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Miami opens +1 @ Louisville

TooColdToHold said:
There’s a very small chance of that happening. This game will be a dogfight.
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Believe its higher than you think. Nearly all of the explosives we've given up have been on blown assignments. We're coming off a bye week. Guidy is a good coach. Am confident we'll get it sorted
 

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Mario has been here for 2 1/2 seasons and I think the only game that played out exactly how I thought it would was Florida. Trying to predict them is a fools task and I’m trying to embrace the fun of it. We do play down and we do play with our food and in general I don’t think we’re particularly smart or well coached. Is what it is, probably always will be to a degree with Mario. We have more talent but not to an overwhelming degree on defense.

Louisville has plenty to beat us if we play like we have. There’s reasons to think we won’t. We’ll see. You’re deluded if you think you have a good feeling about how any of our games will play out, even if you end up being right. That said, the spread is too low. Should be 7.5
 
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Some advanced numbers here. Couple things that stick out to me:

Look how good we’ve been on early downs vs how bad their defense has been. Also, they’ve been better against the run. Poor against the pass. Advantage: good guys. I know it’s on the road and they’ll be fired up blah blah blah. I don’t care. We’re dropping 40 on these cats. I’ll be real disappointed if we don’t.

Their offense has obviously been good. And our defensive numbers look great but this is more of a play by play look. Explosives don’t kill you when you look at things like success rates. But I think we score and we score a lot. If we have to win another shootout, so be it. It’d just be nice to get the game script we were so excited about all summer when all our pass rushers are actually healthy. Remember, Bain, Mesidor, Baron and Alston have all been healthy for a collective THREE plays this season. Get up early and put them in obvious passing situations and see what the goons up front can do.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
View attachment 307215

Some advanced numbers here. Couple things that stick out to me:

Look how good we’ve been on early downs vs how bad their defense has been. Also, they’ve been better against the run. Poor against the pass. Advantage: good guys. I know it’s on the road and they’ll be fired up blah blah blah. I don’t care. We’re dropping 40 on these cats. I’ll be real disappointed if we don’t.

Their offense has obviously been good. And our defensive numbers look great but this is more of a play by play look. Explosives don’t kill you when you look at things like success rates. But I think we score and we score a lot. If we have to win another shootout, so be it. It’d just be nice to get the game script we were so excited about all summer when all our pass rushers are actually healthy. Remember, Bain, Mesidor, Baron and Alston have all been healthy for a collective THREE plays this season. Get up early and put them in obvious passing situations and see what the goons up front can do.
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Like you I’d prefer to see us drop 40+ here, but I’d take that projected 35-26 win too.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
View attachment 307215

Some advanced numbers here. Couple things that stick out to me:

Look how good we’ve been on early downs vs how bad their defense has been. Also, they’ve been better against the run. Poor against the pass. Advantage: good guys. I know it’s on the road and they’ll be fired up blah blah blah. I don’t care. We’re dropping 40 on these cats. I’ll be real disappointed if we don’t.

Their offense has obviously been good. And our defensive numbers look great but this is more of a play by play look. Explosives don’t kill you when you look at things like success rates. But I think we score and we score a lot. If we have to win another shootout, so be it. It’d just be nice to get the game script we were so excited about all summer when all our pass rushers are actually healthy. Remember, Bain, Mesidor, Baron and Alston have all been healthy for a collective THREE plays this season. Get up early and put them in obvious passing situations and see what the goons up front can do.
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Came here to post about this



Their pass offense is really good, run offense ok.
Pass defense is terrible, run defense is really good.

So this could be a good ole shootout, I trust our QB and offense in a game like that. We have been lights out in the forth quarter so lets see if they can keep up for a whole game
 
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So what did UVA do to contain their offense? It was pretty much non existent until the second half of the 4th Q
 
we gotta win by 30 or the committee will have us outside of the top 10 with another close game.
 
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I’m more worried about being FSUs Super Bowl the following week than I am about this one after a bye week and being healthier than we have all season
 
No, the +1 was a look ahead line from the summer? (low limits, then off the board and just gradually put up here and then in lookahead games throughout the year)

That hasn't been the line since summer

Last week in some shops that were dealing lookahead it was Miami -6ish…Then re-opened around -4 or 4.5 pretty much everywhere Sunday or Monday.
 
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Hoyacane1620 said:
So what did UVA do to contain their offense? It was pretty much non existent until the second half of the 4th Q
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Louisville drove into the red zone on their first drive and got stuffed on a 4th and 1.

Got a 15 yard penalty that killed the 2nd drive.

Had multiple explosives on the 3rd drive for a TD.

Got a stop late in the half on a 4th and goal so they took over at their own 3 and they just tried to get to the half.

Got a 60+ yard pass to Brooks coming out of the half but false start on 1st and goal from the 8 they had to settle for 3.

The UVA punter was a complete clown and had 2 of the worst punts I’ve ever seen. Zach Feagles on steroids, this one he kinda half whiffed and his his lineman in the back? It wound up “blocked”, Louisville got the ball on the UVA 14 and scored a TD.

Another dumb 15 yard penalty kills the next drive.

Drive to the UVA 20 and miss a FG.

Interception.

Game winning 11 play 67 yard drive.

Louisville is average. Miami is easily a TD better than this team on a neutral. They were 3/10 on 3rd down and got outgained by UVA. Thoroughly beaten soundly by SMU. Played OK against ND but couldn’t get out of their own way. Their wins are against Austin Peay, Jacksonville St, GT where they blocked a FG and returned it for a TD and were outgained, and this UVA game they could have easily lost.

It’s college football, anything can happen. It’s not like our last 2 games should give us some limitless confidence. But we have the better football team, full stop. Better roster, much better QB. Just play a clean game and we win by a TD+. If we don’t lose the turnover battle and we don’t lose on special teams, this will be a nice semi-comfortable win.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Louisville drove into the red zone on their first drive and got stuffed on a 4th and 1.

Got a 15 yard penalty that killed the 2nd drive.

Had multiple explosives on the 3rd drive for a TD.

Got a stop late in the half on a 4th and goal so they took over at their own 3 and they just tried to get to the half.

Got a 60+ yard pass to Brooks coming out of the half but false start on 1st and goal from the 8 they had to settle for 3.

The UVA punter was a complete clown and had 2 of the worst punts I’ve ever seen. Zach Feagles on steroids, this one he kinda half whiffed and his his lineman in the back? It wound up “blocked”, Louisville got the ball on the UVA 14 and scored a TD.

Another dumb 15 yard penalty kills the next drive.

Drive to the UVA 20 and miss a FG.

Interception.

Game winning 11 play 67 yard drive.

Louisville is average. Miami is easily a TD better than this team on a neutral. They were 3/10 on 3rd down and got outgained by UVA. Thoroughly beaten soundly by SMU. Played OK against ND but couldn’t get out of their own way. Their wins are against Austin Peay, Jacksonville St, GT where they blocked a FG and returned it for a TD and were outgained, and this UVA game they could have easily lost.

It’s college football, anything can happen. It’s not like our last 2 games should give us some limitless confidence. But we have the better football team, full stop. Better roster, much better QB. Just play a clean game and we win by a TD+. If we don’t lose the turnover battle and we don’t lose on special teams, this will be a nice semi-comfortable win.
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I tuned in and out of the game - there were too many good ones on at the same time last weekend. It just never seemed like either team was doing anything most of the game...
 
I saw we were -186 on the ML yesterday and are now -214 at Pinnacle (was -3.5 -112, now -5 -107).

Good shït. Yeah, it’s early in the week and this line will move more, but I’d be shocked if goes back to -3.5 and like what I’m seeing.
 
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Hoyacane1620 said:
I tuned in and out of the game - there were too many good ones on at the same time last weekend. It just never seemed like either team was doing anything most of the game...
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They’re both average. The fanbase is growing somewhat tired with Brohm. Remember, they had the good start to the year and made it to Charlotte. But after beating us, they lost at home to a very average kentucky team. They got flat embarrassed by FSU’s defense in Charlotte and lost to Brock Glenn, who went 8/21 for 55 yards. In a full football game. And then they got pasted in their bowl game. Started this year on a 3 game losing streak and played 2 FCS schools to start. Beat GT in a game where they didn’t play well at all, and then lost 2 in a row. Headed into last week, they were 3-5 in their last 8 games, again 2 of those wins vs FCS teams. And they didn’t exactly dominate last week either. UVA very easily could have beat them.

If both teams play well, we win. It’s a simple as that. We are a better football team. But we can’t fumble our opening drive of the game and sleepwalk into 3 turnovers. We can’t forget how to tackle. We can’t throw egregious pick sixes. We don’t have to play our A+ game to win. Just play a solid B to B+ game and we win the game by a touchdown or more. I still feel this is a very good football team, we just have to find a way to stop giving up 50+ yard plays. Down to down, on both sides, this team is excellent.
 
I actually like the way we play D. Yes, there's a greater chance of big plays, but playing more conservatively shortens the game. More possessions per team helps the team with the better offense, which is us.
 
Hoyacane1620 said:
I tuned in and out of the game - there were too many good ones on at the same time last weekend. It just never seemed like either team was doing anything most of the game...
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Then why would you make a comment as if you watched the game? Typical CIS behavior.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
View attachment 307215

Some advanced numbers here. Couple things that stick out to me:

Look how good we’ve been on early downs vs how bad their defense has been. Also, they’ve been better against the run. Poor against the pass. Advantage: good guys. I know it’s on the road and they’ll be fired up blah blah blah. I don’t care. We’re dropping 40 on these cats. I’ll be real disappointed if we don’t.

Their offense has obviously been good. And our defensive numbers look great but this is more of a play by play look. Explosives don’t kill you when you look at things like success rates. But I think we score and we score a lot. If we have to win another shootout, so be it. It’d just be nice to get the game script we were so excited about all summer when all our pass rushers are actually healthy. Remember, Bain, Mesidor, Baron and Alston have all been healthy for a collective THREE plays this season. Get up early and put them in obvious passing situations and see what the goons up front can do.
Click to expand...
Where do you find those numbers, for future reference?
 
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