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Miami opens +1 @ Louisville

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41-24
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IndayArtHauz said:
If the defense shows any kind of restraint, this is a win. By multiple scores.

You blindly run 5 guys upfield every single play, this will be a shootout that we will lose.
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This may indeed be a shootout. And if it is, I’ll take Cam.
 
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Genghis Cane said:
Line has moved in our favor to -5.5. Some books have it at -6.
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Yup. Will be very interested to see if there’s any pushback from sharps once people are up in Vegas. If you see the line drop an hour or so before kickoff, they likely took heavy UL money. We’ll see. But I really like the good guys today.

IMO this is an excellent matchup for us. Their defense is below average, to be nice. We should get 35+ easily. And their OL isn’t great and is banged up. Our DL is healthy for the first time all year. I think we get a lot of pressure today. I don’t see them scoring 40 without help from our offense or special teams. Give me 38-27 and we go 6-0 with back to back home games coming up where we’ll be multi-TD favorites. I think we win today by 2 scores.
 
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Even if the line does drop, it's not going below -5, we're too close to kickoff. So, the totality of the line move would still be in our favor, although I would much prefer the late move is to us and not them. We opened -3.5 and are now -5.5 at Pinnacle. Portends well...

Monday morning:
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Now:
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Back to -5 at DK. If you wanna bet Miami and haven’t, now is the time imo. I don’t think it gets back to -4.5. Late steam on Louisville always possible but I think the buyback already happened when it touched 6 at some places.
 
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JayCane20 said:
If we’re actually a playoff team we show up and win the game by 14+ and come home and demolish the Noles

If we’re going to make it to Charlotte and lose to an average Clemson team we’ll go up to louisville and play them close and win by 1-4 points and come home and let the Noles hang around.

If we’re going to miss out on Charlotte all together we go up there and get beat.

This game clarifies how the 2nd half of the season plays out, in my opinion.
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As I was typing this I knew the game was going to fall in the unmentioned category and I would have to return and bump it with an updated opinion. Not 14+ but more than 1-4 points.

Fell somewhere in both categories. Covered the spread but played them close. 3 times it felt like it was going to be a blowout or at least a 14+ point win. Going up 24-14 before the half and getting the ball back after half, but letting them kick the FG and then going up 31-17 right after half and killing their defense on a 7 minute scoring drive, only to let them tie it 90 seconds later. Then, going up 52-38 should have sealed it at 14 but couldn’t get off the field on their last drive.

Frustrating W but it was a road win against a good Louisville team. Same game last year and we walked out with an L. I’m not sure why but I just feel like the defense is going to figure it out at some point. Not turn into a great or even good unit but serviceable enough to let us blow someone out. The offense puts teams in uncomfortable spots and teams are going to press and get baited into mistakes and I hope our defenses capitalizes at some point. I don’t think anyone else threatens us like Louisville to expose our defense until Syracuse. That is the worst matchup on our entire schedule. That will be another 52-45 type game. GT to a lesser extent. I don’t think we have any problems with FSU, Duke, or Wake.
 
JayCane20 said:
As I was typing this I knew the game was going to fall in the unmentioned category and I would have to return and bump it with an updated opinion. Not 14+ but more than 1-4 points.

Fell somewhere in both categories. Covered the spread but played them close. 3 times it felt like it was going to be a blowout or at least a 14+ point win. Going up 24-14 before the half and getting the ball back after half, but letting them kick the FG and then going up 31-17 right after half and killing their defense on a 7 minute scoring drive, only to let them tie it 90 seconds later. Then, going up 52-38 should have sealed it at 14 but couldn’t get off the field on their last drive.

Frustrating W but it was a road win against a good Louisville team. Same game last year and we walked out with an L. I’m not sure why but I just feel like the defense is going to figure it out at some point. Not turn into a great or even good unit but serviceable enough to let us blow someone out. The offense puts teams in uncomfortable spots and teams are going to press and get baited into mistakes and I hope our defenses capitalizes at some point. I don’t think anyone else threatens us like Louisville to expose our defense until Syracuse. That is the worst matchup on our entire schedule. That will be another 52-45 type game. GT to a lesser extent. I don’t think we have any problems with FSU, Duke, or Wake.
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You know what’s crazy? We only trailed for 2 minutes the whole game. Early 1st quarter. It didn’t feel like that at times. But we either had the lead or it was tied the whole rest of the game.

Our postgame win expectancy was really high too. Over 90%.

A game we definitely deserved to win. We were the better team.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
You know what’s crazy? We only trailed for 2 minutes the whole game. Early 1st quarter. It didn’t feel like that at times. But we either had the lead or it was tied the whole rest of the game.

Our postgame win expectancy was really high too. Over 90%.

A game we definitely deserved to win. We were the better team.
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For sure. I never felt even the slightest we would lose and don’t think anyone in our section did either. It just felt more inconvenienced than anything for us sick of watching close games.
 
Maybe it's cope, but I feel like the defense was starting to hold Louiville in the second quarter and it got to 24-14. But after the KO and fumble, all **** broke loose lol
 
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