Myth Busters: Lack of QB Play

[jdg3158]

For us to contend this year we need good QB play.

1. We need Beck healthy and we need a backup portal QB.

2. Great post @Rellyrell

3. You cannot replace game experience and totally agree with @DMoney. Kids that get more playing time and have more experience tend to perform better. Take high upside kids out of HS with traits but don’t waste the bank on pure 5 stars. The way NIL and Portal are going - there are some really good guys who have good experience from lower schools who can do really well here. IMO our biggest selling point is the OL will always have Dudes. It’s a focal point at Miami and you give a kid an extra half second to a second who can sling it and has confidence - that will be massive.

 

[252cane]

Don’t mean to change the subject from qb play but We have been lacking at several positions that’s the problem. Since wilfork went 1st round in 04 miami has only had 5 DTs drafted and none of them were higher than the 4th round.

Qb play hasn’t been good enough to make up for the problems that was surrounding them

 

[SPFRcane]

Excellent analysis Rell! Coaching has been our biggest issue.

....and the administration!!! The powers that be has to understand football is king and without it you are just a school of higher learning.

 

[CANESCANES]

Experience is huge. Daniels and Nix were two of the most experienced players in CFB history (because of the Covid year) and they both thrived in the NFL right away.

That's why I'm bullish on Cam Ward in the NFL (64 college starts) and optimistic about Carson Beck in Year 6 of his college career.

Dabos best years were when he had Deshaun Watson and then Trevor Lawrence where they played in 4 National Championships in 5 years

Watson was rated as a 5 star on Rivals, Lawrence was a 5 star, and Cade Klubnik was also a 5 star, so Dabo understands the importance of recruiting 5 star QBs

DJ Ugly was also a 5 star but he obviously didn’t work out

 

[CANESCANES]

And how WR recruiting effects or could effect CB recruiting… 5*s want to play with 5*s.

I listened to two interviews recently with Derek Stingley Jr and PS2 and both said the same thing….

Going against Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase and Terrance Marshall for Stingley… Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Waddle and DeVonte Smith for PS2 EVERYDAY made them better corners. Every rep was important, no light days, no light reps everybody is good. It makes you better.

Elite players want to play with elite players, that’s a fact

Iron sharpens iron

 

[Rellyrell]

I thought this year put this debate to bed, but let's do it again.

The Top 5 QBs in this draft are from the Portal: Ward, Sanders, Dart, Shough, Ewers. Not some of the top five- ALL of the top five.

Last year, four out of the Top 6 (Williams, Daniels, Penix, Nix) were from the Portal.

If you look at the top QBs in the NFL, they are almost exclusively three-star QBs (Jackson, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Love, Prescott) or Portal players (Daniels, Burrow, Hurts).

To me, the formula seems pretty obvious- save your money on HS QBs and spend big on the Portal.

That doesn't mean grabbing guys like Emory and Judd. I was against both evaluations in the old threads (see here and here). But we should be focusing on boom-or-bust traits that can hit big: multisport athleticism, huge arms, playmaking instincts. If the cheaper HS QB doesn't develop, just move on to the next one and keep working the Portal.

And the Portal isn't just about proven stars like Ward and Beck. We can also grab faded blue-chippers with traits (think Nix, Daniels, Dante Moore) and develop them with a better OL.

The reason championship teams usually have blue-chip QBs is because they're already the blue-blood programs- they sign blue chips everywhere, and their commitments get ratings bumps. That doesn't mean they always sign the best QBs.

By the way, even that point is obsolete in the Portal era. The championship game this year was between two HS three stars who transferred (Will Howard and Riley Leonard). Of the past six champions, four won with transfers ('19 LSU, '21-'22 UGA, '24 OSU) and another was a three-star signee (Mac Jones). The only blue-chipper (JJ McCarthy) barely passed and relied on a tough and physical supporting cast.

Save the money on overpriced HS arms. Bet big on traits in high school and spend big in the Portal.

If u noticed, I included re-evaluated QBs in the portal that were now deemed 4*. However, I’m still iffy relying strictly on the portal b/c football is a contact sport. What if that portal QB gets injured & their replacement is….Emory Williams? What if u can’t secure a portal QB b/c the asking price is too high? What if the portal rankings r simply based upon the caliber of QB in the portal?

So I’m of the opinion that both should be utilized judiciously for today & tomorrow.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

If u noticed, I included re-evaluated QBs in the portal that were now deemed 4*. However, I’m still iffy relying strictly on the portal b/c football is a contact sport. What if that portal QB gets injured & their replacement is….Emory Williams? What if u can’t secure a portal QB b/c the asking price is too high? What if the portal rankings r simply based upon the caliber of QB in the portal?

So I’m of the opinion that both should be utilized judiciously for today & tomorrow.

Gonna have to hijack your thread for a minute here, but I think its probably a good place to post this (repost from January).

The portal reset the QB market initially, but things appear to have leveled out. Top teams didn't need to go to the portal for their QB this year for a **** good reason:

The majority of them will be going with guys they signed out of high school.

1 Ohio State: - Sayin* / Kienholz / St. Clair - signed out of high school
2 Notre Dame: Angeli/Carr - signed out of high school
3 Oregon: - transfer
4 Texas: Manning - signed out of high school
5 Penn State: Allar - signed out of high school
6 UGA: Stockton - signed out of high school
7 Arizona State: - transfer
8 Boise: Madsen - signed out of high school
9 Tennessee: Nico - signed out of high school
10 Indiana: - transfer

*If Sayin wins the job, technically he was a transfer. BUT he "transferred" as a true freshman, 11 days after enrolling at Alabama. So..

11 Ole Miss: Simmons - signed out of high school
12 SMU: Jennings - signed out of high school
13 BYU: - JUCO**
14 Clemson: Klubnik - signed out of high school
15 Iowa State: Becht - signed out of high school
16 Illinois - transfer
17 Alabama: Ty Simpson - signed out of high school
18 Miami - transfer
19 South Carolina: Sellers - signed out of high school
20 Syracuse: transfer

**BYU is the only team above the JUCO level that Retzlaff has ever played for.

Currently unranked teams likely to be in the preseason top 25:

LSU: Nussmeier - signed out of high school
UF: Lagway - signed out of high school
Texas A&M: Reed - signed out of high school
Missouri: - transfer

Others that might be ranked:

K-State: Johnson - signed out of high school
Michigan: Underwood - signed out of high school
Oklahoma: - transfer
Texas Tech: Morton - signed out of high school

Look at the most recent portal cycle. The biggest names to dip into the portal were Miami, Oklahoma (6-7) and Auburn (5-7).

We got the #1 QB in the portal. You know who signed 2-11? Oklahoma (6-7), Indiana, Miss St, Cal, Oregon St, Louisville, Duke, Missouri, Auburn (5-7).

Not exactly teams you'd want to model your program after, are they?


@cway313 I might as well kick over the hornets nest and tag you into this.

 

[SinisterCane]

As always. Miami has not had enough talent to compete for National Titles, but has always had more than enough to compete and win the ACC.

The greatest myth for Miami football is that we never had enough talent to compete. We just never had enough coaching to evaluate and develop.

Every coach that has failed here one of the first things they talk aboutwhen being hired was accountability,

whether it be Wiggins and Pope continuing to get snaps while leading the ACC and drop passes or Jacoby George & James Williams with his endless count of unsportsmanlike penalties

I really just don’t remember the last time a player has been benched for **** poor play at Miami

 

[DMoney]

Gonna have to hijack your thread for a minute here, but I think its probably a good place to post this (repost from January).

The portal reset the QB market initially, but things appear to have leveled out. Top teams didn't need to go to the portal for their QB this year for a **** good reason:

The majority of them will be going with guys they signed out of high school.

1 Ohio State: - Sayin* / Kienholz / St. Clair - signed out of high school
2 Notre Dame: Angeli/Carr - signed out of high school
3 Oregon: - transfer
4 Texas: Manning - signed out of high school
5 Penn State: Allar - signed out of high school
6 UGA: Stockton - signed out of high school
7 Arizona State: - transfer
8 Boise: Madsen - signed out of high school
9 Tennessee: Nico - signed out of high school
10 Indiana: - transfer

*If Sayin wins the job, technically he was a transfer. BUT he "transferred" as a true freshman, 11 days after enrolling at Alabama. So..

11 Ole Miss: Simmons - signed out of high school
12 SMU: Jennings - signed out of high school
13 BYU: - JUCO**
14 Clemson: Klubnik - signed out of high school
15 Iowa State: Becht - signed out of high school
16 Illinois - transfer
17 Alabama: Ty Simpson - signed out of high school
18 Miami - transfer
19 South Carolina: Sellers - signed out of high school
20 Syracuse: transfer

**BYU is the only team above the JUCO level that Retzlaff has ever played for.

Currently unranked teams likely to be in the preseason top 25:

LSU: Nussmeier - signed out of high school
UF: Lagway - signed out of high school
Texas A&M: Reed - signed out of high school
Missouri: - transfer

Others that might be ranked:

K-State: Johnson - signed out of high school
Michigan: Underwood - signed out of high school
Oklahoma: - transfer
Texas Tech: Morton - signed out of high school

Look at the most recent portal cycle. The biggest names to dip into the portal were Miami, Oklahoma (6-7) and Auburn (5-7).

We got the #1 QB in the portal. You know who signed 2-11? Oklahoma (6-7), Indiana, Miss St, Cal, Oregon St, Louisville, Duke, Missouri, Auburn (5-7).

Not exactly teams you'd want to model your program after, are they?


@cway313 I might as well kick over the hornets nest and tag you into this.

It’s going to be an interesting year because most of those guys haven’t played yet. Some will pop, some will flop. Ohio State thought they had a homegrown QB, and the next year they went in the Portal and found their championship QB.

You also have a loaded 2025 QB class coming in from high school. How many of those guys pull a Dante Moore and end up in the Portal?

I expect next year to be a hot Portal season.

 

[Alex_Dynamix]

The greatest myth for Miami football is that we never had enough talent to compete. We just never had enough coaching to evaluate and develop.

Every coach that has failed here one of the first things they talk aboutwhen being hired was accountability,

whether it be Wiggins and Pope continuing to get snaps while leading the ACC and drop passes or Jacoby George & James Williams with his endless count of unsportsmanlike penalties

I really just don’t remember the last time a player has been benched for **** poor play at Miami

When you're going up against against teams with 20 million plus rosters with 5 stars at every position, Coaching and development can only take you so far. If you gave the most genius X's and O's coach a roster full of 3 stars and 4 star JAGS, against a loaded roster hed prolly still get molly whopped. To win Natties you need rosters loaded with elite talent. To win the ACC nahhh thats just more likely **** coaching.

 

[cway313]

Gonna have to hijack your thread for a minute here, but I think its probably a good place to post this (repost from January).

The portal reset the QB market initially, but things appear to have leveled out. Top teams didn't need to go to the portal for their QB this year for a **** good reason:

The majority of them will be going with guys they signed out of high school.

1 Ohio State: - Sayin* / Kienholz / St. Clair - signed out of high school
2 Notre Dame: Angeli/Carr - signed out of high school
3 Oregon: - transfer
4 Texas: Manning - signed out of high school
5 Penn State: Allar - signed out of high school
6 UGA: Stockton - signed out of high school
7 Arizona State: - transfer
8 Boise: Madsen - signed out of high school
9 Tennessee: Nico - signed out of high school
10 Indiana: - transfer

*If Sayin wins the job, technically he was a transfer. BUT he "transferred" as a true freshman, 11 days after enrolling at Alabama. So..

11 Ole Miss: Simmons - signed out of high school
12 SMU: Jennings - signed out of high school
13 BYU: - JUCO**
14 Clemson: Klubnik - signed out of high school
15 Iowa State: Becht - signed out of high school
16 Illinois - transfer
17 Alabama: Ty Simpson - signed out of high school
18 Miami - transfer
19 South Carolina: Sellers - signed out of high school
20 Syracuse: transfer

**BYU is the only team above the JUCO level that Retzlaff has ever played for.

Currently unranked teams likely to be in the preseason top 25:

LSU: Nussmeier - signed out of high school
UF: Lagway - signed out of high school
Texas A&M: Reed - signed out of high school
Missouri: - transfer

Others that might be ranked:

K-State: Johnson - signed out of high school
Michigan: Underwood - signed out of high school
Oklahoma: - transfer
Texas Tech: Morton - signed out of high school

Look at the most recent portal cycle. The biggest names to dip into the portal were Miami, Oklahoma (6-7) and Auburn (5-7).

We got the #1 QB in the portal. You know who signed 2-11? Oklahoma (6-7), Indiana, Miss St, Cal, Oregon St, Louisville, Duke, Missouri, Auburn (5-7).

Not exactly teams you'd want to model your program after, are they?


@cway313 I might as well kick over the hornets nest and tag you into this.

The problem is the argument @DMoney wants to focus on ignores longevity. He wants everyone to focus on what is happening currently while not addressing anything about the instability it creates. We are in year 3 of having no viable option outside of QB1 because it's "cheaper..." I don't actually believe Mario wants to have a roster full of project QBs, he just hasn't been able to cross the finish line for whatever reason.

 

[cway313]

It’s going to be an interesting year because most of those guys haven’t played yet. Some will pop, some will flop. Ohio State thought they had a homegrown QB, and the next year they went in the Portal and found their championship QB.

You also have a loaded 2025 QB class coming in from high school. How many of those guys pull a Dante Moore and end up in the Portal?

I expect next year to be a hot Portal season.

The problem I have with your entire theory is why not pursue a Sayin or a Moore that portals out immediately instead of grabbing scout team QBs in high school?

 

[DMoney]

The problem I have with your entire theory is why not pursue a Sayin or a Moore that portals out immediately instead of grabbing scout team QBs in high school?

I think we should absolutely be in that market. We can get those guys because we have a good OL to sell. Daniels and Nix played more than Sayin and Moore, but they are guys with five-star traits who rehabbed themselves after transferring.

The next couple weeks will be big for Nickel. But if we don’t feel good about a backup QB on the roster for whatever reason, we could try to Portal a former blue-chipper to sit behind Beck for a year and develop.

Baylor is really good at this. They got a toolsy former four-star in Sawyer Robertson who struggled early in his career at Mississippi State. He developed into a stud. But they already have his replacement lined up with toolsy, blue-chip Auburn transfer Walker White.

 

[JHallCanes]

2 pages in and this is actually a great discussion even though there’s differing opinions

Where the **** am I?

I’m big on the portal as well but it’s not that cut and dry and will probably fluctuate year to year

I think given our place at the table we did a great job this year even though Beck is a risk with the injury. Nickel isn’t an elite QB prospect but he signed early, played zero bag games, probably didn’t cost us dearly, and is a proven winner with a lot of upside

Coleman seems to be in the same mold. For me I’m adding value to a high school QB that does this because it’s all part of the bigger puzzle

As of now I’d still lean towards portal next year but ideally you see Nickel show enough

 

[cway313]

I think we should absolutely be in that market. We can get those guys because we have a good OL to sell. Daniels and Nix played more than Sayin and Moore, but they are guys with five-star traits who rehabbed themselves after transferring.

The next couple weeks will be big for Nickel. But if we don’t feel good about a backup QB on the roster for whatever reason, we could try to Portal a former blue-chipper to sit behind Beck for a year and develop.

Baylor is really good at this. They got a toolsy former four-star in Sawyer Robertson who struggled early in his career at Mississippi State. He developed into a stud. But they already have his replacement lined up with toolsy, blue-chip Auburn transfer Walker White.

That strategy is a lot more sound than signing guys that recruits can't even remember their name. I am in wait and see mode with Nickel because his circumstances in high school were ELITE. That being said he still wasn't a household name.

 

[CANESCANES]

Personally im good with hitting the portal until we sign generational QB Neiman Lawrence

 

[We'retheBoss]

That’s still not a justification for only playing for one ACC title in 21 yrs, & having 0 crowns. Other programs, other teams from w/in our own former division who didn’t have the same amount of collective talent on their roster not only played for the ACC, but also won it w/ pedestrian QB play.

Again, this data is not to prove that the QB position is not important, b/c it absolutely is; but, rather it’s to show us fans that this has been another myth to gloss over the bigger issue, mismanagement of talent. If other coaches can overcome a lack of NFL caliber players on their roster + inept QB play, then we should’ve, as well, at least one or thrice since 2004.

1000% agree (respect my decision).

Early 00s Oklahoma was having double digit win seasons with Whites/Heupels/Hybls/and even something called a Paul Thompson

Urban's teams were winning double digits with the weirdest collection of QBs and athletes playing QB you'll ever see

Leach was putting out the most prolific QBs the NCAA has ever seen and they mostly amounted to nothing more than late round clipboard holders at the next level

Miami's failing to get anything out of multiple 4 and sometimes 5 star QBs over the last 20 years are a result of poor head coaching overall, a lack of want and ability to identify and hire coordinators with innovative (or even competent) schemes to make the QBs job easier

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

I think we should absolutely be in that market. We can get those guys because we have a good OL to sell. Daniels and Nix played more than Sayin and Moore, but they are guys with five-star traits who rehabbed themselves after transferring.

The next couple weeks will be big for Nickel. But if we don’t feel good about a backup QB on the roster for whatever reason, we could try to Portal a former blue-chipper to sit behind Beck for a year and develop.

Baylor is really good at this. They got a toolsy former four-star in Sawyer Robertson who struggled early in his career at Mississippi State. He developed into a stud. But they already have his replacement lined up with toolsy, blue-chip Auburn transfer Walker White.

If things are so bad that we don't have a viable backup QB on the roster for the second year in a row, its because we haven't been putting enough resources into signing high school QBs. There's very little talent in that room right now.

I know we've tried to go after big fish before (not just Rashada) and it didn't work out. Doesn't have to be every year. Or even every other year. But at some point we've just got to commit and do it.

If signing a top QB costs us players at other positions, then so be it. QB is THE position worth sacrificing for.

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

@Rellyrell Thanks for the time you took/take with the data crunching and research. Point made.

Unthanks for the sense of unease and nausea that I feel after digesting the content of what you wrote. I don't mean that as an insult in any way. It's simply how I feel after reliving the past when I hear names like Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon and SkinnerFlute. Throw in a Kirby Freeman or a Kyle Wright and I start feeling really sad and nauseous.

 

[cway313]

If things are so bad that we don't have a viable backup QB on the roster for the second year in a row, its because we haven't been putting enough resources into signing high school QBs. There's very little talent in that room right now.

I know we've tried to go after big fish before (not just Rashada) and it didn't work out. Doesn't have to be every year. Or even every other year. But at some point we've just got to commit and do it.

If signing a top QB costs us players at other positions, then so be it. QB is THE position worth sacrificing for.

THIRD*