- In App State's lone comparable game (UTenn) this year, they allowed 6 TFLs and no sacks.
What that means for us?
I would be surprised if we don't see another double digit TFL game or near it for our defense. Yes, our two previous opponents were not as good. Yes, App State runs the ball more. But, I think you'll see Diaz use the blitz to stop the run, as he's known to do.
- 2 of those TFLs came from Kendall Vickers, UTenn's DT who was a former 3-star, 225 pound SSDE a few years back. Through 2 games, he's arguably been their most productive DL from a stats perspective.
What that means for us?
I don't believe Vickers is as talented as any of our top 3 DTs. Make of that what you wish. Diaz and Kul can place rotate DTs against their weaker Guard for the entire afternoon. App State does have a pro prospect listed along their OL interior.
- UT's Derek Barnett was more or less neutralized against App St.
What that means for us?
Barnett is a likely top 15 pick in next year's NFL draft. A former 4 star, he's been really productive. He's our Chad Thomas, though his build and position as an Edge rusher are more comparable to D-Jax against App state. Basically, don't expect a ton of sacks on Saturday unless App State goes down huge early, which is not entirely expected - especially if the weather fails to hold up. Their passing game and QB's style doesn't lend itself to sacks.
- UT's leading solo tackler was their FS
What that means for us?
Manny Diaz likes to fit a particular coverage behind his aggressive fronts. Without going into that detail, it places the Safeties in a high pressure situation where, if the other team goes spread, the two safeties are expected to read the inside WR and many times fill the alley. Watch their feet at the snap. Instead of the 2 steps back you often saw last year, our 2 deep Safeties will remain relatively stagnant, pause or even lean forward. It's a significant change in how to play defense. I actually half expect Diaz to go slightly away from this coverage and show some single high safety with Jamal Carter coming straight downhill to fill. Don't be surprised if one of our three leading tacklers is either Carter, Jaquan or Jenkins.
- Two top tacklers for UT were both LBs
What that means for us?
This one is a little more obvious, I think. We're playing a zone option team. Our LBs are going to have to play well and tackle well on both inside and outside zones. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but I think Shaq and Pinkney are made for stopping this type of offense. When the ball snaps, Shaq will already be halfway to blowing up his gap. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys end up with double digit tackles for the afternoon.
- App State's QB was 15/23 for 108 total passing yards
What that means for us?
I've discussed this throughout the week. The reason I'm confused by the vegas line and people's concerns is because our primary soft spot as a defense is not an area their QB has shown to accurately hit. What's more, against the type of competition they'll face on Saturday, App State has failed to show the ability to push the ball downfield. Of course, let's consider that Tennessee has two pro prospects at Corner. Luckily for us, I believe we clearly have one and Redwine is young and playing solidly.
- App State was 3/13 on 3rd down conversions vs UTenn
What that means for us?
It goes along with the above about their QB's accuracy. I'll believe it when I see it. First things first: we have to keep them behind schedule and in uncomfortable 3rd down scenarios. If Saturday ends up being a rainy muck, this becomes even more important. You'd think our pass coverage is the most important key for this 3rd down conversion bullet point. I think it's a singular position: DT.
Thinking back to Diaz's scheme and its weak points, one of the biggest pressure points is whether a DT can hold up inside against a double team so that it places less pressure on the MLB getting chipped at the second level, which places less strain on the Safeties being asked to fill. Therefore, Kendrick Norton, please stand up. My personal perspective is you're going to see a hard, hard slanting defense and lots of gap exchange on 1st and 2nd down. Diaz will try to force as many 3rd and 7+ as he feasibly can.
- App State and Tennessee played an incredibly tight game and went into OT
What that means for us?
I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.
