Learning from UT Game: Things to look for at Boone

[Jeeperaf]

I can't believe some have been talking about this all week.

Have a loss against Cincy in recent past and you are surprised? Subpar 15 yr Hurricane legacy...

Richt is returning rhe program back to Hurricane standard.

Go Canes. Unleash ****.

 

[Canezum5]

Lu, how do you feel about all of the off pressure they brought in the front seven combined with the soft coverage on the backend?

you gotta expect us to force them to defend the short passing game playing coverage that soft right?

I feel like Berris Coley and Njoku should EAT this game.

Im surprised you didn't mention how soft App played in the back end.

 

[supacane]

I dont care how much they hype this up. We have a competent coaching staff and a actual defense. Like I said, quote it. We knock their QB out the game

Sent from my SM-N930T using Tapatalk

 

[ThomasM]

I dont care how much they hype this up. We have a competent coaching staff and a actual defense. Like I said, quote it. We knock their QB out the game

Sent from my SM-N930T using Tapatalk

I hope they have an ambulance ready. Seriously.

 

[BabyManiac]

They also raise the vig for games or totals if it's getting hit on one side. Every Casino is different, the two big ones not so much. I think I paid a 25% vig for my bet of Miami total wins for the season. They kept it at 6.5 games but raised the vig until it got out of hand the raised the game total. It went up to 30% not much after I bet it, then to 7 games total within a few days. I don't know what it ended at right before the season started.

I got it at 8 +140 at the Westgate 3 weeks ago

 

[LustNCanes]

Great write up Lu

X's 2

3x

 

[LustNCanes]

- In App State's lone comparable game (UTenn) this year, they allowed 6 TFLs and no sacks.

What that means for us?

I would be surprised if we don't see another double digit TFL game or near it for our defense. Yes, our two previous opponents were not as good. Yes, App State runs the ball more. But, I think you'll see Diaz use the blitz to stop the run, as he's known to do.

- 2 of those TFLs came from Kendall Vickers, UTenn's DT who was a former 3-star, 225 pound SSDE a few years back. Through 2 games, he's arguably been their most productive DL from a stats perspective.

What that means for us?

I don't believe Vickers is as talented as any of our top 3 DTs. Make of that what you wish. Diaz and Kul can place rotate DTs against their weaker Guard for the entire afternoon. App State does have a pro prospect listed along their OL interior.

- UT's Derek Barnett was more or less neutralized against App St.

What that means for us?

Barnett is a likely top 15 pick in next year's NFL draft. A former 4 star, he's been really productive. He's our Chad Thomas, though his build and position as an Edge rusher are more comparable to D-Jax against App state. Basically, don't expect a ton of sacks on Saturday unless App State goes down huge early, which is not entirely expected - especially if the weather fails to hold up. Their passing game and QB's style doesn't lend itself to sacks.

- UT's leading solo tackler was their FS

What that means for us?

Manny Diaz likes to fit a particular coverage behind his aggressive fronts. Without going into that detail, it places the Safeties in a high pressure situation where, if the other team goes spread, the two safeties are expected to read the inside WR and many times fill the alley. Watch their feet at the snap. Instead of the 2 steps back you often saw last year, our 2 deep Safeties will remain relatively stagnant, pause or even lean forward. It's a significant change in how to play defense. I actually half expect Diaz to go slightly away from this coverage and show some single high safety with Jamal Carter coming straight downhill to fill. Don't be surprised if one of our three leading tacklers is either Carter, Jaquan or Jenkins.

- Two top tacklers for UT were both LBs

What that means for us?

This one is a little more obvious, I think. We're playing a zone option team. Our LBs are going to have to play well and tackle well on both inside and outside zones. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but I think Shaq and Pinkney are made for stopping this type of offense. When the ball snaps, Shaq will already be halfway to blowing up his gap. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys end up with double digit tackles for the afternoon.

- App State's QB was 15/23 for 108 total passing yards

What that means for us?

I've discussed this throughout the week. The reason I'm confused by the vegas line and people's concerns is because our primary soft spot as a defense is not an area their QB has shown to accurately hit. What's more, against the type of competition they'll face on Saturday, App State has failed to show the ability to push the ball downfield. Of course, let's consider that Tennessee has two pro prospects at Corner. Luckily for us, I believe we clearly have one and Redwine is young and playing solidly.

- App State was 3/13 on 3rd down conversions vs UTenn

What that means for us?

It goes along with the above about their QB's accuracy. I'll believe it when I see it. First things first: we have to keep them behind schedule and in uncomfortable 3rd down scenarios. If Saturday ends up being a rainy muck, this becomes even more important. You'd think our pass coverage is the most important key for this 3rd down conversion bullet point. I think it's a singular position: DT.

Thinking back to Diaz's scheme and its weak points, one of the biggest pressure points is whether a DT can hold up inside against a double team so that it places less pressure on the MLB getting chipped at the second level, which places less strain on the Safeties being asked to fill. Therefore, Kendrick Norton, please stand up. My personal perspective is you're going to see a hard, hard slanting defense and lots of gap exchange on 1st and 2nd down. Diaz will try to force as many 3rd and 7+ as he feasibly can.

- App State and Tennessee played an incredibly tight game and went into OT

What that means for us?

I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.

Lamb's completion percentage is actually higher than Kaaya's and both have scored 2 TD's. Difference: Miami is ranked where app store will never be.

Well fk me, even a hillbilly can be right once in a while

If App wins Saturday they will likely be ranked in the Coaches poll as they are already receiving votes. They would probably move into the receiving votes category in the AP. If App can win into late October and Georgia Southern is undefeated, the team of that game is likely to be ranked after. Given that information: Miami is only a 3.5 point favorite despite around 80% of the money flowing in to Miami.

In other words, Vegas is also gambling on this game being an App win as they will keep all of that money flowing to Miami and they wouldn't do that without having a good reason to believe App State will win. Otherwise, they are just throwing their own money away by not moving the line to balance out betting to ensure they at least break even.

In a nutshell: the sports analyst who set the lines in Vegas are hedging on an App State cover of the spread, with the line this close, they are calling for an App State win.

SUCK IT!

lol on this whole post. So you think all the Casino's are keeping it at 3.5 because they think AP is going to win? You believe some internet site that says 80% of the money is going towards Miami? Sorry, it doesn't work that way, lol. I've seen lines move in smaller Casino's when someone put's 5 or 10k on a game. Not sure where you got your information but it's wrong.

Honestly I wouldnt mind dropping 5k on this game, I feel that confident CaneOil.

 

[jw410]

This is the type of game that Golden and even Shannon would lose (pitt, duke, kansas state vriginia USF boston college etc.). to me this is as important as any other game, because it will gauge whether the coaching will elevate the talent to overcome the adversity (little or none) they are likely to face at some point. i think this is what richt alluded to when he said we have not been "hit in the gut yet" (or something similar).

my opinion is that the coaching will elevate the talent and not neuter it as in years past.

Lu, thanks for the specific match ups/things to watch.

This game is hugely important for one simple reason: UM loses, and all the goodwill and momentum that has been building will go right out the window because everyone will just assume it's more of the same old ****. You can't lose to a nothing FCS team full of 2 stars like this and expect to keep any momentum with UM fans.

UM fans are in a fragile state with this program. Lose, and Hard Rok will be dead again. We'll lose all the traction we've been building, and all the excitement will dissipate like a fart in a hurricane.

It's also important because I'll probably lose my 3.5k in winning the over 6.5 games this year. lol.

That's all you bet! I saw that too and my eyes lit up like someone just offered me a $50 an hour job. 6.5 games..lol

 

[TheUuuuu]

- In App State's lone comparable game (UTenn) this year, they allowed 6 TFLs and no sacks.

What that means for us?

I would be surprised if we don't see another double digit TFL game or near it for our defense. Yes, our two previous opponents were not as good. Yes, App State runs the ball more. But, I think you'll see Diaz use the blitz to stop the run, as he's known to do.

- 2 of those TFLs came from Kendall Vickers, UTenn's DT who was a former 3-star, 225 pound SSDE a few years back. Through 2 games, he's arguably been their most productive DL from a stats perspective.

What that means for us?

I don't believe Vickers is as talented as any of our top 3 DTs. Make of that what you wish. Diaz and Kul can place rotate DTs against their weaker Guard for the entire afternoon. App State does have a pro prospect listed along their OL interior.

- UT's Derek Barnett was more or less neutralized against App St.

What that means for us?

Barnett is a likely top 15 pick in next year's NFL draft. A former 4 star, he's been really productive. He's our Chad Thomas, though his build and position as an Edge rusher are more comparable to D-Jax against App state. Basically, don't expect a ton of sacks on Saturday unless App State goes down huge early, which is not entirely expected - especially if the weather fails to hold up. Their passing game and QB's style doesn't lend itself to sacks.

- UT's leading solo tackler was their FS

What that means for us?

Manny Diaz likes to fit a particular coverage behind his aggressive fronts. Without going into that detail, it places the Safeties in a high pressure situation where, if the other team goes spread, the two safeties are expected to read the inside WR and many times fill the alley. Watch their feet at the snap. Instead of the 2 steps back you often saw last year, our 2 deep Safeties will remain relatively stagnant, pause or even lean forward. It's a significant change in how to play defense. I actually half expect Diaz to go slightly away from this coverage and show some single high safety with Jamal Carter coming straight downhill to fill. Don't be surprised if one of our three leading tacklers is either Carter, Jaquan or Jenkins.

- Two top tacklers for UT were both LBs

What that means for us?

This one is a little more obvious, I think. We're playing a zone option team. Our LBs are going to have to play well and tackle well on both inside and outside zones. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but I think Shaq and Pinkney are made for stopping this type of offense. When the ball snaps, Shaq will already be halfway to blowing up his gap. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys end up with double digit tackles for the afternoon.

- App State's QB was 15/23 for 108 total passing yards

What that means for us?

I've discussed this throughout the week. The reason I'm confused by the vegas line and people's concerns is because our primary soft spot as a defense is not an area their QB has shown to accurately hit. What's more, against the type of competition they'll face on Saturday, App State has failed to show the ability to push the ball downfield. Of course, let's consider that Tennessee has two pro prospects at Corner. Luckily for us, I believe we clearly have one and Redwine is young and playing solidly.

- App State was 3/13 on 3rd down conversions vs UTenn

What that means for us?

It goes along with the above about their QB's accuracy. I'll believe it when I see it. First things first: we have to keep them behind schedule and in uncomfortable 3rd down scenarios. If Saturday ends up being a rainy muck, this becomes even more important. You'd think our pass coverage is the most important key for this 3rd down conversion bullet point. I think it's a singular position: DT.

Thinking back to Diaz's scheme and its weak points, one of the biggest pressure points is whether a DT can hold up inside against a double team so that it places less pressure on the MLB getting chipped at the second level, which places less strain on the Safeties being asked to fill. Therefore, Kendrick Norton, please stand up. My personal perspective is you're going to see a hard, hard slanting defense and lots of gap exchange on 1st and 2nd down. Diaz will try to force as many 3rd and 7+ as he feasibly can.

- App State and Tennessee played an incredibly tight game and went into OT

What that means for us?

I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.

Final prediction (score)?

****.. Do the people on this board have such short memories that you have to paste an article that was just 5 posting away from yours. Just post your simple reply and I'm pretty sure I/We can find out the reference

You scrolled all the way down again just to read my message - go **** yourself come mierda.

 

[kryptonite]

Thanks for a great write up, the effort is appreciated.

 

[John Saunders]

If Golden was still here, we would lose this game. Now, I think we spar for a quarter and open it up. I was not impressed with their offense vs TN.