's end but that's unlikely.

Our over/under will probably be 8.5 with juice on the over, or 9 with juice on the under.
 
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Ah, OK. My bad. The turnovers were definitely improved, which certainly should help with PPG (and did).

That said, yards per game was 443 for the first 4 ACC games, and 424 for the last 4 ACC games, first downs were 20.5 and 18, and 3rd down conversion % was 44 and 33...so, my point remains valid that they didn't necessarily improve as the ACC season went on, especially for 3rd down conversions. I think you're correct to point out the turnovers, which is clearly the main reason for the improved PPG. In the end, points is what matters most, and they got better with that, but converting 3rd downs at a 1-in-3 clip isn't doing the already crappy defense any favors.

I hear what your saying about yards and 3rd down conversion etc.

Like I have said before, I am a results guy. I want the offense to score points, I want the defense to keep points off the board. As long as we're scoring points on offense, I don't care how it is done. I don't care if we score on the first play of every drive. I don't care if we score after long drives. I don't care about "chunk" plays resulting in TDs. As long as the offense is scoring, I am happy. My second concern for the offense is turnovers. If the offense is not on the field, the offense cannot score points.

Another thing that occurred was the FG kicking improved. Goudis was 4/7 during the first four games, 7/7 in the last four games. Those are 9 extra points that result in 2.25 PPG increase.

In the end, turnovers were cut in half in ACC over the last 4 games. FG kicking improved. We're up almost 6 points per game (about a 25% increase).
 
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Ah, OK. My bad. The turnovers were definitely improved, which certainly should help with PPG (and did).

That said, yards per game was 443 for the first 4 ACC games, and 424 for the last 4 ACC games, first downs were 20.5 and 18, and 3rd down conversion % was 44 and 33...so, my point remains valid that they didn't necessarily improve as the ACC season went on, especially for 3rd down conversions. I think you're correct to point out the turnovers, which is clearly the main reason for the improved PPG. In the end, points is what matters most, and they got better with that, but converting 3rd downs at a 1-in-3 clip isn't doing the already crappy defense any favors.

I hear what your saying about yards and 3rd down conversion etc.

Like I have said before, I am a results guy. I want the offense to score points, I want the defense to keep points off the board. As long as we're scoring points on offense, I don't care how it is done. I don't care if we score on the first play of every drive. I don't care if we score after long drives. I don't care about "chunk" plays resulting in TDs. As long as the offense is scoring, I am happy. My second concern for the offense is turnovers. If the offense is not on the field, the offense cannot score points.

Another thing that occurred was the FG kicking improved. Goudis was 4/7 during the first four games, 7/7 in the last four games. Those are 9 extra points that result in 2.25 PPG increase.

In the end, turnovers were cut in half in ACC over the last 4 games. FG kicking improved. We're up almost 6 points per game (about a 25% increase).

Good point on Goudis. Anyway, yeah, I agree with the basic point of scoring points, but I also think that the offense helps (or hurts) the defense, and vice versa. As one goes, often goes the other. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of how well (or poorly) the defense did after the offense went 3 and out or turned the ball over, versus getting a few first downs, scoring, flipping the field, etc. I'm guessing that this defense was bad in all situations, so it may not matter.
 
IMO , I think we get better by some of the subtraction . I've heard a few things that make me optimistic the we will have a new DC . My only real concern is DT like it has been for 10 yrs .
 
I see us going about 6-6 next year. Still no defense and breaking in a new QB. ****, we could and probably should have lost to UF, Wake and UNC this year. Pitt played awful and we only beat them by 10. Hope I am wrong, but this year did not show me any signs of us improving at all.

I don't think Golden can survive a 6 - 6 season in his 4th year
 
Good point on Goudis. Anyway, yeah, I agree with the basic point of scoring points, but I also think that the offense helps (or hurts) the defense, and vice versa. As one goes, often goes the other. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of how well (or poorly) the defense did after the offense went 3 and out or turned the ball over, versus getting a few first downs, scoring, flipping the field, etc. I'm guessing that this defense was bad in all situations, so it may not matter.

As to the part in bold, that is a separate issue. I agree that it could help our defense if our offense is on the field more (i.e. higher 3rd down percentage, more completions, less TOs).

As to the underlined part, in examining just the VT and Duke games. It seems, at least IMO, that our defense did something positive (like force a punt) but we screwed up and we're unable to stop them the second time.


Here is what happened.

VT (First Half)

Virginia Tech at 14:54 [First Possession of the Game]
8 Plays but VT punts

Miami (FL) at 12:20 [Our First Possession of the Game]
We score a TD on that short pass to Coley [2 Plays]

Virginia Tech at 11:35
We force a 3 and out but......Coley fumbles the punt return and they get the ball back. They went on to score 5 plays later.

On the kickoff, Artie Burns fumbles the ball at the VT 49. [Miami has no offensive possession]

Virginia Tech at 7:26
They score 5 plays later after one of the craziest fumbles (thanks Jenkins for not diving on the ball).

Miami (FL) at 5:12 [Our Second Offensive Possession]
After 8 plays, we punt the ball

Virginia Tech at 1:56
After 5 plays, they punt the ball

Miami (FL) at 14:51 [2nd Quarter]
After 3 plays we punt the ball, this is when O'Donnell downed the ball at our 17 yard line

Virginia Tech at 13:30
They score a TD, we're down 21-7

Miami (FL) at 13:01
After 10 plays, we score a TD 21-14

Virginia Tech at 8:30
They score on the 11 play of the drive. We had them on a long 3rd down (3rd and 17 at MIA 32), we miss 2-3 tackles that would be short of the first down and they score a TD 28-14.

Miami (FL) at 2:58
3 and Out

Virginia Tech at 1:37
3 and Out

Miami (FL) at 0:59
3 and Out, we punt and it goes to halftime (after LT kneels the ball)

Duke (First Half)

Miami (FL) at 14:49 [First Possession]
After 10 plays, we kick a FG. Unable to convert at the Duke 15 (2nd and 5, 3rd and 5)

Duke at 10:27 [Duke's FP]
We force 3 and out, they punt and Coley returns for a TD. 10-0

Duke at 9:33
They score a TD after 11 plays, 10-7

Miami (FL) at 6:22
After 11 plays, we score a TD. 17-7

Duke at 2:01
After 6 plays, we force a punt. This is the turning point to me when we could have ripped it open. We scored on our first 2 possessions and on a return. If we score a FG here we're up 13 early.

Miami (FL) at 0:10 [which leads us to the 2nd Quarter]
The problem on this drive was the penalties. 2 Holds and a Block in the Back for us,which totals 30 yards. We still overcome them and convert 2 first downs. On 3rd and 4 at the Miami 49, Morris is intercepted. Worst case scenario is we don't convert and punt. Instead they get the ball at the Duke 48 (similar to our two turnovers in the VT game).

Duke at 10:34
After 6 plays, they score a TD 17-14.

Miami (FL) at 9:02
Even though we haven't punted, our offense was doing pretty well. On this drive we're able to drive the ball to the Duke 8 yard line, first and goal. We end with a FG.
1st and Goal at DUKE 8: Incomplete past to Herb Waters
2nd and Goal at DUKE 8: Morris is sacked for a loss of 2 yards but in the process gets a 15 yard penalty. (At least if it is 3rd and Goal from the 10, there is a chance).

At this point in the game, we have not punted. We had 2 long drives result in 2 FGs and we're up 20-14

Duke at 4:42
After 10 plays, they score a TD 21-20

We get the ball and punt, they get the ball and the half is over.
 
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Realistically, this can't all be D'onofrio's fault. He's the first to blame and all that but with players like Highsmith and Rodgers still on the field it's hard to win games.
 
Realistically, this can't all be D'onofrio's fault. He's the first to blame and all that but with players like Highsmith and Rodgers still on the field it's hard to win games.
And Armbrister, Robinson, Green, Cornelius.

I think this unit was maxed out production wise. No scheme no nothing would have improved the results.

The onus was on the offense to produce more which they were more then capable of doing.. They didn't maximize their potential and left a lot of points and time on the board.
 
Pessimistic much? If Duke isn't healthy we likely have some major talent entering campus at RB. If you have an issue with a (RS) QB, then maybe play the SR QB with game exp? As others have stated, offense will not be the issue just like it wasn't back in 2011.

With a Frosh QB. Duke returning from injury. 3 experienced talented starters gone from the OL. Our best Dts & LB leaving.

Plus few studs waiting in the wings.

QB - Olsen
RB - Duke)if healthy)
FB - Tucker
OT - Flowers
OG - Feliciano
C - McDermott
OG - Isidora?
OT - Bunche?
TE - Walford
WR - Dorsett
WR - Coley
WR - Waters

DE/OLB - Muhammed?
DT - Pierre
NT - Wyche?
DE - Chickillo?
OLB - Armbrister
MLB - Kirby?
OLB - Figueroa?
CB - Gunter
CB - Howard
S - Bush
S - Jenkins

K - Goudis
P - ?


Do you see us getting better?
 
If we land Cook and Yearby along with Duke we'll have one of the best RB units in the nation. Granted defense still sucks but hopefully we can score 100 points a game.
 
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My take on the situation:

Defensively, we were slow this year. Not sure slow for Miami, but slow period. You didn't see DB's put their foot in the ground and break on a pass hardly ever. Most of our interceptions were due to passes being tipped or overthrows of open receivers. Our LB's were not just poor at tackling, they were also not explosive. Perryman is a good athlete, but he's not elite, and Gaines and Cornelius are not players who should be on the field for a UM defense. I know we are improving with McCord and Muhammed but the rest of the line runs in quicksand. Our S play was just an abomination all season long.

Getting Gaines, Rodgers and Green off the field will be addition by subtraction. I understand we didn't have players beat them out this year, but removing them as options will help us take a step forward there. The players behind those players are at least capable athletes and I feel like while we lose our best DT's they made few impact plays in my mind. The guys behind them are probably JAG's as well, but I think the young recruits can at least help in a rotation next year.

This defense gave up 500+ repeatedly...we lose some players from that defense, so what?

Losing Morris doesn't bother me at all, as I am quite sure we can replace what he gave us this year, even if we have to move to more of a rhythm short passing offense rather than the hit deep shots or nothing offense we have now.
 
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